The first round of the NBA Playoffs ended earlier this afternoon, and I was able to predict the winner in all 8 first round series, and was even able to pick the correct number of games in 5 of the series. I have updated my odds to include all first round games, ignoring the second round game that happened today, to show how each team's odds changed as a result of the first round, and I'm also reposting my playoff picks at the end, with a couple of updates.
Odds of Reaching Conference Finals
1. Warriors - 92.4% (+3.1)
2. Spurs - 62.9% (+3.1)
3. Celtics - 61.1% (+17.0)
4. Raptors - 51.8% (+3.0)
5. Cavaliers - 48.2% (+11.2)
6. Wizards - 38.9% (+3.2)
7. Rockets - 37.1% (+2.8)
8. Jazz - 7.6% (+3.6)
Boston and Cleveland were much better than expected in the first round, hence the large jumps they each made. The other teams all did pretty much what they were supposed to, creating more modest increases.
Odds of Reaching NBA Finals
1. Warriors - 76.7 % (+2.7)
2. Celtics - 31.1% (+8.7)
3. Raptors - 29.3% (-2.0)
4. Cavaliers - 25.1% (+3.8)
5. Spurs - 14.8% (-0.8)
6. Wizards - 14.5% (-0.3)
7. Rockets - 6.2% (-0.2)
8. Jazz - 2.3% (+1.0)
The same two teams were the big winners here, but both the Warriors and Jazz saw their odds increase as well, Golden State due to its blowout performances throughout the first round, and Utah due to pulling off the only series upset of the first round.
Odds of Winning Championship
1. Warriors - 73.5% (+2.9)
2. Spurs - 12.1% (-0.8)
3. Rockets - 4.6% (-0.2)
4. Raptors - 2.9% (-1.0)
5. Celtics - 2.6% (+0.6)
6. Cavaliers - 2.0% (+0.0)
7. Jazz - 1.4% (+1.4)
8. Wizards - 0.8% (-0.3)
Golden State was the biggest winner overall from the first round, as they had no trouble at all with Portland, and the Clippers were ousted by Utah. Utah's odds went from virtually zero to slight, which is nothing to complain about.
Playoff Picks
First Round
(1) Celtics over (8) Bulls in 7 (off by 1)
(2) Cavaliers over (7) Pacers in 7 (off by 3)
(3) Raptors over (6) Bucks in 6 (exact)
(4) Wizards over (5) Hawks in 7 (off by 1)
(1) Warriors over (8) Trail Blazers in 4 (exact)
(2) Spurs over (7) Grizzlies in 6 (exact)
(3) Rockets over (6) Thunder in 5 (exact)
(5) Jazz over (4) Clippers in 7 (exact)
Second Round
(1) Celtics over (4) Wizards in 6 (prev Wizards in 7)
(2) Cavaliers over (3) Raptors in 7 (prev Raptors in 6)
(1) Warriors over (5) Jazz in 5 (no change)
(2) Spurs over (3) Rockets in 6 (no change)
Conference Finals
(2) Cavaliers over (1) Celtics in 7 (prev Raptors in 6)
(1) Warriors over (2) Spurs in 5 (no change)
NBA Finals
(1) Warriors over (2) Cavaliers in 5 (no change)
Cleveland's late-season struggles made it look like they might not make it back to the Finals, but they turned on the switch in the first round, and it now looks like the first ever Finals three-match is back on track.
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