Wednesday, December 14, 2011

College Bowl Predictions (Part 1)

There are 35 college bowl games, and they begin this Saturday and run clear until January 9th, when LSU and Alabama will face off in the so-called national championship game (more on that later). Between now and then, almost every team that finished with at least a .500 record (plus UCLA) will get a chance to show how good they are against a good team from another conference. Here are my picks for the winners of each game. Please note that I am using the original names for each bowl rather than those annoying corporate sponsor names.

Upset picks are in italics.

December 17th

New Mexico - Temple vs. Wyoming - Owls by 13


Temple is one of the best rushing teams in the country, with Bernard Pierce leading the way. Wyoming is one of the worst teams against the run in the country, which means this should be a blowout for the Owls.


Humanitarian - Ohio vs. Utah State - Bobcats by 1

Utah State has won five straight games to end the season, but none of them was in impressive fashion. Ohio won their division of the MAC and had a huge lead in the MAC championship game before letting Northern Illinois come back and win on a game-ending field goal. Should be a close game between two teams with no real bowl experience.

New Orleans - San Diego State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin' Cajuns by 6

San Diego State and Ronnie Hillman are a force on offense, making their second straight bowl appearance, and while last year they played at home in San Diego, this year they are heading to Louisiana, which happens to be the home state of their opponent, which is making its first bowl appearance in 41 years. Home field should be enough to win this one.

December 20th

St. Petersburg - Florida International vs. Marshall - Golden Panthers by 15

The team with the best record in Florida this season takes on a team that barely made the postseason in a game played in the state of Florida. The Golden Panthers will likely add to their school-record 8 wins against one of the weakest teams still playing.

December 21st

Poinsettia - (18) TCU vs. Louisiana Tech - Horned Frogs by 5

Everyone knows about TCU, how they upset Boise State after Coach Gary Patterson made one of the gutsiest calls in history by going for two points rather than one while trailing by a point in the final minute against the Broncos. Their opponents, the Bulldogs, have been largely overlooked, but they have won 7 straight games and wrapped up the WAC title a month ago, and the Frogs may be surprised at how tough this game will be, but I still don't expect them to blow it.

December 22nd

Las Vegas - Arizona State vs. (7) Boise State - Broncos by 10

Early in the season, this looked like a marquee matchup, maybe even a BCS matchup, but ASU closed the season with 4 straight losses when a win in any of the first 3 would have clinched them a berth in the Pac 12 title game. Meanwhile, Boise State lost a heartbreaker to TCU, which cost them the conference title and a guaranteed BCS berth. The Broncos are still an elite team, while the Sun Devils have lost their coach and their purpose, while Boise quarterback Kellen Moore has a chance to put his win record out of reach by pushing it to 50 in his career.

December 24th

Hawaii - Nevada vs. (21) Southern Miss - Golden Eagles by 7

Take away two head-scratching losses to Marshall and UAB, and Southern Miss would be looking at a BCS opponent right now instead of the Wolf Pack, who were not nearly the team that beat Boise State last season after losing their quarterback and top running back to the NFL. Instead, they get the consolation prize of Hawaii on Christmas Eve, which probably isn't that bad.

December 26th

Independence - Missouri vs. North Carolina - Tigers by 8

Missouri was an average team from the most underrated conference, while North Carolina was an average team from the most overrated conference, which makes this matchup of 7-5 teams not as close as it looks on paper. Factor in the way each team finished the season, and this should be an easy win for the Tigers.

December 27th

Motor City - Western Michigan vs. Purdue - Broncos by 8

Don't underestimate Western Michigan, led by Jordan White, the top receiver in the nation, just because they play in the MAC. Purdue closed the season well, but they did it against some of the weaker opponents on the schedule, and since the Broncos' fans have a short drive across the state to Detroit, they should have plenty of support.

Queen City - Louisville vs. North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 1

Louisville started the season 2-4, then rallied to finish tied for the Big East title, while North Carolina State suffered greatly from the loss of Russell Wilson, but finished the season strong, coming back from a 27-point deficit in the final 18 minutes against Maryland with a 42-0 run to make themselves bowl eligible. Neither team has been that impressive this year, but NC State is happier to be here, and I expect them to win.

December 28th

Holiday - California vs. (24) Texas - Golden Bears by 1

Both Cal and Texas played in extremely difficult conferences this season, with both losing multiple games to top 10 teams and not really beating anybody worth talking about. They both have a chance to get a signature win at the end of the month, but Cal has been more consistent throughout the season.

Military - Toledo vs. Air Force - Rockets by 9

Toledo has a very balanced offense, averaging over 200 yards each in passing and rushing per game, while the Air Force (ironically) relies almost entirely on their ground game, which ranked second in the nation this season. Both offenses are very high-powered, so this game should feature a lot of scoring, which Toledo's balance giving them the win.

December 29th

Tangerine - Florida State vs. Notre Dame - Seminoles by 4

Both teams entered the season with expectations of playing for a national title, but early losses to unranked opponents sent both teams' seasons spiraling out of control long before anyone expected. It turned out that Clemson, who took out FSU, was a pretty good team, while South Florida, which beat the Irish, turned out to be overrated. Logic says the Seminoles loss was less of an upset, and they should pull this one out.

Alamo - Washington vs. (12) Baylor - Bears by 15

Baylor comes into the bowl game hot, riding their Heisman-winning quarterback, Robert Griffin III, and playing near home in San Antonio, while Washington couldn't stand up when they played stiff competition. Look for a blowout by the Bears, who should score a ton of points on the overmatched Huskies.

Look for my predictions for the remainder of this season's bowl games in the next couple days, and enjoy the only postseason that doesn't allow teams to advance to a championship game.

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