NBA Playoff Preview

The NBA Playoffs begin today, and while Golden State has been #1 for months, they are not the only team with a good shot at winning the championship. I have analyzed every team's odds of beating any other team in a 7-game series, and have come up with each team's odds of advancing through each round, and I've also made my picks for the winner and length of each series:

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Warriors - 96.1%
2. Hawks - 93.2%
3. Bulls - 78.6%
4. Cavaliers - 76.5%
5. Rockets - 73.9%
6. Raptors - 66.1%
7. Spurs - 56.7%
8. Trail Blazers - 53.0%
9. Grizzlies - 47.0%
10. Clippers - 43.3%
11. Wizards - 33.9%
12. Mavericks - 26.1%
13. Celtics - 23.5%
14. Bucks - 21.4%
15. Nets - 6.8%
16. Pelicans - 3.9%

Home court advantage is really showing here, with only San Antonio and Portland having over a 50% chance of winning a series without that advantage.

Odds of Winning Second Round

1. Warriors - 89.7%
2. Hawks - 73.0%
3. Cavaliers - 53.5%
4. Spurs - 48.4%
5. Clippers - 34.3%
6. Bulls - 33.0%
7. Raptors - 19.0%
8. Rockets - 15.6%
9. Celtics - 9.6%
10. Wizards - 6.4%
11. Trail Blazers - 5.2%
12. Bucks - 4.0%
13. Grizzlies - 3.6%
14. Mavericks - 1.7%
15. Nets - 1.6%
16. Pelicans - 1.5%

The #1 seeds have a pretty smooth road to the conference finals, with 3 cold teams sitting in the 4 and 5 spots right now, and Memphis not playing as well as last year. The #6 seed Spurs have a very good chance at making the Western Conference Finals for the 4th year in a row, despite probably not having home court in any round this season.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 61.6%
2. Hawks - 40.3%
3. Cavaliers - 32.5%
4. Spurs - 21.6%
5. Bulls - 16.1%
6. Clippers - 12.5%
7. Raptors - 5.5%
8. Celtics - 3.4%
9. Rockets - 2.5%
10. Wizards - 1.2%

It's not the most likely matchup, but it's very possible that we will see the Spurs and LeBron James playing against each other in the Finals for the 3rd year in a row and the 4th time in a decade. The most likely matchup is between the 2 #1 seeds, but Atlanta has not made the Finals since 1961, and Golden State since 1975, meaning neither of the favorites has seen the final round in 40 years.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 54.5%
2. Spurs - 17.8%
3. Clippers - 9.5%
4. Hawks - 7.2%
5. Cavaliers - 6.5%
6. Bulls - 2.0%
7. Rockets - 1.2%

The Western Conference has an 83% chance of winning the Finals this year, which is not surprising, since the West has been stronger for a long time.

My Picks

First Round

Hawks over Nets in 5
Cavaliers over Celtics in 6
Bulls over Bucks in 6
Raptors over Wizards in 7
Warriors over Pelicans in 5
Rockets over Mavericks in 6
Spurs over Clippers in 7
Grizzlies over Trail Blazers in 7

Second Round

Hawks over Raptors in 6
Cavaliers over Bulls in 7
Warriors over Grizzlies in 5
Spurs over Rockets in 6

Conference Finals

Hawks over Cavaliers in 7
Warriors over Spurs in 7

NBA Finals

Warriors over Hawks in 6

Predictions 

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

(5) Washington at (4) Toronto - Raptors by 4
(8) New Orleans at (1) Golden State - Warriors by 10
(6) Milwaukee at (3) Chicago - Bulls by 6
(7) Dallas at (2) Houston - Rockets by 5

Prediction Results

NBA: 11-3 (.786) 842-378 overall (.690)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 83-96 overall (.464)