Other than a few games being played today, the regular season is over, and teams are now fighting to earn their conference's automatic berth, or at least get a couple more quality wins to help their case next week. Here is my current breakdown of tournament probability by conference, with teams that moved up or down in italics:
American
Definitely In
SMU
Good Wins: TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, @ Houston
Good Losses:vs Michigan, @ USC, @ Cincinnati
Bad Losses:@ Boise State
Cincinnati
Good Wins:@ Iowa State, @ Houston, SMU, Xavier, Houston
Good Losses:vs Rhode Island, @ Butler, @ SMU
Bad Losses:@ UCF
Good Chance
Houston
Good Wins:vs Vermont, Rhode Island
Good Losses:@ Arkansas, Cincinnati, @ SMU, SMU, @ Cincinnati
Bad Losses:@ LSU, Harvard, @ UCF, Memphis
Atlantic 10
Probably In
Dayton
Good Wins:East Tennessee State, Vanderbilt, Rhode Island, @ Rhode Island, VCU
Good Losses: Saint Mary's, vs Northwestern, @ VCU
Bad Losses:vs Nebraska, @ Massachusetts, @ George Washington
Solid Chance
VCU
Good Wins:Princeton, Middle Tennessee, Dayton
Good Losses:vs Baylor, vs Illinois, @ Rhode Island, @ Dayton
Bad Losses:Georgia Tech, @ Davidson, @ Fordham
Good Chance
Rhode Island
Good Wins:vs Cincinnati, VCU
Good Losses:vs Duke, @ Providence, @ Houston, @ Dayton, Dayton
Bad Losses:@ Valparaiso, La Salle, @ Richmond, Fordham
ACC
Definitely In
North Carolina
Good Wins:vs Oklahoma State, vs Wisconsin, Monmouth, @ Clemson, @ Wake Forest, Florida State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia, Louisville, Duke
Good Losses:@ Indiana, vs Kentucky, @ Miami (FL), @ Duke, @ Virginia
Bad Losses:@ Georgia Tech
Louisville
Good Wins:vs Wichita State, Purdue, Kentucky, vs Indiana, Duke, Clemson, Miami (FL), @ Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Notre Dame
Good Losses:vs Baylor, Virginia, @ Notre Dame, @ Florida State, @ Virginia, @ North Carolina, @ Wake Forest
Bad Losses:None
Florida State
Good Wins:vs Illinois, Minnesota, Florida, Wake Forest, @ Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, @ Miami (FL), Clemson, @ Clemson, Miami (FL)
Good Losses:@ North Carolina, @ Syracuse, @ Notre Dame, @ Duke
Bad Losses:vs Temple, @ Georgia Tech, @ Pittsburgh
Notre Dame
Good Wins:vs Northwestern, Iowa, Louisville, Clemson, @ Miami (FL), @ Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Florida State
Good Losses:vs Villanova, vs Purdue, @ Florida State, Virginia, Duke, @ North Carolina, @ Louisville
Bad Losses:@ Georgia Tech
Duke
Good Wins:vs Rhode Island, Michigan State, vs Florida, Miami (FL), @ Wake Forest, @ Notre Dame, North Carolina, Clemson, @ Virginia, Wake Forest, Florida State
Good Losses:vs Kansas, @ Virginia Tech, @ Florida State, @ Louisville, @ Syracuse, @ Miami (FL), @ North Carolina
Bad Losses:NC State
Virginia
Good Wins:vs Iowa, vs Providence, Ohio State, @ California, @ Louisville, Wake Forest, @ Clemson, @ Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina
Good Losses:West Virginia, Florida State, @ Villanova, @ Syracuse, @ Virginia Tech, Duke, @ North Carolina, Miami (FL)
Bad Losses:@ Pittsburgh
Miami (FL)
Good Wins:North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Clemson, @ Virginia, Duke
Good Losses:vs Iowa State, vs Florida, @ Syracuse, Notre Dame, @ Wake Forest, @ Duke, Florida State, @ Louisville, @ Virginia Tech, @ Florida State
Bad Losses:None
Wake Forest
Good Wins: Bucknell, Miami (FL), Louisville, @ Virginia Tech
Good Losses:vs Villanova, @ Northwestern, @ Xavier, @ Florida State, Clemson, @ Virginia, North Carolina, @ Syracuse, Duke, @ Notre Dame, @ Clemson, @ Duke
Bad Losses:None
Solid Chance
Clemson
Good Wins:Georgia, @ South Carolina, UNC Wilmington, @ Wake Forest, Wake Forest
Good Losses:vs Xavier, North Carolina, @ Notre Dame, Virginia, @ Louisville, Virginia Tech, @ Florida State, Syracuse, @ Duke, @ Miami (FL), @ Virginia Tech, Florida State
Bad Losses:vs Oklahoma, @ Georgia Tech
Good Chance
Virginia Tech
Good Wins:@ Michigan, Duke, Syracuse, @ Clemson, Virginia, Clemson, Miami (FL)
Good Losses:vs Texas A&M, @ Florida State, Notre Dame, @ North Carolina, @ Virginia, @ Miami (FL), @ Louisville, Wake Forest
Bad Losses:@ NC State
Syracuse
Good Wins:Monmouth, Miami (FL), Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia, @ Clemson, Duke
Good Losses:vs South Carolina, @ Wisconsin, @ Virginia Tech, @ North Carolina, @ Notre Dame, Louisville, @ Louisville
Bad Losses:vs Connecticut, Georgetown, St. John's, @ Boston College, @ Pittsburgh, @ Georgia Tech
Big 12
Definitely In
Kansas
Good Wins:vs Duke, vs Georgia, @ TCU, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, @ Iowa State, @ Kentucky, Baylor, @ Kansas State, @ Texas Tech, West Virginia, @ Baylor, TCU, @ Oklahoma State
Good Losses:vs Indiana, @ West Virginia, Iowa State
Bad Losses:None
West Virginia
Good Wins:vs Illinois, @ Virginia, @ Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M, @ Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, @ TCU, Iowa State
Good Losses:@ Texas Tech, @ Kansas State, Oklahoma State, @ Kansas, @ Baylor
Bad Losses:vs Temple, Oklahoma
Iowa State
Good Wins:vs Miami (FL), Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, Kansas State, @ Kansas, @ Kansas State, TCU, @ Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State
Good Losses:vs Gonzaga, Cincinnati, @ Iowa, @ Baylor, @ TCU, Kansas, @ Vanderbilt, West Virginia, @ West Virginia
Bad Losses:@ Texas
Baylor
Good Wins:Oregon, vs VCU, vs Michigan State, vs Louisville, Xavier, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, @ Kansas State, @ TCU, Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia
Good Losses:@ West Virginia, @ Kansas, Kansas State, @ Texas Tech, Kansas, @ Iowa State
Bad Losses:None
Oklahoma State
Good Wins:@ Wichita State, West Virginia, @ Texas Tech, TCU, Arkansas, @ West Virginia, @ TCU, @ Kansas State, Texas Tech
Good Losses:vs North Carolina, @ Maryland, @ Baylor, Iowa State, @ Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, @ Iowa State, Kansas
Bad Losses:@ Texas
Probably In
Kansas State
Good Wins:@ Oklahoma State, West Virginia, @ Iowa State, @ Baylor, @ TCU, Texas Tech
Good Losses:vs Maryland, @ Kansas, @ Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Kansas, @ West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
Bad Losses:@ Tennessee, @ Oklahoma
Still a Chance
TCU
Good Wins:Illinois State, Iowa State, @ Kansas State, Texas Tech
Good Losses:@ SMU, Kansas, @ West Virginia, @ Texas Tech, Baylor, @ Oklahoma State, @ Baylor, Oklahoma State, @ Iowa State, @ Kansas, West Virginia, Kansas State
Bad Losses:Auburn, @ Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Good Wins:West Virginia, Kansas State, TCU, Baylor
Good Losses:@ Iowa State, @ Kansas, Oklahoma State, @ Baylor, @ TCU, Kansas, @ West Virginia, Iowa State, @ Oklahoma State, @ Kansas State
Bad Losses:vs Auburn, @ Oklahoma, @ Texas
Big East
Definitely In
Villanova
Good Wins:@ Purdue, vs Wake Forest, vs Notre Dame, @ Creighton, Marquette, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, Virginia, @ Providence, @ Xavier, @ Seton Hall, Creighton
Good Losses:@ Butler, @ Marquette, Butler
Bad Losses:None
Butler
Good Wins:Northwestern, Bucknell, vs Vanderbilt, vs Arizona, @ Utah, Cincinnati, vs Indiana, Vermont, Providence, Villanova, Xavier, Marquette, @ Seton Hall, @ Marquette, @ Villanova, @ Xavier
Good Losses:@ Creighton, Creighton, @ Providence, Seton Hall
Bad Losses:@ Indiana State, @ St. John's, Georgetown
Creighton
Good Wins:Wisconsin, Seton Hall, @ Providence, Butler, @ Xavier, @ Butler
Good Losses: Villanova, Marquette, Xavier, @ Seton Hall, Providence, @ Villanova, @ Marquette
Bad Losses:@ Georgetown
Probably In
Marquette
Good Wins:vs Vanderbilt, @ Georgia, Seton Hall, @ Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, @ Xavier, Creighton
Good Losses:vs Michigan, Wisconsin, @ Seton Hall, @ Villanova, @ Butler, Providence, Butler, @ Providence
Bad Losses:vs Pittsburgh, @ St. John's, @ Georgetown
Good Chance
Xavier
Good Wins:vs Clemson, Utah, Wake Forest, Providence, Seton Hall, @ Creighton
Good Losses:@ Baylor, @ Villanova, @ Butler, Creighton, @ Cincinnati, Villanova, @ Providence, @ Marquette, @ Seton Hall, Butler, Marquette
Bad Losses:@ Colorado
Still a Chance
Providence
Good Wins:Vermont, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, @ Marquette, Butler, Xavier, @ Creighton, Marquette
Good Losses:@ Ohio State, vs Virginia, @ Xavier, @ Butler, Creighton, @ Villanova, Villanova, @ Seton Hall
Bad Losses:@ Boston College, @ DePaul, St. John's
Seton Hall
Good Wins:@ Iowa, vs California, vs South Carolina, Marquette, Providence, Creighton, Xavier, @ Butler
Good Losses:vs Florida, @ Creighton, @ Marquette, @ Providence, @ Villanova, Butler, @ Xavier, Villanova
Bad Losses:vs Stanford, @ St. John's
Big Ten
Definitely In
Purdue
Good Wins:vs Notre Dame, Iowa, @ Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, @ Michigan State, Northwestern, @ Maryland, @ Indiana, Michigan State, Indiana
Good Losses: Villanova, @ Louisville, Minnesota, @ Iowa, @ Nebraska, @ Michigan
Bad Losses:None
Wisconsin
Good Wins:Syracuse, @ Marquette, @ Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan, @ Minnesota, @ Illinois, Indiana, Maryland
Good Losses:@ Creighton, vs North Carolina, @ Purdue, Northwestern, @ Michigan, @ Ohio State, @ Michigan State, Iowa
Bad Losses:None
Minnesota
Good Wins:UT Arlington, Arkansas, vs Vanderbilt, @ Purdue, @ Northwestern, Ohio State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, @ Maryland
Good Losses:@ Florida State, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Wisconsin, @ Ohio State, Maryland
Bad Losses:@ Penn State
Michigan
Good Wins:vs Marquette, vs SMU, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State, @ Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue
Good Losses:@ South Carolina, Virginia Tech, @ UCLA, @ Iowa, Maryland, @ Illinois, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Minnesota, @ Northwestern
Bad Losses:None
Solid Chance
Maryland
Good Wins:vs Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Illinois, @ Michigan, Indiana, @ Illinois, @ Iowa, @ Minnesota, @ Ohio State, Ohio State, @ Northwestern, Michigan State
Good Losses:Purdue, @ Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa
Bad Losses:Pittsburgh, Nebraska, @ Penn State
Northwestern
Good Wins:Wake Forest, vs Dayton, Iowa, @ Ohio State, Indiana, @ Wisconsin, Michigan
Good Losses:@ Butler, vs Notre Dame, @ Michigan State, Minnesota, @ Purdue, Illinois, Maryland, @ Illinois, @ Indiana
Bad Losses:None
Indiana
Good Wins:vs Kansas, North Carolina, Illinois, Michigan State, Northwestern, @ Ohio State
Good Losses:vs Butler, vs Louisville, Wisconsin, @ Maryland, @ Michigan, @ Northwestern, @ Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan, @ Minnesota, @ Iowa, @ Purdue
Bad Losses:@ Fort Wayne, Nebraska
Still a Chance
Michigan State
Good Wins:vs Wichita State, @ Minnesota, Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Good Losses:vs Arizona, vs Kentucky, vs Baylor, @ Duke, @ Ohio State, @ Indiana, Purdue, @ Michigan, @ Purdue, @ Illinois, @ Maryland
Bad Losses:Northeastern, vs Penn State
Iowa
Good Wins:Iowa State, Michigan, Purdue, Ohio State, Indiana, @ Maryland, @ Wisconsin
Good Losses:Seton Hall, vs Virginia, @ Notre Dame, @ Purdue, @ Northwestern, Maryland, @ Illinois, @ Minnesota, @ Michigan State, Illinois
Bad Losses:vs Memphis, Omaha, @ Nebraska
Illinois
Good Wins:vs VCU, vs BYU, Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, @ Northwestern, @ Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan State
Good Losses:vs West Virginia, vs Florida State, @ Maryland, @ Indiana, Maryland, @ Purdue, @ Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Bad Losses:Winthrop, @ Penn State, Penn State, @ Rutgers
Ohio State
Good Wins:Providence, Michigan State, Minnesota, @ Michigan, Wisconsin
Good Losses:@ Virginia, vs UCLA, @ Illinois, Purdue, @ Minnesota, @ Wisconsin, Northwestern, @ Iowa, Maryland, @ Maryland, @ Michigan State, Indiana
Bad Losses: FAU, Nebraska
Missouri Valley
Definitely In
Wichita State
Good Wins:Illinois State
Good Losses:vs Louisville, vs Michigan State, Oklahoma State, @ Illinois State
Bad Losses:None
Still a Chance
Illinois State
Good Wins:Wichita State
Good Losses:@ TCU, @ Wichita State
Bad Losses:@ Murray State, @ Tulsa, vs San Francisco
Pac 12
Definitely In
Oregon
Good Wins:UCLA, USC, California, @ Utah, Arizona, @ USC, Utah, @ California
Good Losses:@ Baylor, @ UCLA
Bad Losses:vs Georgetown, @ Colorado
Arizona
Good Wins:vs Michigan State, vs Texas A&M, @ California, Utah, @ USC, @ UCLA, California, USC
Good Losses:vs Butler, vs Gonzaga, @ Oregon, UCLA
Bad Losses:None
UCLA
Good Wins:vs Texas A&M, @ Kentucky, Michigan, vs Ohio State, California, @ Utah, Oregon, USC, @ Arizona
Good Losses:@ Oregon, Arizona, @ USC
Bad Losses:None
Still a Chance
Utah
Good Wins: USC, California
Good Losses:Butler, @ Xavier, @ Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, @ California, @ Oregon
Bad Losses:vs San Francisco, @ Stanford, @ Oregon State
California
Good Wins:vs Princeton, @ USC, Utah
Good Losses:vs Seton Hall, Virginia, Arizona, @ UCLA, @ Oregon, @ Arizona, Oregon, @ Utah
Bad Losses:vs San Diego State, @ Stanford, @ Colorado
USC
Good Wins:@ Texas A&M, SMU, vs BYU, UCLA
Good Losses:@ Oregon, California, @ Utah, Arizona, Oregon, @ UCLA, @ Arizona
Bad Losses:@ Arizona State
SEC
Definitely In
Kentucky
Good Wins:vs Michigan State, vs North Carolina, Texas A&M, Arkansas, @ Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Georgia, @ Georgia, Florida, Vanderbilt, @ Texas A&M
Good Losses:UCLA, @ Louisville, Kansas, @ Florida
Bad Losses:@ Tennessee
Florida
Good Wins:vs Seton Hall, vs Miami (FL), @ Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, @ Georgia, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Arkansas
Good Losses:vs Gonzaga, vs Duke, @ Florida State, @ South Carolina, Vanderbilt, @ Kentucky, @ Vanderbilt
Bad Losses:None
Probably In
South Carolina
Good Wins:Monmouth, Michigan, vs Syracuse, Vermont, @ Georgia, Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia
Good Losses:vs Seton Hall, Clemson, @ Kentucky, Arkansas, @ Vanderbilt, @ Florida
Bad Losses:@ Memphis, Alabama, @ Ole Miss
Arkansas
Good Wins:UT Arlington, Houston, @ Texas A&M, @ Vanderbilt, @ South Carolina, Texas A&M, Georgia
Good Losses:@ Minnesota, Florida, @ Kentucky, @ Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, @ Florida
Bad Losses:Mississippi State, @ Missouri
Solid Chance
Vanderbilt
Good Wins:@ Florida, Iowa State, @ Texas A&M, @ Arkansas, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Florida
Good Losses:vs Marquette, Bucknell, vs Butler, vs Minnesota, @ Middle Tennessee, @ Dayton, Kentucky, @ Georgia, Arkansas, @ Kentucky
Bad Losses:@ Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, @ Missouri
Still a Chance
Georgia
Good Wins:Vanderbilt
Good Losses:@ Clemson, vs Kansas, Marquette, South Carolina, @ Florida, @ Texas A&M, @ Kentucky, @ South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, @ Arkansas
Bad Losses:@ Oakland, Alabama
Texas A&M
Good Wins:vs Virginia Tech, Georgia
Good Losses: USC, vs UCLA, vs Arizona, @ Kentucky, @ South Carolina, Arkansas, @ West Virginia, Vanderbilt, @ Florida, @ Vanderbilt, @ Arkansas, Kentucky
Bad Losses:vs Tennessee, @ Mississippi State
West Coast
Definitely In
Gonzaga
Good Wins:vs Florida, vs Iowa State, vs Arizona, Saint Mary's, @ BYU, @ Saint Mary's
Good Losses: BYU
Bad Losses:None
Saint Mary's
Good Wins:Nevada, @ Dayton, BYU, @ BYU,
Good Losses:UT Arlington, @ Gonzaga, Gonzaga
Bad Losses:None
Still a Chance
BYU
Good Wins:Princeton, @ Gonzaga
Good Losses:vs USC, vs Illinois, @ Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
Bad Losses:vs Valparaiso, Utah Valley, @ San Diego, @ Santa Clara, @ Pepperdine
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