Four of the top 7 teams lost this weekend, and a couple of other top 10 teams struggled before hanging on for the victory, leaving the title race as wide open as it has been in years. There are only two undefeated teams left, and only one from an AQ conference, but they (LSU) still have a difficult road ahead, even with only two weeks of football remaining. Here are this week's updated top 25 teams, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. (LW) Team (Record) Rating (AP) (BCS)
1. (4) LSU (11-0) -29.82 (1) (1)
2. (2) Oklahoma State (10-1) -28.14 (5) (4)
3. (3) Oregon (9-2) -27.79 (9) (10)
4. (5) Alabama (10-1) -27.76 (2) (2)
5. (1) Oklahoma (8-2) -26.29 (12) (9)
6. (6) Stanford (10-1) -23.39 (4) (6)
7. (7) Wisconsin (9-2) -23.18 (15) (16)
8. (9) Boise State (9-1) -20.07 (7) (7)
9. (8) Houston (11-0) -19.85 (8) (8)
10. (17) Michigan (9-2) -18.60 (17) (15)
11. (10) Texas A&M (6-5) -17.95 (NR) (NR)
12. (15) Arkansas (10-1) -16.35 (3) (3)
13. (19) USC (9-2) -15.34 (10) (NR)
14. (23) Michigan State (9-2) -14.55 (11) (14)
15. (12) Kansas State (9-2) -14.13 (16) (11)
16. (21) Utah (7-4) -12.18 (NR) (NR)
17. (11) Missouri (6-5) -11.63 (NR) (NR)
18. (18) Notre Dame (8-3) -11.38 (22) (22)
19. (22) TCU (9-2) -10.93 (19) (20)
20. (13) Texas (6-4) -10.90 (NR) (25)
21. (NR) California (6-5) -10.54 (NR) (NR)
22. (14) Georgia (9-2) -10.43 (13) (13)
23. (20) Arizona State (6-5) -10.12 (NR) (NR)
24. (25) Tulsa (8-3) -9.82 (27) (NR)
25. (16) Florida State (7-4) -9.63 (NR) (NR)
Dropped Out
(24) Miami (6-5) -7.98 (NR) (NR)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 12: 6
Pac 12: 6
SEC: 4
Big 10: 3
MWC: 2
CUSA: 2
Ind: 1
ACC: 1
Of the 8 teams with one loss or fewer remaining, the one most likely to pick up another loss and lose their chance at the title is Arkansas, who has to face LSU on the road this weekend, with only a 14% chance of pulling off the upset. If, by chance, they do happen to win the game, they will most likely take over the #1 spot in the BCS, although they will almost definitely not play in the SEC Championship Game. A victory over LSU, combined with an Alabama win, which is quite likely, would create a 3-way tie in the SEC West, with LSU being eliminated first because they will probably be the lowest-ranked of the three, which would send Alabama to face Georgia for the conference title while Arkansas sits at home waiting to see who they'll face in the BCS title game, where they would almost definitely end up without even playing for their conference title. It could happen, but the odds aren't very good.
The next-most likely loser among the top 8 is Virginia State, who is the second-most overrated team in the country. They face in-state rival Virginia on the road this weekend, with the winner heading to the ACC title game to face Clemson. The odds of Tech surviving that game are 54%, and if that happens I would give them a 58% of beating Clemson. The overall odds that the Hokies lose again are 69%, which means their title dreams are more likely just wishes.
Houston's odds of losing are the third-highest, due to the fact that the two toughest teams on their schedule are still to come if they wish to remain undefeated. Their toughest test comes in Tulsa this week, where they have a 40% chance of losing in the game that will decide who goes to the Conference USA title game against Southern Miss. They would probably beat the Golden Eagles, but only if they can first take care of the Golden Hurricane. If they survive and only Boise and LSU remain with fewer than two losses, I would endorse the Cougars for a spot in the title game, but not otherwise.
Oklahoma State, who was undefeated just four days ago, could end the season with two losses, since they still have to welcome their toughest opponent and in-state rival Oklahoma to town in two weeks. Home field advantage will make the Cowboys favorites to win this game, but as of today I would only make the 7-point favorites, which is within the one-possession buffer zone, meaning the game could easily go either way.
LSU could also find themselves with a loss before the regular season ends, with two somewhat tough games remaining, if they can beat Arkansas. Winning that game would give them a berth in the SEC Championship, where they would face Georgia, in what would be a virtual home game for the Bulldogs in Atlanta. Neither game is a likely loss for the Tigers, but both teams have a chance of pulling off the upset, meaning LSU is still not assured of playing for the championship.
Stanford has one game remaining, with Notre Dame coming to town on Saturday, and while the Irish could pull off an upset, the Cardinal are still going to be big favorites at home, and because they lost to Oregon, they will probably not play in the Pac 12 title game, because the Ducks are unlikely to lose to the Oregon State Beavers in their final game. That loss could end up going in Stanford's favor, because it gives them one less chance at a loss this season, and many of the teams ahead of them could be in danger of falling.
It's not very likely that Alabama will lose again this year, but because their game against Auburn is a big rivalry game, you can't rule out the possibility of an upset completely. If they win that game and Arkansas upsets LSU, Alabama would be the most likely team to play in the SEC title game, where they would have to play Georgia in Atlanta, which would also be a slightly dangerous matchup, but not very likely to happen.
Among the top 8, the least likely loser is Boise State, who has two home games remaining, one against Wyoming, who is an average Mountain West team, and the other against New Mexico, who would lose to most FCS schools. The odds of losing either game are so slim that I will guarantee two victories to end the season, which means that the loss to TCU did not completely knock them from the BCS title conversation. One interesting scenario would have Boise State and Arkansas playing for the national championship without either having won their conference title. This would only require Arkansas to run away from LSU, Alabama to lose the SEC title to Georgia, OK State losing to Oklahoma, Virginia Tech losing as expected, and Stanford choking against Notre Dame. It's not too likely, but after last weekend, who knows where this season will end up.
Prediction Results
Ranked Teams: 19-10 (.655) 216-87 overall (.713)
Unranked Teams: 22-9 (.710) 96-46 overall (.676)
Upsets: 3-5 (.375) 39-60 overall (.394)
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