College Football Rankings - Preseason

College football season begins in just over 2 weeks, meaning it's time for my yearly college football preview. Kansas State was my surprise pick at #1 to begin last season, and spent the majority of the season in that vicinity. Who starts this season at #1? My full rankings are below.

In addition to ranking each FBS team, I have included each team's predicted final record and chances of finishing the season undefeated, including any conference championship games. The rating listed with each team can be interpreted as the size of head start needed to put that team on equal footing with an average team.

TW. (LW) Team (2012 Record) Rating (Predicted Record) Undefeated Odds
1. (1) Alabama (13-1) -37.86 (12-1) 43.8%

2. (3) Oregon (12-1) -31.30 (13-0) 67.8%
3. (2) Texas A&M (11-2) -30.87 (10-2) 8.8%

4. (4) Georgia (12-2) -26.39 (12-1) 11.1%

5. (12) LSU (10-3) -22.22 (9-3)

6. (6) Oklahoma State (8-5) -20.62 (11-1) 34.5%
7. (29) Northwestern (10-3) -19.67 (11-2) 13.0%
8. (25) Texas (9-4) -19.41 (9-3) 2.4%
9. (19) Ole Miss (7-6) -19.35 (9-3)
10. (16) Oregon State (9-4) -18.98 (10-2) 1.4%
11. (47) Tulsa (11-3) -18.36 (12-1) 50.6%

12. (15) Wisconsin (8-6) -17.03 (10-2) 5.9%
13. (14) Baylor (8-5) -16.82 (10-2) 4.0%
14. (18) Arizona State (8-5) -15.85 (10-3)
15. (23) Ohio State (12-0) -15.12 (10-3) 2.3%

16. (56) Washington (7-6) -13.93 (9-3)

17. (20) Brigham Young (8-5) -12.13 (9-3) 1.0%
18. (63) Utah (5-7) -11.91 (8-4)
19. (10) South Carolina (11-2) -11.90 (9-3)
20. (8) Notre Dame (12-1) -11.08 (10-2) 3.9%
21. (7) Oklahoma (10-3) -10.95 (7-5)
22. (31) Northern Illinois (12-2) -10.12 (11-2) 9.2%
23. (40) Nebraska (10-4) -9.39 (10-2) 4.2%
24. (35) UCF (10-4) -8.99 (10-2) 4.6%
25. (78) Ohio (9-4) -8.10 (11-2) 7.6%
26. (17) Clemson (11-2) -7.72 (9-3)
27. (66) Ball State (9-4) -7.29 (10-2) 10.5%
28. (9) Florida (11-2) -7.08 (7-5)
29. (25) Miami (FL) (7-5) -7.00 (10-3) 2.9%
30. (53) Texas Tech (8-5) -6.81 (8-4)
31. (11) Florida State (12-2) -6.46 (10-3) 1.0%
32. (30) TCU (7-6) -6.20 (6-6)
33. (39) Boise State (11-2) -6.04 (9-4)
34. (70) Toledo (9-4) -5.47 (9-3) 1.1%
35. (86) Indiana (4-8) -5.02 (8-4)
36. (5) Kansas State (11-2) -4.69 (7-5)
37. (72) Western Kentucky (7-6) -4.47 (10-2) 12.0%
38. (21) Michigan (8-5) -4.333 (7-5)
39. (44) Louisville (11-2) -4.329 (9-3) 2.1%
40. (34) Penn State (8-4) -4.32 (7-5)
41. (36) Mississippi State (8-5) -3.92 (6-6)
42. (22) Utah State (11-2) -3.80 (9-3)
43. (48) North Carolina (8-4) -3.62 (9-3)
44. (26) Vanderbilt (9-4) -3.28 (7-5)
45. (38) San Jose State (11-2) -3.08 (10-3) 2.2%
46. (43) Missouri (5-7) -3.06 (6-6)
47. (28) USC (7-6) -2.53 (8-5)
48. (33) UCLA (9-5) -2.20 (6-6)
49. (24) Cincinnati (10-3) -2.07 (9-3) 3.8%
50. (98) Florida Atlantic (3-9) -1.61 (9-4)
51. (67) Rice (7-6) -1.16 (9-3)
52. (42) Michigan State (7-6) -1.06 (7-5)
53. (64) Louisiana-Monroe (8-5) -0.95 (8-4)
54. (61) Louisiana-Lafayette (9-4) -0.93 (9-3) 1.8%
55. (37) Fresno State (9-4) -0.82 (9-3) 2.5%
56. (104) Buffalo (4-8) -0.43 (7-5)
57. (69) Connecticut (5-7) -0.14 (7-5)
58. (27) Syracuse (8-5) -0.13 (7-5)
59. (62) North Carolina State (7-6) -0.04 (8-4)

60. (41) Arkansas State (10-3) 1.80 (8-4)
61. (60) Kent State (11-3) 2.08 (7-5)
62. (114) UAB (3-9) 2.71 (7-5)
63. (46) Georgia Tech (7-7) 2.88 (6-6)
64. (51) Arizona (8-5) 3.07 (6-6)
65. (85) East Carolina (8-5) 3.12 (6-6)
66. (91) Memphis (4-8) 3.94 (7-5)
67. (107) UTSA (8-4) 4.09 (6-6)
68. (101) Wyoming (4-8) 4.24 (8-4)
69. (113) Army (2-10) 4.38 (8-4)
70. (68) Nevada (7-6) 4.91 (6-6)
71. (49) Iowa State (6-7) 4.96 (4-8)
72. (92) Marshall (5-7) 5.05 (6-6)
73. (75) Purdue (6-7) 5.73 (4-8)
74. (94) Boston College (2-10) 5.77 (6-6)
75. (55) Southern Methodist (7-6) 5.91 (5-7)
76. (13) Stanford (12-2) 6.336 (3-9)
77. (58) Virginia Tech (7-6) 6.342 (6-6)
78. (54) Rutgers (9-4) 6.49 (7-5)
79. (73) Bowling Green (8-5) 6.88 (6-6)
80. (90) Washington State (3-9) 7.07 (5-7)
81. (81) Temple (4-7) 7.35 (5-7)
82. (83) Maryland (4-8) 7.58 (6-6)
83. (110) Illinois (2-10) 7.94 (3-9)
84. (93) North Texas (4-8) 8.79 (5-7)
85. (82) Middle Tennessee (8-4) 9.08 (5-7)
86. (106) Wake Forest (5-7) 9.22 (4-8)
87. (71) Iowa (4-8) 9.23 (3-9)
88. (97) Kentucky (2-10) 9.50 (4-8)
89. (59) San Diego State (9-4) 9.64 (6-6)
90. (117) Tulane (2-10) 10.16 (5-7)
91. (108) Colorado State (4-8) 10.23 (6-7)

92. (77) Duke (6-7) 12.43 (5-7)
93. (119) UNLV (2-11) 12.64 (6-6)
94. (103) Western Michigan (4-8) 12.75 (4-8)
95. (50) Louisiana Tech (9-3) 13.08 (4-8)
96. (76) Minnesota (6-7) 13.26 (4-8)
97. (118) Southern Miss (0-12) 13.34 (4-8)
98. (95) Florida International (3-9) 13.85 (4-8)
99. (87) Houston (5-7) 14.00 (3-9)
100. (79) Auburn (3-9) 14.42 (3-9)

101. (32) Pittsburgh (6-7) 15.44 (4-8)
102. (96) UTEP (3-9) 15.52 (4-8)
103. (57) Tennessee (5-7) 16.03 (3-9)
104. (100) Kansas (1-11) 16.45 (2-10)
105. (88) Virginia (4-8) 16.59 (3-9)
106. (121) Colorado (1-11) 17.07 (3-9)
107. (89) Navy (8-5) 17.49 (5-7)
108. (102) Central Michigan (7-6) 17.87 (4-8)
109. (80) Troy (5-7) 18.08 (4-8)
110. (45) West Virginia (7-6) 18.74 (3-9)

111. (111) South Alabama (2-11) 20.36 (4-8)

112. (115) Eastern Michigan (2-10) 22.17 (2-10)

113. (109) New Mexico (4-9) 23.66 (3-9)
114. (120) Akron (1-11) 24.44 (2-10)
115. (74) South Florida (3-9) 24.85 (1-11)
116. (116) Hawaii (3-9) 25.81 (1-11)
117. (84) California (3-9) 26.46 (1-11)
118. (65) Arkansas (4-8) 26.87 (2-10)

119. (105) Texas State (4-8) 28.13 (3-9)
120. (123) Massachusetts (1-11) 28.43 (3-9)

121. (112) Miami (OH) (4-8) 32.12 (1-11)
122. (99) Air Force (6-7) 32.53 (1-11)

123. (124) New Mexico State (1-11) 39.63 (2-10)

124. (122) Idaho (1-11) 44.83 (1-11)
125. (NR) Georgia State (1-10) 44.84 (2-10)

Ranked Teams by Conference

SEC - 6
Pac 12 - 5
Big 12 - 4
Big 10 - 4
Ind - 2
MAC - 2
CUSA - 1
AAC - 1

Alabama has won 3 of the last 4 BCS championships, and is returning star quarterback AJ McCarron, who is looking to win his third straight title as starting quarterback. The Crimson Tide will have plenty of competition in the SEC, which owns 4 of the top 5 spots in my rankings, as well as 5 of the top 10, and they face Texas A&M on the third weekend of the season, which could be to their advantage if it turns out to be their only loss of the season, giving them 10 more games to climb back up the rankings and finish in position for another title game.

Oregon may have switched coaches in the offseason, but they didn't switch offensive systems or quarterbacks, so there is little doubt that the Ducks will once again be in contention for a spot in the national title game. Their biggest challenge of the season could come at Washington in mid-October, where the Huskies will be looking to continue the momentum they had near the end of last season.

Northwestern is looking to be one of the biggest surprises of the upcoming season after coming off a 10-3 season that ranks among the best in school history. The Wildcats are bringing back a large portion of last season's roster, and they could ride that experience clear to the conference championship game, where Ohio State hopes to be waiting after being ineligible for the postseason a year ago.

Tulsa is looking to be the final BCS buster before the implementation of a 4-team playoff next season, but their biggest challenge will be strength of schedule, which isn't much where their conference foes are concerned. To have a realistic shot at one of the big games, they will have to win their biggest non-conference game, which comes in week 3 at Oklahoma, which luckily isn't far from home for the Golden Hurricane faithful. A win there and Tulsa should coast to a perfect season.