NCAA Tournament Odds - 2017

It's time for my favorite post of the year, my breakdown of everything related to the NCAA Tournament. I have analyzed the data from every game played this year by all 351 Division I teams, and have used that to figure out the odds of any team beating any other team among those still remaining, as well as the odds of those matchups even taking place. Hope this helps you fill out a winning bracket!

Best Teams Left Out

35. Indiana
39. Clemson
46. Syracuse

This year there were only 3 teams ranked among my top 36 at-large teams that did not get selected for the field, and all 3 lost at least 14 games this season, and no team has ever been selected for an at-large bid with more than 14 until this year.

Lowest Ranked At-Large Teams

Seed in parentheses

53. Seton Hall (9)
59. Providence (11)
65. USC (11)

Providence and USC were among the last 4 teams to get in, so it's no surprise to see them on this list. Last year, 5 of the 6 teams on this list lost in their very first game, and the other lost in the second round, so don't look for these teams to make a run.

Most Underseeded Teams

These are the teams that were seeded much lower than they should have been, and therefore have become likely teams to pull off early upsets:

1. Wichita State (10)
2. Wake Forest (11)
3. Virginia (5)
4. Oklahoma State (10)
5. Kansas State (11)
6. West Virginia (4)
7. Florida (4)
8. SMU (6)
9. Saint Mary's (7)
10. Wisconsin (8)

The only one of these that is glaring is Wichita State, as the committee did one of its best seedings overall that I have seen. Last season, three of the top 4 on this list pulled off upsets, with 11-seed Gonzaga reaching the Sweet 16 and 14-seed Stephen F Austin knocking off West Virginia in the first round.

Most Overseedeed Teams

1. Maryland (6)
2. Arizona (2)
3. Butler (4)
4. Minnesota (5)
5. Dayton (7)
6. Seton Hall (9)
7. Kansas (1)
8. Baylor (3)
9. South Carolina (7)
10. Northwestern (8)

Last season, 8 of the teams on this list were upset within the first two rounds, so don't hang your hopes on these teams. This year, there is only one first-round matchup of teams from opposite lists, Wichita State vs. Dayton, which is also my top upset pick.

Number of First Round Upsets

9.2

Coincidentally, that is the exact same number projected last year, when there ended up being 13. The safe range is from 8 to 11.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

(10) Wichita State over (7) Dayton - 67.2%
(9) Vanderbilt over (8) Northwestern - 51.9%
(10) Marquette over (7) South Carolina - 50.7%
(11) Xavier over (6) Maryland - 49.7%
(10) Oklahoma State over (7) Michigan - 48.3%
(9) Michigan State over (8) Miami - 46.2%
(9) Seton Hall over (8) Arkansas - 45.3%
(12) Middle Tennessee over (5) Minnesota - 44.9%
(11) Rhode Island over (6) Creighton - 43.6%
(11) Kansas State/Wake Forest over (6) Cincinnati - 40.8%

Last season, 7 of the 10 upsets on my list happened, so these are definitely the first place to look for lower-seeded winners.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull an Upset

(15) North Dakota over (2) Arizona - 16.0%
(15) Troy over (2) Duke - 14.4%
(15) Northern Kentucky over (2) Kentucky - 7.3%
(16) North Carolina Central/UC Davis over (1) Kansas - 7.1%
(15) Jacksonville State over (2) Louisville - 6.7%

There is a decent chance that one of the #15 seeds will go down this year, but only a couple are even worth thinking about on a bracket.

Most Likely Cinderellas

These are the lower seeds most likely to reach the Sweet 16.

(10) Wichita State - 32.2%
(10) Oklahoma State - 20.4%
(12) Middle Tennessee - 19.9%
(11) Xavier - 19.6%
(10) Marquette - 19.2%
(11) Rhode Island - 18.2%
(11) Kansas State/Wake Forest - 18.0%
(10) VCU - 15.6%
(9) Michigan State - 15.4%
(12) Nevada - 11.8%

Last year both Cinderellas (Gonzaga and Syracuse) were included on my list, so these are the best teams to look to if you want to see a deep run from a low seed.

Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16

2.7

Last season's projection was 2.2, and there ended up being 2, so the projection was right on. Look for 2 or 3 this year.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.2

Last year the number was 1.0, and exactly 1 (North Carolina) made it, so don't be picking too many of the top seeds to get there.

Odds of #1 Seed Winning the Tournament

39.2%

That is up slightly from last season's 33.4%, when it turned out that a #2 won it all.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Gonzaga - 79.4%
(1) North Carolina - 75.1%
(1) Villanova - 70.1%
(1) Kansas - 63.0%
(2) Duke - 58.0%
(2) Kentucky - 56.4%
(2) Louisville - 56.0%
(4) West Virginia - 52.8%
(3) Florida State - 52.6%
(3) Oregon - 49.7%
(3) UCLA - 47.8%
(2) Arizona - 45.6%
(4) Florida - 44.4%
(3) Baylor - 43.0%
(4) Butler - 42.7%
(4) Purdue - 42.4%

(6) SMU - 41.1%
(5) Virginia - 39.0%
(7) Saint Mary's - 35.5%
(5) Iowa State - 35.2%
(10) Wichita State - 32.2%
(6) Cincinnati - 31.4%

Last year 10 of the 16 Sweet 16 teams were among my top 16 most likely, and 3 more were on the lower list, so expect a good number of these teams to make it through this weekend.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Gonzaga - 37.5%
(1) North Carolina - 31.8%
(1) Villanova - 27.3%
(2) Kentucky - 20.3%
(2) Louisville - 20.0%
(1) Kansas - 19.4%
(2) Duke - 16.1%
(4) West Virginia - 16.0%
(4) Florida - 12.9%
(4) Purdue - 12.8%
(3) Oregon - 12.7%
(3) Florida State - 12.6%
(3) UCLA - 10.8%
(5) Virginia - 10.5%
(6) SMU - 10.1%
(3) Baylor - 10.1%

Kansas is the #1 seed least likely to make it to the Final Four, but there are plenty of other good candidates from each region. Three of last year's Final Four were among the top 7 on my list.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Gonzaga - 14.6%
(1) North Carolina - 10.5%
(1) Villanova - 9.4%
(2) Kentucky - 6.2%
(2) Louisville - 5.3%
(4) West Virginia - 4.7%
(1) Kansas - 4.7%
(2) Duke - 4.1%
(4) Florida - 3.6%
(4) Purdue - 3.0%

Last year's champ, Villanova, had a 6.3% chance at the start of the tourney, which was #6 on my list, so these are the teams you should look at to finish off your bracket.

Overall Bracket

These are my picks for the entire bracket this season, with upset picks in italics.

First Round Winners

(1) Villanova
(8) Wisconsin
(5) Virginia
(4) Florida
(6) SMU
(3) Baylor
(10) Marquette
(2) Duke

(1) Gonzaga
(9) Vanderbilt
(5) Notre Dame
(4) West Virginia
(11) Xavier
(3) Florida State
(7) Saint Mary's
(2) Arizona

(1) Kansas
(9) Michigan State
(5) Iowa State
(4) Purdue
(11) Rhode Island
(3) Oregon
(10) Oklahoma State
(2) Louisville

(1) North Carolina
(9) Seton Hall
(12) Middle Tennessee
(4) Butler
(11) Kansas State/Wake Forest
(3) UCLA
(10) Wichita State
(2) Kentucky

That is 10 upset predictions for the first round.

Sweet 16

(1) Villanova
(5) Virginia
(6) SMU
(2) Duke

(1) Gonzaga
(4) West Virginia
(3) Florida State
(7) Saint Mary's

(1) Kansas
(5) Iowa State
(3) Oregon
(2) Louisville

(1) North Carolina
(4) Butler
(3) UCLA
(2) Kentucky

Elite Eight

(1) Villanova
(6) SMU

(1) Gonzaga
(7) Saint Mary's

(1) Kansas
(2) Louisville

(1) North Carolina
(2) Kentucky

Only the ACC and the WCC get more than 1 team in the Elite Eight.

Final Four

(1) Villanova
(1) Gonzaga
(2) Louisville
(2) Kentucky

Title Game

(1) Gonzaga
(2) Kentucky

Champion

(2) Kentucky