Thursday, March 31, 2016

Basketball Predictions - 31 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Brooklyn at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 14
Orlando at Indiana - Pacers by 6
Chicago at Houston - Rockets by 4
Denver at New Orleans - Pelicans by 2
LA Clippers at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 5
Boston at Portland - Trail Blazers by 1

NIT

(4) George Washington vs. (1) Valparaiso - Crusaders by 3

Prediction Results

NBA: 7-2 (.778) 764-357 overall (.682)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 80-91 overall (.468)
CBI: 1-0 (1.000) 13-3 overall (.813)

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Basketball Predictions - 30 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Atlanta at Toronto - Raptors by 2
Phoenix at Milwaukee - Bucks by 6
Denver at Memphis - Grizzlies by 3
LA Clippers at Minnesota - Clippers by 5
New York at Dallas - Mavericks by 4
New Orleans at San Antonio - Spurs by 16
Golden State at Utah - Warriors by 6
Washington at Sacramento - Kings by 1
Miami at LA Lakers - Heat by 8

CBI

Morehead State at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 5

Prediction Results

NBA: 3-3 (.500) 757-355 overall (.681)
NIT: 0-2 (.000) 25-5 overall (.833)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 2-1 overall (.667)
CIT: 1-0 (1.000) 15-8 overall (.652)

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Basketball Predictions - 29 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Chicago at Indiana - Pacers by 6
Brooklyn at Orlando - Magic by 6
Charlotte at Philadelphia - Hornets by 10
Oklahoma City at Detroit - Thunder by 5
Houston at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 8
Washington at Golden State - Warriors by 13

NIT

(2) BYU vs. (1) Valparaiso - Cougars by 1
(4) George Washington vs. (2) San Diego State - Aztecs by 1

CIT

UC Irvine at Columbia - Lions by 2

Prediction Results

NBA: 9-1 (.900) 754-352 overall (.682)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 79-91 overall (.465)
CBI: 1-0 (1.000) 12-3 overall (.800)

Monday, March 28, 2016

Basketball Predictions - 28 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Brooklyn at Miami - Heat by 10
Oklahoma City at Toronto - Thunder by 1
Phoenix at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 6
Atlanta at Chicago - Hawks by 4
San Antonio at Memphis - Spurs by 10
New York at New Orleans - Pelicans by 2
Dallas at Denver - Nuggets by 1
LA Lakers at Utah - Jazz by 12
Sacramento at Portland - Trail Blazers by 5
Boston at LA Clippers - Clippers by 3

CBI

Nevada at Morehead State - Eagles by 6

Prediction Results

NBA: 5-0 (1.000) 745-351 overall (.680)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 78-91 overall (.462)
NCAA: 1-1 (.500) 46-18 overall (.719)
CIT: 1-1 (.500) 14-8 overall (.636)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 0-2 overall (.000)

Saturday, March 26, 2016

Basketball Predictions - 27 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Denver at LA Clippers - Clippers by 8
Houston at Indiana - Pacers by 4
Dallas at Sacramento - Kings by 1
Philadelphia at Golden State - Warriors by 23
Washington at LA Lakers - Wizards by 5

NCAA

(10) Syracuse vs. (1) Virginia - Cavaliers by 8
(6) Notre Dame vs. (1) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 9

CIT

NJIT at Columbia - Lions by 11
UC Irvine at Coastal Carolina - Chanticleers by 2

Prediction Results

NBA: 8-2 (.800) 740-351 overall (.678)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 77-91 overall (.458)
NCAA: 1-1 (.500) 45-17 overall (.726)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 8-6 overall (.571)

NBA Rankings - 26 Mar

The hottest team in the league over the past two weeks has been Oklahoma City. The Thunder lost at San Antonio 2 weeks ago today, just like everybody else this season, but they have won 6 in a row since, including road wins at Boston at Indiana and home blowouts of Portland at Utah. The only non-playoff team they have faced in that time was Philadelphia, who they dispatched without any trouble, so a 6-1 record against mostly playoff-level competition is a great sign with they playoffs just weeks away. Here are my full current rankings:





Rec
Proj

TW
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
PO Seed
1
1
San Antonio
-10.78
61
11
68
14
W2
2
2
Golden State
-10.14
65
7
73
9
W1
3
3
Oklahoma City
-6.525
50
22
56
26
W3
4
4
Cleveland
-5.051
51
21
58
24
E1
5
8
Atlanta
-3.559
43
30
48
34
E3
6
6
Toronto
-3.497
48
23
55
27
E2
7
5
LA Clippers
-3.101
44
27
52
30
W4
8
7
Boston
-2.769
42
30
48
34
E4
9
9
Charlotte
-1.586
41
31
47
35
E5
10
10
Indiana
-1.285
38
33
45
37
E7
11
11
Miami
-1.158
42
30
46
36
E6
12
14
Utah
-0.984
35
37
41
41
W7
13
13
Portland
-0.67
37
36
42
40
W6
14
12
Detroit
-0.139
39
34
43
39
E8
15
15
Houston
0.4047
36
37
41
41
W8
16
16
Dallas
0.7297
35
37
40
42

17
19
Washington
1.1828
35
37
40
42

18
18
Chicago
1.9658
36
35
41
41

19
17
Memphis
2.2099
41
32
44
38
W5
20
20
Denver
2.3917
31
42
34
48

21
22
Sacramento
2.8408
28
44
32
50

22
23
New York
2.9699
30
43
34
48

23
24
New Orleans
3.1001
26
45
31
51

24
21
Orlando
3.1884
29
43
33
49

25
25
Milwaukee
3.2785
30
43
34
48

26
26
Minnesota
3.9473
24
48
28
54

27
27
Brooklyn
6.564
20
51
23
59

28
28
Phoenix
7.7695
20
52
23
59

29
29
LA Lakers
8.3708
15
57
17
65

30
30
Philadelphia
10.695
9
63
11
71


Playoff Picks

First Round

(1) Cavaliers over (8) Pistons
(2) Raptors over (7) Pacers
(3) Hawks over (6) Heat
(5) Hornets over (4) Celtics
(1) Warriors over (8) Rockets
(2) Spurs over (7) Jazz
(3) Thunder over (6) Trail Blazers
(4) Clippers over (5) Grizzlies

Second Round

(1) Cavaliers over (5) Hornets
(3) Hawks over (2) Raptors
(1) Warriors over (4) Clippers
(2) Spurs over (3) Thunder

Conference Finals

(3) Hawks over (1) Cavaliers
(2) Spurs over (1) Warriors

NBA Finals

(2) Spurs over (3) Hawks

Friday, March 25, 2016

Basketball Predictions - 26 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Indiana at Brooklyn - Pacers by 6
Chicago at Orlando - Magic by 1
Toronto at New Orleans - Raptors by 4
Atlanta at Detroit - Hawks by 1
Cleveland at New York - Cavaliers by 6
Utah at Minnesota - Jazz by 3
San Antonio at Oklahoma City - Spurs by 2
Charlotte at Milwaukee - Hornets by 3
Boston at Phoenix - Celtics by 8
Philadelphia at Portland - Trail Blazers by 14

NCAA

(2) Oklahoma vs. (1) Oregon - Sooners by 3
(2) Villanova vs. (1) Kansas - Jayhawks by 1

Prediction Results

NBA: 7-2 (.778) 732-349 overall (.677)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 75-91 overall (.452)
NCAA: 3-1 (.750) 44-16 overall (.733)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 7-6 overall (.538)

Basketball Predictions - 25 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Minnesota at Washington - Wizards by 5
Charlotte at Detroit - Pistons by 1
Orlando at Miami - Heat by 6
Milwaukee at Atlanta - Hawks by 9
Toronto at Houston - Raptors by 2
Memphis at San Antonio - Spurs by 16
Phoenix at Sacramento - Kings by 7
Dallas at Golden State - Warriors by 13
Denver at LA Lakers - Nuggets by 3

NCAA

(4) Iowa State vs. (1) Virginia - Cavaliers by 5
(7) Wisconsin vs. (6) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 1
(11) Gonzaga vs. (10) Syracuse - Bulldogs by 3
(5) Indiana vs. (1) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 2

Prediction Results

NBA: 4-1 (.800) 725-347 overall (.676)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 74-91 overall (.449)
NCAA: 3-1 (.750) 41-15 overall (.732)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 7-5 overall (.583)
CIT: 0-1 (.000) 13-7 overall (.650)

Thursday, March 24, 2016

Updated NCAA Tournament Odds

After one weekend, the field has been trimmed from 68 teams to 16, so it's time to review what has happened so far and see how the remaining teams' odds have changed in the past week.

Best Teams Left Out

The top 5 teams on my list of teams that should have made the tournament were among the final 8 teams alive in this season's NIT, so it looks like they were pretty accurate.

Least Deserving At Large Teams

Of the 6 teams on this list, 5 lost their first game, 3 in upsets, and the other fell in their second game, so none of the undeserving teams is still alive in the tourney.

Most Underseeded Teams

5 of the teams on this list pulled off at least one upset, with Gonzaga taking two and Stephen F Austin coming extremely close to a second. There were also several that lost very close games, including Cincinnati's buzzer-beater that was too late and Purdue's double OT loss.

Most Overseeded Teams

Of the 10 teams on this list, only two remain, and both were very lucky to avoid upsets, Oregon and Notre Dame. 6 of the teams lost in the first round, 5 in upsets, and 2 more lost in the second round to lower seeds, meaning 7 of the 10 have been upset so far, and the other 2 could be upset before tomorrow.

Number of First Round Upsets

My prediction was 9.2, and there ended up being 13, so it was actually above the projected range this year, as opposed to last year, when there were only 5.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

Of the 10 I showed as most likely to happen, 7 actually happened, and another was milliseconds from happening, and the other two required huge comebacks to avoid happening, so overall this was very accurate.

Most Likely #15 to Pull an Upset

This is where I was completely wrong. I said that there was a very good chance at seeing a 15-seed win, but I also said that Michigan State would not be the 2-seed to go down. Ouch.

Most Likely Cinderellas

The two lower seeds that are still alive were both on my list, with Gonzaga at the very top and Syracuse at the bottom.

Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16

My projection was 2.4, so this was right on, with Syracuse and Gonzaga still dancing.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

I originally projected 1.0, but with all four still alive, the number has risen to 1.5.

Odds of #1 Seed Winning the Tournament

The odds of this happening have risen from 33.4% to 46.9% after the opening weekend.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

10 of the actual teams were in my top 16, with 3 more among the next five below them, with Syracuse, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame as the biggest surprises.

Most Likely Elite Eight Teams

(1) Kansas - 72.0%
(1) Virginia - 64.9%
(2) Villanova - 60.7%
(11) Gonzaga - 59.6%
(1) North Carolina - 56.8%
(4) Duke - 55.6%
(2) Oklahoma - 52.8%
(6) Notre Dame - 51.0%

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Virginia - 43.5% (+18.9)
(1) North Carolina - 42.1% (+14.2)
(1) Kansas - 41.7% (+4.2)
(2) Villanova - 31.9% (+12.4)
(2) Oklahoma - 29.3% (+5.4)
(5) Indiana - 29.3% (+18.5)
(4) Duke - 26.9% (+12.0)
(11) Gonzaga - 25.0% (+17.6)
(3) Texas A&M - 24.9% (+7.7)
(1) Oregon - 18.9% (+5.7)
(4) Iowa State - 18.4% (+11.1)

Most Likely Champions

(1) Kansas - 16.7% (+1.4)
(1) Virginia - 14.1% (+6.4)
(1) North Carolina - 13.3% (+4.7)
(2) Villanova - 11.4% (+5.1)
(5) Indiana - 7.2% (+4.1)
(2) Oklahoma - 6.4% (+0.9)
(4) Duke - 5.1% (+2.1)
(3) Texas A&M - 4.8% (+1.5)
(11) Gonzaga - 4.8% (+3.4)
(3) Miami - 4.0% (+1.4)

Overall Bracket

I got 23 out of 32 right in the first round, including 7 of the 10 upsets I selected, and I correctly picked 10 of the Sweet 16. I did lose both West Virginia, my champion, and Michigan State, a Final Four team, in the first round, so my overall bracket has been damaged. Here is my updated prediction from this point forward:

Elite Eight

(1) Kansas
(2) Villanova

(4) Duke
(3) Texas A&M

(1) North Carolina
(7) Wisconsin

(1) Virginia
(11) Gonzaga

Final Four

(2) Villanova
(4) Duke
(1) North Carolina
(1) Virginia

3 ACC teams reach the final weekend.

Championship

(2) Villanova
(1) Virginia

Champs

(2) Villanova


Basketball Predictions - 24 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

New Orleans at Indiana - Pacers by 7
Cleveland at Brooklyn - Cavaliers by 10
Chicago at New York - Knicks by 1
Utah at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7
Portland at LA Clippers - Clippers by 5

NCAA

(3) Miami vs. (2) Villanova - Wildcats by 4
(3) Texas A&M vs. (2) Oklahoma - Sooners by 1
(5) Maryland vs. (1) Kansas - Jayhawks by 8
(4) Duke vs. (1) Oregon - Blue Devils by 2

CIT

UT Arlington at NJIT - Mavericks by 6

Prediction Results

NBA: 10-2 (.833) 721-346 overall (.676)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 73-91 overall (.445)
NIT: 2-0 (1.000) 25-3 overall (.893)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 2-0 overall (1.000)
CBI: 1-1 (.500) 11-3 overall (.786)
CIT: 2-1 (.667) 13-6 overall (.684)

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Basketball Predictions - 23 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Atlanta at Washington - Hawks by 2
Milwaukee at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 11
Toronto at Boston - Celtics by 1
Orlando at Detroit - Pistons by 5
New York at Chicago - Bulls by 4
Utah at Houston - Rockets by 1
Sacramento at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 1
Miami at San Antonio - Spurs by 12
Philadelphia at Denver - Nuggets by 11
LA Lakers at Phoenix - Suns by 3
Dallas at Portland - Trail Blazers by 4
LA Clippers at Golden State - Warriors by 9

NIT

(2) Florida at (4) George Washington - Colonials by 1
(4) Georgia Tech at (2) San Diego State - Aztecs by 3

CBI

Morehead State at Ohio - Bobcats by 4
Vermont at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 5

CIT

Grand Canyon at Coastal Carolina - Chanticleers by 7
Ball State at Columbia - Lions by 8
UC Irvine at Louisiana Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns by 5

Prediction Results

NBA: 3-1 (.750) 711-344 overall (.674)
NIT: 2-0 (1.000) 23-3 overall (.885)

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Basketball Predictions - 22 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Charlotte at Brooklyn - Hornets by 6
Miami at New Orleans - Heat by 2
Houston at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 9
Memphis at LA Lakers - Grizzlies by 4

NIT

(2) Saint Mary's at (1) Valparaiso - Crusaders by 5
(4) Creighton at (2) BYU - Cougars by 6

Prediction Results

NBA: 7-2 (.778) 708-343 overall (.674)
NIT: 1-2 (.333) 21-3 overall (.875)
CBI: 4-0 (1.000) 10-2 overall (.833)
CIT: 1-0 (1.000) 11-5 overall (.688)

Sunday, March 20, 2016

Basketball Predictions - 21 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

San Antonio at Charlotte - Spurs by 7
Denver at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 9
Philadelphia at Indiana - Pacers by 14
Orlando at Boston - Celtics by 8
Milwaukee at Detroit - Pistons by 6
Washington at Atlanta - Hawks by 7
Sacramento at Chicago - Bulls by 4
Golden State at Minnesota - Warriors by 12
Memphis at Phoenix - Grizzlies by 3

NIT

(4) George Washington at (1) Monmouth - Hawks by 5
(4) Georgia Tech at (1) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 5
(3) Washington at (2) San Diego State - Aztecs by 5

CBI

Duquesne at Morehead State - Eagles by 9
UNC Greensboro at Ohio - Bobcats by 11
Eastern Washington at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 8
Vermont at Seattle - Catamounts by 4

CIT

Boston U at NJIT - Highlanders by 6

Prediction Results

NBA: 4-2 (.667) 701-341 overall (.673)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 72-91 overall (.442)
NCAA: 7-1 (.875) 38-14 overall (.731)
NIT: 2-0 (1.000) 20-1 overall (.952)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000)
CIT: 1-0 (1.000) 10-5 overall (.667)

Saturday, March 19, 2016

Basketball Predictions - 20 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Portland at Dallas - Mavericks by 1
Orlando at Toronto - Raptors by 9
Boston at Philadelphia - Celtics by 11
LA Clippers at New Orleans - Clippers by 4
Utah at Milwaukee - Jazz by 2
Sacramento at New York - Knicks by 2

NCAA

(7) Iowa vs. (2) Villanova - Wildcats by 5
(14) Stephen F Austin vs. (6) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 1
(10) VCU vs. (2) Oklahoma - Sooners by 6
(15) Middle Tennessee vs. (10) Syracuse - Orange by 9
(13) Hawaii vs. (5) Maryland - Terrapins by 6
(11) Northern Iowa vs. (3) Texas A&M - Aggies by 10
(7) Wisconsin vs. (2) Xavier - Musketeers by 5
(8) Saint Joseph's vs. (1) Oregon - Ducks by 5

NIT

(2) Florida at (3) Ohio State - Gators by 1
(3) Georgia at (2) Saint Mary's - Gaels by 9

CIT

Tennessee Martin at Ball State - Cardinals by 8

Prediction Results

NBA: 5-4 (.556) 697-339 overall (.673)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 71-91 overall (.438)
NCAA: 7-1 (.875) 31-13 overall (.705)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 7-4 overall (.636)
NIT: 1-0 (1.000) 18-1 overall (.947)
CIT: 1-1 (.500) 9-5 overall (.643)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000)

Basketball Predictions - 19 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Denver at Charlotte - Hornets by 6
Brooklyn at Detroit - Pistons by 9
Oklahoma City at Indiana - Thunder by 3
New York at Washington - Wizards by 4
Houston at Atlanta - Hawks by 6
Cleveland at Miami - Cavaliers by 2
Utah at Chicago - Jazz by 1
LA Clippers at Memphis - Clippers by 4
Golden State at San Antonio - Spurs by 3

NCAA

(11) Wichita State vs. (3) Miami - Hurricanes by 1
(12) Yale vs. (4) Duke - Blue Devils by 6
(5) Indiana vs. (4) Kentucky - Wildcats by 2
(12) Arkansas Little Rock vs. (4) Iowa State - Cyclones by 5
(9) Butler vs. (1) Virginia - Cavaliers by 6
(9) Connecticut vs. (1) Kansas - Jayhawks by 8
(11) Gonzaga vs. (3) Utah - Bulldogs by 1
(9) Providence vs. (1) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 10

NIT

(8) Wagner at (4) Creighton - Bluejays by 17

CIT

Louisiana Lafayette at Furman - Paladins by 2
New Hampshire at Coastal Carolina - Chanticleers by 11

Prediction Results

NBA: 7-1 (.875) 692-335 overall (.674)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 71-90 overall (.441)
NCAA: 10-6 (.625) 24-12 overall (.667)
Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 5-4 overall (.556)
NIT: 1-0 (1.000) 17-1 overall (.944)

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Basketball Predictions - 18 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Cleveland at Orlando - Cavaliers by 6
Oklahoma City at Philadelphia - Thunder by 15
Sacramento at Detroit - Pistons by 5
Boston at Toronto - Raptors by 3
Minnesota at Houston - Rockets by 6
Portland at New Orleans - Trail Blazers by 1
Golden State at Dallas - Warriors by 9
Phoenix at LA Lakers - Lakers by 2

NCAA

(10) Syracuse vs. (7) Dayton - Orange by 2
(15) UNC Asheville vs. (2) Villanova - Wildcats by 14
(10) VCU vs. (7) Oregon State - Rams by 4
(13) Hawaii vs. (4) California - Golden Bears by 7
(15) Middle Tennessee vs. (2) Michigan State - Spartans by 20
(10) Temple vs. (7) Iowa - Hawkeyes by 9
(15) CSU Bakersfield vs. (2) Oklahoma - Sooners by 14
(12) South Dakota State vs. (5) Maryland - Terrapins by 7
(10) Pittsburgh vs. (7) Wisconsin - Panthers by 2
(14) Stephen F Austin vs. (3) West Virginia - Mountaineers by 10
(14) Green Bay vs. (3) Texas A&M - Aggies by 13
(16) Holy Cross vs. (1) Oregon - Ducks by 21
(15) Weber State vs. (2) Xavier - Musketeers by 12
(11) Michigan vs. (6) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 1
(11) Northern Iowa vs. (6) Texas - Longhorns by 6
(9) Cincinnati vs. (8) Saint Joseph's - Bearcats by 3

NIT

(3) Virginia Tech at (2) BYU - Cougars by 9

Prediction Results

NBA: 6-2 (.750) 685-334 overall (.672)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 70-89 overall (.440)
NCAA: 12-4 (.750) 14-6 overall (.700)
Upsets: 3-1 (.750) 3-2 overall (.600)
NIT: 1-0 (1.000) 16-1 overall (.941)
CIT: 1-0 (1.000) 8-4 overall (.667)

Basketball Predictions - 17 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Toronto at Indiana - Pacers by 1
Washington at Philadelphia - Wizards by 7
Charlotte at Miami - Heat by 1
Denver at Atlanta - Hawks by 8
Brooklyn at Chicago - Bulls by 7
Memphis at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
Portland at San Antonio - Spurs by 13
Phoenix at Utah - Jazz by 10

NCAA

(13) UNC Wilmington vs. (4) Duke - Blue Devils by 10
(9) Butler vs. (8) Texas Tech - Bulldogs by 3
(9) Connecticut vs. (8) Colorado - Huskies by 4
(13) Iona vs. (4) Iowa State - Cyclones by 9
(12) Yale vs. (5) Baylor - Bears by 4
(16) Hampton vs. (1) Virginia - Cavaliers by 26
(16) Austin Peay vs. (1) Kansas - Jayhawks by 24
(12) Arkansas Little Rock vs. (5) Purdue - Boilermakers by 9
(14) Buffalo vs. (3) Miami - Hurricanes by 14
(12) Chattanooga vs. (5) Indiana - Hoosiers by 11
(16) Florida Gulf Coast vs. (1) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 20
(14) Fresno State vs. (3) Utah - Utes by 11
(11) Wichita State vs. (6) Arizona - Wildcats by 2
(13) Stony Brook vs. (4) Kentucky - Wildcats by 10
(9) Providence vs. (8) USC - Trojans by 1
(11) Gonzaga vs. (6) Seton Hall - Bulldogs by 2

NIT

(4) Florida State at (1) Valparaiso - Crusaders by 6

CIT

Jackson State at Grand Canyon - Antelopes by 11

Prediction Results

NBA: 7-2 (.778) 679-332 overall (.672)
Upsets: 3-0 (1.000) 69-88 overall (.440)
NCAA: 1-1 (.500) 2-2 overall (.500)
NIT: 6-1 (.857) 15-1 overall (.938)
CBI: 6-1 (.857) 6-2 overall (.750)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000)
CIT: 5-3 (.625) 7-4 overall (.636)

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Basketball Predictions - 16 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Oklahoma City at Boston - Thunder by 1
Orlando at Charlotte - Hornets by 7
Dallas at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 9
Chicago at Washington - Wizards by 2
Atlanta at Detroit - Hawks by 1
Minnesota at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5
LA Clippers at Houston - Clippers by 1
New Orleans at Sacramento - Kings by 3
New York at Golden State - Warriors by 15

NCAA

(16) Holy Cross vs. (16) Southern - Jaguars by 4
(11) Tulsa vs. (11) Michigan - Wolverines by 3

NIT

(8) Wagner at (1) St. Bonaventure - Bonnies by 13
(6) Belmont at (3) Georgia - Bulldogs by 10
(8) Bucknell at (1) Monmouth - Hawks by 11
(6) Princeton at (3) Virginia Tech - Hokies by 4
(5) Hofstra at (4) George Washington - Colonials by 8
(5) Houston at (4) Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 5
(7) UAB at (2) BYU - Cougars by 12

CBI

Omaha at Duquesne - Dukes by 3
Albany at Ohio - Bobcats by 3
Houston Baptist at UNC Greensboro - Spartans by 8
Western Carolina at Vermont - Catamounts by 8
Pepperdine at Eastern Washington - Eagles by 2
Montana at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 6
Idaho at Seattle - Vandals by 1

CIT

Boston U at Fordham - Rams by 9
Tennessee Martin at Central Michigan - Chippewas by 7
New Hampshire at Fairfield - Stags by 8
Norfolk State at Columbia - Lions by 13
UT Arlington at Savannah State - Mavericks by 16
Army at NJIT - Highlanders by 6
UC Irvine at North Dakota - Anteaters by 2
Texas A&M-CC at Louisiana Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns by 10

Prediction Results

NBA: 6-0 (1.000) 672-330 overall (.671)
NCAA: 1-1 (.500)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000)
NIT: 9-0 (1.000)
CBI: 0-1 (.000)
CIT: 2-1 (.667)

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Basketball Predictions - 15 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Boston at Indiana - Pacers by 1
Denver at Orlando - Magic by 1
Philadelphia at Brooklyn - Nets by 6
Toronto at Milwaukee - Raptors by 4
LA Clippers at San Antonio - Spurs by 9
Sacramento at LA Lakers - Kings by 3

NCAA

(16) Florida Gulf Coast vs. (16) Fairleigh Dickinson - Eagles by 6
(11) Vanderbilt vs. (11) Wichita State - Commodores by 2

NIT

(5) Davidson at (4) Florida State - Seminoles by 12
(8) High Point at (1) South Carolina - Gamecocks by 12
(6) Akron at (3) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 5
(5) Alabama at (4) Creighton - Bluejays by 10
(6) Long Beach State at (3) Washington - Huskies by 11
(2) Florida at (7) North Florida - Gators by 7
(8) Texas Southern at (1) Valparaiso - Crusaders by 17
(7) IPFW at (2) San Diego State - Aztecs by 10
(7) New Mexico State at (2) Saint Mary's - Gaels by 13

CBI

Morehead State at Siena - Saints by 7

CIT

Mercer at Coastal Carolina - Chanticleers by 8
Louisiana Monroe at Furman - Paladins by 5
Ball State at Tennessee State - Tigers by 6

Prediction Results

NBA: 4-5 (.444) 666-330 overall (.669)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 66-88 overall (.429)

Monday, March 14, 2016

NCAA Tournament Odds 2016

The Tournament is finally here, and it is much more wide open than it has been in years, without a clear-cut favorite to win it all, unlike last year, when the odds of Kentucky, Wisconsin, or Duke winning it all was over 50% at this point. Every single game this season has been accounted for, and every potential matchup in the next 3 weeks has been analyzed, and I've broken it all down for you here to help you fill out a winning bracket.

Best Teams Left Out

Teams ordered by final ranking using my formula.

7. Louisville (ineligible)
14. SMU (ineligible)
34. Florida
36. Saint Mary's
37. BYU
40. Valparaiso
46. Creighton
47. Florida State

For the third year in a row, there were 6 teams snubbed according to my formula. Last year's NIT champ, Stanford, was among the snubs I listed, so these teams should have a good shot at the consolation prize this year.

Least Deserving At-Large Teams

Seed in parentheses.

53. Colorado (8)
54. Dayton (7)
60. Providence (9)
63. Tulsa (11)
66. Oregon State (7)
95. Temple (10)

Colorado at Dayton were close enough that I don't have a huge problem with them making it, and the next three are not bad, but could easily have been replaced with a better team from above. Temple is possibly the worst at-large team I have ever seen make the tourney, so don't plan on seeing them advance very far. Last year, 5 of the 6 teams on this list were out on the opening weekend of the tournament, three in the first game in which they could have been eliminated.

Most Underseeded Teams

These teams were seeded lower than they should have been, and that makes these teams good candidates to pull off early upsets.

1. Vanderbilt (11)
2. Gonzaga (11)
3. Stephen F Austin (14)
4. Wichita State (11)
5. Connecticut (9)
6. Purdue (5)
7. Michigan (11)
8. VCU (10)
9. Pittsburgh (10)
10. Cincinnati (9)

The teams on this list last year pulled off 7 total upsets, including 14-seed Georgia State's upset of Baylor in the first round and Michigan State's run to the Final Four from the 7-seed.

Most Overseeded Teams

These teams were seeded far too high, and are more likely to be the victims of early upsets

1. Oregon (1)
2. Oregon State (7)
3. Dayton (7)
4. California (4)
5. Notre Dame (6)
6. Colorado (8)
7. Temple (10)
8. Xavier (2)
9. Utah (3)
10. Texas (6)

You'll notice that there are 5 Pac 12 teams on this list. It is obvious that the committee thought a lot more of the Pac 12 than the actual data does. Of the 10 teams on this list last year, 5 were upset in the first two rounds, including #2 Kansas, #3 Baylor, #4 Maryland, and #4 Georgetown. The other 5 lost to higher seeds within the first two rounds, meaning all ten failed to reach the Sweet 16.

There are 3 first-round upsets of over vs. under-seeded teams, including Colorado vs. Connecticut, Oregon State vs. VCU, and Notre Dame vs. Michigan, along with a few possible in the second round, including Oregon vs. Cincinnati, Utah vs. Gonzaga, and Xavier vs. Pittsburgh. Upset alert!

Number of First-Round Upsets

9.2

Last year I predicted 8.6, and there were only 5, so it was a little below the expected range. This year it should be a little higher, somewhere between 8 and 11.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

(9) Connecticut over (8) Colorado - 62.6%
(10) VCU over (7) Oregon State - 60.7%
(9) Cincinnati over (8) Saint Joseph's - 59.4%
(9) Butler over (8) Texas Tech - 58.7%
(11) Gonzaga over (6) Seton Hall - 56.1%
(10) Pittsburgh over (7) Wisconsin - 55.0%
(10) Syracuse over (7) Dayton - 54.6%
(11) Vanderbilt/Wichita State over (6) Arizona - 45.9%
(9) Providence over (8) USC - 45.7%
(11) Michigan/Tulsa over (6) Notre Dame - 45.5%

3 of the 5 upsets that happened last year were on my list, with 14-seeds Georgia State and UAB as the surprises.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull an Upset

(15) Weber State over (2) Xavier - 16.8%
(15) UNC Asheville over (2) Villanova - 11.7%
(15) Cal State Bakersfield over (2) Oklahoma - 10.9%

There is a 40% chance that a #2 seed will lose its first game, with only Michigan State completely immune, although each of these upsets would still be a long shot.

Most Likely Cinderellas

These are the lower seeds most likely to reach the Sweet 16

(11) Gonzaga - 31.3%
(9) Cincinnati - 28.8%
(10) Pittsburgh - 26.3%
(11) Vanderbilt/Wichita State - 23.0%
(10) VCU - 22.2%
(9) Butler - 18.9%
(9) Connecticut - 17.1%
(12) Yale - 14.1%
(11) Michigan/Tulsa - 12.3%
(10) Syracuse - 12.0%

Last year's lone Cinderella, UCLA, was #5 on this list last year with a 16.4% change of reaching the Sweet 16. The odds are even higher this year that we'll see multiple teams get there from this list.

Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16

2.4

Last year I predicted 2.2, so having just UCLA meant it came in low, but the odds are a little higher this year of hitting 2 or 3.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.0

Last year's number was 1.7, and 3 ended up getting there, with only Michigan State getting there without a top seed. There will likely be at least one again this year, but the chances of seeing 3 again is pretty low.

Odds of #1 Seed Winning the Tournament

33.4%

That's not bad, but much lower than last season's 59.5%, which ended up being true, with Duke taking it all.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(2) Michigan State - 79.8%
(1) North Carolina - 77.6%
(1) Kansas - 76.9%
(1) Virginia - 71.3%
(2) Oklahoma - 64.0%
(2) Villanova - 60.5%
(3) West Virginia - 59.1%
(3) Texas A&M - 56.2%
(1) Oregon - 55.1%
(2) Xavier - 50.1%
(5) Purdue - 48.7%
(4) Duke - 47.5%
(4) Kentucky - 47.2%
(3) Miami - 46.1%
(3) Utah - 42.5%
(5) Indiana - 42.0%

(5) Maryland - 40.3%
(4) California - 38.3%
(4) Iowa State - 35.8%
(7) Iowa - 31.8%
(11) Gonzaga - 31.3%
(5) Baylor - 31.3%
(6) Texas - 30.6%

Last year 12 of the Sweet 16 were among the 16 most likely on my list, so don't pick too many of these teams to lose early, although we won't see all of them get through.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Kansas - 37.5%
(2) Michigan State - 34.9%
(1) North Carolina - 27.9%
(1) Virginia - 24.6%
(2) Oklahoma - 23.9%
(3) West Virginia - 23.1%
(2) Villanova - 19.5%
(3) Texas A&M - 17.2%
(4) Duke - 14.9%
(4) Kentucky - 13.9%
(1) Oregon - 13.2%
(5) Purdue - 12.5%
(5) Indiana - 10.8%
(2) Xavier - 10.3%
(3) Miami - 10.2%

Last season the top 3 on my list all made the Final Four. It's not possible for the top 4 on this list to all get there, since Michigan State and Virginia are in the same region, but there are several strong candidates to reach the final weekend.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Kansas - 15.3%
(2) Michigan State - 12.6%
(1) North Carolina - 8.6%
(1) Virginia - 7.7%
(3) West Virginia - 7.4%
(2) Villanova - 6.3%
(2) Oklahoma - 5.5%
(4) Kentucky - 3.6%
(3) Texas A&M - 3.3%
(5) Purdue - 3.2%

Last year, Kentucky came in with a 27.0% chance of winning the title, and eventual champion Duke at 11.5%. The eventual champion has been in the top 3 on my list in 3 of the past 4 seasons.

Overall Bracket

Upset picks are in italics.

First Round Winners

(1) Kansas
(9) Connecticut
(5) Maryland
(4) California
(11) Vanderbilt/Wichita State
(3) Miami
(7) Iowa
(2) Villanova

(1) Oregon
(9) Cincinnati
(5) Baylor
(4) Duke
(6) Texas
(3) Texas A&M
(10) VCU
(2) Oklahoma

(1) North Carolina
(9) Providence
(5) Indiana
(4) Kentucky
(11) Michigan/Tulsa
(3) West Virginia
(10) Pittsburgh
(2) Xavier

(1) Virginia
(9) Butler
(5) Purdue
(4) Iowa State
(11) Gonzaga
(3) Utah
(10) Syracuse
(2) Michigan State

That's 10 upsets if you're keeping track.

Sweet 16

(1) Kansas
(5) Maryland
(11) Vanderbilt/Wichita State
(2) Villanova

(9) Cincinnati
(4) Duke
(3) Texas A&M
(2) Oklahoma

(1) North Carolina
(5) Indiana
(3) West Virginia
(2) Xavier

(1) Virginia
(5) Purdue
(11) Gonzaga
(2) Michigan State

2 double-digit seeds and the first #1 to drop.

Elite Eight

(1) Kansas
(2) Villanova

(4) Duke
(3) Texas A&M

(1) North Carolina
(3) West Virginia

(5) Purdue
(2) Michigan State

2 teams from the ACC, Big 12, and Big 10, along with one each from the SEC and Big East, and none from the Pac 12

Final Four

(1) Kansas
(4) Duke
(3) West Virginia
(2) Michigan State

Championship

(1) Kansas
(3) West Virginia

Champion

(3) West Virginia

The Mountaineers beat the Jayhawks in a rematch of the Big 12 title game.

Sunday, March 13, 2016

Basketball Predictions - 14 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Dallas at Charlotte - Hornets by 6
Minnesota at Phoenix - Timberwolves by 1
Denver at Miami - Heat by 5
Chicago at Toronto - Raptors by 7
Detroit at Washington - Pistons by 1
Memphis at Houston - Rockets by 3
Portland at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7
Cleveland at Utah - Cavaliers by 3
New Orleans at Golden State - Warriors by 15

Prediction Results

NBA: 4-1 (.800) 662-325 overall (.671)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 65-87 overall (.428)
College Basketball: 4-1 (.800) 4347-1452 overall (.750)