The top two teams in the country both went down on Saturday afternoon, and both upsets were predicted here last week by yours truly. There are sure to be many more upsets this week, but which ones? I'll answer that question later, but first I've got to tell you where everybody stands at this point, including the 9 teams that have yet to lose this season. Here they are, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (This Week) (Overall) Rating (AP)
1. (2) Wisconsin (2-0) (8-2) -21.28 (14)
2. (5) North Carolina (2-0) (8-2) -19.65 (5)
3. (8) Kentucky (0-1) (8-1) -19.24 (3)
4. (1) Marquette (2-0) (9-0) -18.16 (11)
5. (4) Ohio State (0-1) (8-1) -16.51 (2)
6. (7) Syracuse (2-0) (10-0) -16.22 (1)
7. (NR) Murray State (1-0) (10-0) -16.05 (24)
8. (6) Indiana (1-0) (9-0) -15.50 (18)
9. (15) Stanford (0-0) (8-1) -15.42 (31)
10. (14) Baylor (0-0) (7-0) -14.89 (6)
11. (18) BYU (2-0) (8-2) -14.58 (NR)
12. (13) Duke (2-0) (9-1) -13.77 (7)
13. (16) Michigan State (2-0) (8-2) -13.74 (21)
14. (19) Kansas (2-0) (7-2) -13.47 (12)
15. (NR) Long Beach State (0-2) (4-5) -12.92 (38)
16. (25) Southern Miss (2-0) (7-2) -12.84 (NR)
17. (17) Missouri (2-0) (9-0) -12.70 (10)
18. (NR) Louisville (2-0) (9-0) -12.12 (4)
19. (3) Florida (2-0) (7-2) -11.98 (13)
20. (22) Saint Mary's (0-0) (5-1) -11.71 (NR)
21. (NR) Marshall (1-1) (6-2) -11.61 (NR)
22. (NR) Harvard (1-1) (9-1) -11.32 (27)
23. (NR) UNLV (0-1) (9-2) -11.12 (30)
24. (NR) Memphis (1-1) (5-3) -10.89 (34)
25. (9) Georgetown (1-0) (8-1) -10.42 (16)
Dropped Out
(12) Iona (1-1) (7-2) -10.02 (NR)
(23) Wichita State (2-0) (7-2) -8.57 (41)
(20) Purdue (2-0) (9-2) -7.26 (NR)
(24) Middle Tennessee (1-1) (9-2) -7.18 (NR)
(21) Wagner (1-1) (7-3) -6.67 (NR)
(11) Alabama (1-1) (8-2) -6.60 (23)
(10) Richmond (0-1) (6-3) -1.07 (NR)
Ranked Teams By Conference
Big 10 - 4
Big East - 4
Big 12 - 3
CUSA - 3
ACC - 2
SEC - 2
WCC - 2
OVC - 1
Pac 12 - 1
Big West - 1
Ivy - 1
MWC - 1
12 conference are represented in my top 25, making for a very diverse group, and no conference has more than 4 teams near the top. The top 3 teams this week are not among the 9 undefeated teams, but each has good reason for their ranking. There are two undefeated teams that have not cracked my top 25, Xavier and Illinois.
Wisconsin may have two losses, but both are to other teams currently ranked in the top 4 of my rankings, and both were close games. They have beaten both UNLV and BYU, who are both underrated so far this season, and both of those victories were by double digits. Unfortunately, they don't play another ranked team until the new year, which could hurt their ranking by dropping their strength of schedule.
Kentucky moved up this week despite suffering their first loss, but the loss was to undefeated Indiana, it was on the road, and it took a last-second buzzer-beating three-pointer to take them down, so the fact that they kept themselves in the game and had a great chance of winning improved my opinion of them, and made them the clear favorite in the SEC.
Murray State made a huge move this week to join my top 10, with their win over Memphis on the road last night taking them from the lower reaches of my rankings into the premier level. They also had a huge win over a very good Dayton team this week, and just last week beat Southern Miss, which is also sitting among the top 25 teams above as we speak.
The Pac 12's lone ranked team this week is Stanford, a team that is not getting a lot of recognition nationally despite a 9-1 record. They haven't beaten a team yet that is near the rankings, but 6 of their 8 wins are by at least 15 points, and the nearly beat AP #1 Syracuse on a neutral court during Thanksgiving weekend. The national rankings don't have a Pac 12 team ranked currently, but they should before long.
Long Beach State made the top 25 this week despite having a losing record overall and losing both of its games this week. It may seem a little strange, but their losses this week show how good they really are. They lost by 8 points at Kansas, then by 6 at North Carolina later in the week. Home court advantage is currently worth about 8.5 points, which means that on a neutral court or at home in California the 49ers may have come away as the victor in those games.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
(15) Wisconsin at Milwaukee - Badgers by 8
Florida Atlantic at (16) Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 18
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at (18) Michigan - Wolverines by 28
Jackson State at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 31
Wednesday
USC-Upstate at (2) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 26
Bethune-Cookman at (7) Baylor - Bears by 30
UTEP at UNLV - Rebels by 24
Thursday
Kennesaw State at (8) Missouri - Tigers by 39
Savannah State at (15) Wisconsin - Badgers by 34
North Carolina A&T at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 33
Saturday
(1) Syracuse at North Carolina State - Orange by 4
(2) Ohio State at South Carolina - Buckeyes by 13
Chattanooga at (3) Kentucky - Wildcats by 34
Memphis at (4) Louisville - Cardinals by 10
Appalachian State at (6) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 37
(7) Baylor at BYU - Cougars by 8
Northern Colorado at (11) Marquette - Golden Eagles by 23
(22) Texas A&M at (13) Florida - Gators by 21
South Carolina State at (14) Pittsburgh - Panthers by 33
(16) Mississippi State at Detroit - Bulldogs by 4
American at (17) Georgetown - Hoyas by 24
Alabama A&M at (18) Michigan - Wolverines by 27
UNLV at (19) Illinois - Fighting Illini by 2
Notre Dame at (20) Indiana - Hoosiers by 26
(21) Alabama at Kansas State - Wildcats by 4
Bowling Green at (23) Michigan State - Spartans by 27
Houston Baptist at (24) Creighton - Bluejays by 34
Indiana State at (25) Vanderbilt - Commodores by 12
San Diego at Stanford - Cardinal by 38
Bethune-Cookman at Saint Mary's - Gaels by 27
Mississippi at Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 18
High Point at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 29
Sunday
William & Mary at (8) Missouri - Tigers by 41
Oral Roberts at (9) Xavier - Musketeers by 18
Holy Cross at (10) Connecticut - Huskies by 18
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 46-8 (.852)
Upsets: 4-1 (.800)
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