The opening weekend of college football season extends almost an entire week, with games starting Thursday and not finishing up until Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech wrap up their battle on Monday night. I have picked the winner of every game involving an FBS school this week, along with their projected margin of victory, if they are playing another FBS school. Upset picks are in italics.
Thursday
(9) South Carolina at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 9
UCF at Akron - Knights by 48
Eastern Michigan at Ball State - Cardinals by 6
Southeastern Missouri at Central Michigan - Chippewas
Towson at Kent State - Golden Flashes
Northern Colorado at Utah - Utes
Texas-San Antonio at South Alabama - Jaguars by 6
Massachusetts at Connecticut - Huskies by 23
UCLA at Rice - Owls by 15
McNeese State at Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders
Sacramento State at New Mexico State - Aggies
Southern Utah at Utah State - Aggies
Eastern Washington at Idaho - Vandals
Washington State at BYU - WSU Cougars by 6
Northern Arizona at Arizona State - Sun Devils
Minnesota at UNLV - Golden Gophers by 17
Friday
(24) Boise State at (13) Michigan State - Broncos by 7
Villanova at Temple - Owls
Tennessee at North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 6
Wagner at Florida Atlantic - Owls
San Jose State at (21) Stanford - Cardinal by 38
Saturday
Notre Dame vs. Navy - Irish by 30
Troy at UAB - Trojans by 3
Tulsa at Iowa State - Cyclones by 19
Appalachian State at East Carolina - Pirates
Northwestern at Syracuse - Orange by 7
Miami-Ohio at (18) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 1
Ohio at Penn State - Nittany Lions by 7
Marshall at (11) West Virginia - Mountaineers by 17
Western Michigan at Illinois - Illini by 3
Buffalo at (6) Georgia - Bulldogs by 49
Elon at North Carolina - Tar Heels
Idaho State at Air Force - Falcons
Nevada at California - Golden Bears by 41
William & Mary at Maryland - Terrapins
Nicholls State at Oregon State - Beavers
Richmond at Virginia - Cavaliers
Bowling Green at (23) Florida - Falcons by 3
Miami at Boston College - Eagles by 43
Southern Miss at (17) Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 34
Northern Iowa at (12) Wisconsin - Badgers
Iowa at Northern Illinois - Hawkeyes by 10
Eastern Kentucky at Purdue - Boilermakers
Colorado State vs. Colorado - Rams by 11
Southern at New Mexico - Lobos
Murray State at (7) Florida State - Seminoles
Youngstown State at Pittsburgh - Panthers
Liberty at Wake Forest - Demon Deacons
(14) Clemson vs. Auburn - Clemson Tigers by 23
Jacksonville State at (10) Arkansas - Razorbacks
Chattanooga at South Florida - Bulls
Austin Peay at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers
North Texas at (3) LSU - Tigers by 37
Southeastern Louisiana at Missouri - Tigers
Central Arkansas at Mississippi - Rebels
Florida International at Duke - Blue Devils by 17
Savannah State at (19) Oklahoma State - Cowboys
Tennessee-Martin at Memphis - Tigers
Lamar at Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns
Jackson State at Mississippi State - Bulldogs
South Dakota State at Kansas - Jayhawks
Missouri State at (22) Kansas State - Wildcats
Northwestern State at Texas Tech - Red Raiders
Hawaii at (1) USC - Trojans by 46
Indiana State at Indiana - Hoosiers
Texas State at Houston - Cougars
Wyoming at (15) Texas - Longhorns by 31
(8) Michigan vs. (2) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 3
Rutgers at Tulane - Scarlet Knights by 22
Weber State at Fresno State - Bulldogs
Toledo at Arizona - Rockets by 21
San Diego State at Washington - Huskies by 24
Arkansas State at (5) Oregon - Ducks
(4) Oklahoma at UTEP - Sooners by 44
Sunday
Kentucky at (25) Louisville - Cardinals by 12
SMU at Baylor - Mustangs by 21
Monday
Georgia Tech at (16) Virginia Tech - Hokies by 3
My pick percentage last season was 71.6%, up from 66% the previous season. Let's see if I can hit 75% this season.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Saturday, August 11, 2012
College Football Preseason Rankings
It's just 3 weeks until football finally returns, and it's time to predict how each team will fare during the upcoming season. Unlike the national polls, which are based solely on the opinions of coaches and media, my preseason rankings are based on last season's performance combined with a formula determining how intact last season's team is coming into this season. The result has several teams that are expected to be here, along with several teams that will surprise everyone, myself included. These are the 25 teams which should perform best this season, with last season's final ESPN ranking in parentheses, and this season's best predicted finish also included.
Rank. (Last) Team (2011 Rec) 2012 Best (ESPN)
1. (16) Kansas State (10-3) 12-0 (21)
2. (NR) USC (10-2) 11-1 (3)
3. (1) Alabama (12-1) 12-0 (2)
4. (18) West Virginia (10-3) 11-1 (11)
5. (15) Oklahoma (10-3) 10-2 (4)
6. (9) Michigan (11-2) 10-2 (8)
7. (28) Texas (8-5) 10-2 (15)
8. (NR) Utah (8-5) 12-0 (32)
9. (24) Nebraska (9-4) 12-0 (16)
10. (23) Florida State (9-4) 12-0 (7)
11. (13) TCU (11-2) 9-3 (17)
12. (NR) Air Force (7-6) 11-1 (NR)
13. (NR) California (7-6) 9-3 (NR)
14. (NR) Vanderbilt (6-7) 10-2 (NR)
15. (27) Missouri (8-5) 10-2 (43)
16. (2) LSU (13-1) 11-1 (1)
17. (22) Clemson (10-4) 11-1 (14)
18. (NR) Pittsburgh (6-7) 10-2 (NR)
19. (8) South Carolina (11-2) 9-3 (9)
20. (36) Notre Dame (8-5) 9-3 (24)
21. (NR) Oregon State (3-9) 11-1 (NR)
22. (3) Oklahoma State (12-1) 7-5 (19)
23. (NR) Purdue (7-6) 10-2 (NR)
24. (NR) SMU (8-5) 11-1 (NR)
25. (30) Rutgers (9-4) 9-3 (41)
Teams Falling from Last Season's Final Rankings
(4) Oregon
(5) Arkansas
(6) Boise State
(7) Stanford
(10) Michigan State
(11) Wisconsin
(12) Baylor
(14) Houston
(17) Virginia Tech
(19) Southern Miss
(20) Georgia
(21) Cincinnati
(25) Brigham Young
ESPN Preseason Ranked Teams Not Ranked Above
Oregon (5)
Georgia (6)
Arkansas (10)
Wisconsin (12)
Michigan State (13)
Stanford (18)
Virginia Tech (20)
Boise State (22)
Florida (23)
Auburn (25)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Pac 12 - 4
Big 10 - 3
ACC - 2
Big East - 2
MWC - 1
Ind - 1
CUSA - 1
Kansas State is the biggest surprise on this list, jumping clear to the #1 spot without even reaching the top 20 of the Coaches Poll, but the pick makes sense. They play in the deepest conference in the nation, and finished last season with just three losses, all to teams that finished in my top 10 last season. Add to that the fact that they are returning every important starting player from last season's team, and you have the makings of a powerful team. Will they finish #1? That depends on how they play on the road, where they face Oklahoma, West Virginia, and TCU this season. If they can make it through those games unscathed, we may be looking at the first non-SEC national champion in 7 years.
USC is back after several years of ineligibility due to NCAA sanctions, and they look like they are ready to resume their spot as one of the top teams in the country. They lost only twice last season, but with Matt Barkley returning for his senior season, they look poised to win the Pac 12 title yet again. Their only loss in the final 2 months of last season was a triple overtime thriller against Stanford, and they closed their season with a 50-0 thrashing of rival UCLA.
The defending national champs may have lost Trent Richardson to the NFL, but if history is any indicator, Alabama will find another great running back to take his place, just as Richardson filled the void left by Mark Ingram a few seasons ago. The SEC has won the last 6 national titles, and Alabama seems like the favorite to take the conference title this season, which puts them in the driver's seat for a possible repeat, which would be the first of the BCS era.
West Virginia moves to the Big 12 after another mediocre season in the Big East, but with a roster that is mostly intact and most of their toughest games scheduled at home, the Mountaineers could actually win the conference in their first year. The Big 12 became much stronger in the offseason, adding the conference champions from the Big East and Mountain West while getting rid of two of its middle-of-the-road teams to the SEC. Whichever team comes out of this loaded conference has a great argument for being included in the title game.
Check back over the next couple weeks as a get my opening weekend predictions posted and give you my preseason NFL rankings as well.
Rank. (Last) Team (2011 Rec) 2012 Best (ESPN)
1. (16) Kansas State (10-3) 12-0 (21)
2. (NR) USC (10-2) 11-1 (3)
3. (1) Alabama (12-1) 12-0 (2)
4. (18) West Virginia (10-3) 11-1 (11)
5. (15) Oklahoma (10-3) 10-2 (4)
6. (9) Michigan (11-2) 10-2 (8)
7. (28) Texas (8-5) 10-2 (15)
8. (NR) Utah (8-5) 12-0 (32)
9. (24) Nebraska (9-4) 12-0 (16)
10. (23) Florida State (9-4) 12-0 (7)
11. (13) TCU (11-2) 9-3 (17)
12. (NR) Air Force (7-6) 11-1 (NR)
13. (NR) California (7-6) 9-3 (NR)
14. (NR) Vanderbilt (6-7) 10-2 (NR)
15. (27) Missouri (8-5) 10-2 (43)
16. (2) LSU (13-1) 11-1 (1)
17. (22) Clemson (10-4) 11-1 (14)
18. (NR) Pittsburgh (6-7) 10-2 (NR)
19. (8) South Carolina (11-2) 9-3 (9)
20. (36) Notre Dame (8-5) 9-3 (24)
21. (NR) Oregon State (3-9) 11-1 (NR)
22. (3) Oklahoma State (12-1) 7-5 (19)
23. (NR) Purdue (7-6) 10-2 (NR)
24. (NR) SMU (8-5) 11-1 (NR)
25. (30) Rutgers (9-4) 9-3 (41)
Teams Falling from Last Season's Final Rankings
(4) Oregon
(5) Arkansas
(6) Boise State
(7) Stanford
(10) Michigan State
(11) Wisconsin
(12) Baylor
(14) Houston
(17) Virginia Tech
(19) Southern Miss
(20) Georgia
(21) Cincinnati
(25) Brigham Young
ESPN Preseason Ranked Teams Not Ranked Above
Oregon (5)
Georgia (6)
Arkansas (10)
Wisconsin (12)
Michigan State (13)
Stanford (18)
Virginia Tech (20)
Boise State (22)
Florida (23)
Auburn (25)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Pac 12 - 4
Big 10 - 3
ACC - 2
Big East - 2
MWC - 1
Ind - 1
CUSA - 1
Kansas State is the biggest surprise on this list, jumping clear to the #1 spot without even reaching the top 20 of the Coaches Poll, but the pick makes sense. They play in the deepest conference in the nation, and finished last season with just three losses, all to teams that finished in my top 10 last season. Add to that the fact that they are returning every important starting player from last season's team, and you have the makings of a powerful team. Will they finish #1? That depends on how they play on the road, where they face Oklahoma, West Virginia, and TCU this season. If they can make it through those games unscathed, we may be looking at the first non-SEC national champion in 7 years.
USC is back after several years of ineligibility due to NCAA sanctions, and they look like they are ready to resume their spot as one of the top teams in the country. They lost only twice last season, but with Matt Barkley returning for his senior season, they look poised to win the Pac 12 title yet again. Their only loss in the final 2 months of last season was a triple overtime thriller against Stanford, and they closed their season with a 50-0 thrashing of rival UCLA.
The defending national champs may have lost Trent Richardson to the NFL, but if history is any indicator, Alabama will find another great running back to take his place, just as Richardson filled the void left by Mark Ingram a few seasons ago. The SEC has won the last 6 national titles, and Alabama seems like the favorite to take the conference title this season, which puts them in the driver's seat for a possible repeat, which would be the first of the BCS era.
West Virginia moves to the Big 12 after another mediocre season in the Big East, but with a roster that is mostly intact and most of their toughest games scheduled at home, the Mountaineers could actually win the conference in their first year. The Big 12 became much stronger in the offseason, adding the conference champions from the Big East and Mountain West while getting rid of two of its middle-of-the-road teams to the SEC. Whichever team comes out of this loaded conference has a great argument for being included in the title game.
Check back over the next couple weeks as a get my opening weekend predictions posted and give you my preseason NFL rankings as well.
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