Thursday, January 7, 2016

NFL Playoff Odds - 2016

Another regular season has ended, and twelve teams remain with dreams of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy this February. Some, like the Kansas City Chiefs, open the playoffs red-hot, while others, like the Green Bay Packers, kind of limped to the finish line. How far will each team go? I've broken down the odds of any matchup occurring and the odds of any team winning any potential matchup, and broken down the odds for each team to advance through each round and win the Super Bowl. Here is my full breakdown by round:

Odds of Winning Wild Card Round

1. Chiefs - 67.2%
2. Bengals - 60.4%
3. Seahawks - 58.7%
4. Packers - 58.5%
5. Redskins - 41.5%
6. Vikings - 41.3%
7. Steelers - 39.6%
8. Texans - 32.8%

Odds of Making Conference Championships

1. Cardinals - 75.7%
2. Panthers - 56.8%
3. Broncos - 52.2%
4. Patriots - 49.6%
5. Chiefs - 35.2%
6. Bengals - 33.0%
7. Seahawks - 31.3%
8. Steelers - 20.6%
9. Packers - 17.3%
10. Vikings - 12.1%
11. Texans - 9.5%
12. Redskins - 6.9%

Odds of Making Super Bowl

1. Cardinals - 43.0%
2. Panthers - 29.6%
3. Broncos - 26.7%
4. Patriots - 23.8%
5. Bengals - 19.7%
6. Chiefs - 17.3%
7. Seahawks - 15.2%
8. Steelers - 10.2%
9. Packers - 5.8%
10. Vikings - 5.5%
11. Texans - 2.5%
12. Redskins - 1.7%

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Cardinals - 26.4%
2. Panthers - 15.5%
3. Broncos - 10.5%
4. Bengals - 10.1%
5. Patriots - 9.6%
6. Seahawks - 9.4%
7. Chiefs - 8.4%
8. Steelers - 4.9%
9. Vikings - 2.6%
10. Packers - 2.5%
11. Texans - 0.6%
12. Redskins - 0.5%

My Picks

In the preseason, I picked 8 of the 12 playoff teams correctly, including 4 of the 8 division champs. I predicted that Minnesota and Kansas City would make the playoffs after missing out last year, which happened in both cases. I predicted a Seattle-New England rematch in the Super Bowl, with a change in the victor, and while that is still a great possibility, it is not the prediction I am making after the regular season.

Wild Card

(3) Bengals over (6) Steelers
(5) Chiefs over (4) Texans
(6) Seahawks over (3) Vikings
(5) Packers over (4) Redskins

Divisional Round

(5) Chiefs over (1) Broncos
(3) Bengals over (2) Patriots
(6) Seahawks over (1) Panthers
(2) Cardinals over (5) Packers

Conference Championships

(3) Bengals over (5) Chiefs
(2) Cardinals over (6) Seahawks

Super Bowl

(2) Cardinals over (3) Bengals

It will be a battle between 2 teams that have never won a Super Bowl, with the Cardinals coming out on top thanks to having their entire team healthy, something very few of this season's playoff teams can say.

1 comment:

  1. Nobody gives the Redskins credit....Rodgers may be able to carry his team but Cousins doesn't have to....the defense has been playing good enough while the offense has been lights out...

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