The college football season is drawing to a close, with the regular season ending on Saturday and bowl berths being awarded starting next week. LSU and Alabama appear to have locked up their spots in the championship game, but a win by Georgia in the SEC title game could throw a major monkey wrench into the SEC's plans. Elsewhere, several other conferences are still up for grabs, with the Big 12 playing an unofficial championship game this week as well. Here are my rankings with one week left in the regular season. Gaps between groups of teams represent different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP) (BCS)
1. (1) LSU (12-0) -34.25 (1) (1)
2. (4) Alabama (11-1) -31.43 (2) (2)
3. (2) Oklahoma State (10-1) -31.28 (3) (3)
4. (3) Oregon (10-2) -27.70 (8) (9)
5. (5) Oklahoma (9-2) -27.55 (13) (10)
6. (7) Wisconsin (10-2) -26.55 (15) (15)
7. (6) Stanford (11-1) -24.40 (4) (4)
8. (9) Houston (12-0) -24.27 (7) (6)
9. (8) Boise State (10-1) -21.66 (9) (7)
10. (13) USC (10-2) -20.39 (9) (NR)
11. (11) Texas A&M (6-6) -18.88 (NR) (NR)
12. (10) Michigan (10-2) -18.41 (17) (16)
13. (12) Arkansas (10-2) -17.65 (6) (8)
14. (14) Michigan State (10-2) -16.50 (11) (13)
15. (15) Kansas State (9-2) -16.27 (16) (11)
16. (20) Texas (7-4) -15.45 (27) (22)
17. (NR) Baylor (8-3) -14.44 (19) (17)
18. (22) Georgia (10-2) -13.85 (12) (14)
19. (18) Notre Dame (8-4) -13.55 (26) (NR)
20. (19) TCU (9-2) -13.24 (18) (18)
21. (NR) South Carolina (10-2) -13.08 (14) (12)
22. (21) California (7-5) -12.81 (NR) (NR)
23. (25) Florida State (8-4) -12.14 (25) (NR)
24. (17) Missouri (7-5) -12.12 (31) (25)
25. (NR) Virginia Tech (11-1) -10.93 (5) (5)
Dropped Out
(23) Arizona State (6-6) -9.72 (NR) (NR)
(24) Tulsa (8-4) -8.54 (34) (NR)
(16) Utah (7-5) -7.92 (NR) (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 12 - 7
SEC - 5
Pac 12 - 4
Big 10 - 3
MWC - 2
ACC - 2
CUSA - 1
Ind - 1
Virginia Tech finally made it into my top 25 just before the end of the season despite the fact that they are in the top 5 of the current BCS rankings. Why the big disparity? Virginia Tech is one of only two teams in the top 10 that has not beaten a currently-ranked team this season. Unlike the other (Houston), Virginia Tech has lost to one of those unranked teams, and their average margin of victory is less than 15 per game, while Houston wins by more than 30 points per game, with a strength of schedule that isn't much different.
For the first time all season, my top three match the national top 3, and while LSU and Alabama seem to have the inside edge for the championship game, don't rule out the Cowboys quite yet. If LSU loses to Georgia, giving the Bulldogs an automatic BCS berth, either LSU or Alabama would be eliminated from the BCS altogether, because only two teams from a conference can gain a berth in the five big games. In that case, Oklahoma State, Stanford, and even Virginia Tech would have a chance at taking on whichever SEC team is ranked higher in the final poll. If the Cowboys, Hokies, and Tigers all lose, the Cardinal would most likely take that spot, although Houston could sneak in if they can impress the voters enough with a win over Southern Miss, but that is a very unlikely possibility.
Even with just one week left, there is very little we know about who will play in BCS games. There will be only one Big East team, and there will be two teams from the SEC, but no team has locked up their berth yet. The winner of each championship game gets an automatic berth, which are likely to be LSU, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Oregon, and Wisconsin. It's looking pretty likely that only one Big Ten school will represent the conference, although it is possible that Michigan could sneak into the top 14 and become eligible for a berth. If Houston wins their conference, they are guaranteed an at-large berth, and if Stanford remains in the top 4, another is guaranteed to them. If Oklahoma beats OK State, the Cowboys would likely steal the final at-large berth, but a Sooner loss would eliminate them from contention. In that case, Kansas State would be next in line, as long as they don't fall to Iowa State. If they aren't available, the BCS bowls will be left with no choice but to take the Boise State Broncos, although they seem to be avoiding the #7 team because they have a loss, which happens to be against a ranked opponent. Luckily, there's still a lot of football to play this week before all is said and done.
Prediction Results
Ranked Teams: 17-4 (.810) 233-91 overall (.719)
Unranked Teams: 24-9 (.727) 120-55 overall (.686)
Upsets: 3-4 (.429) 43-65 overall (.398)
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