Friday, December 30, 2016

NFL Rankings - 30 Dec

The Falcons are still at #1 in my rankings with only one week remaining in the season, just ahead of the two teams with the top record so far. In addition to my rankings, I've also included my picks for this season's playoffs, as well as odds of each remaining team making the playoffs and reaching specific seeds. To determine projected margin of victory, take the difference between the two teams' ratings and adjust by 2.67 for home field advantage:





Rec
ProjRec


TW
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
MOV
SOS
Seed
1
1
Atlanta
-8.83
10
5
11
5
2
14
N2
2
2
New England
-8.14
13
2
14
2
1
32
A1
3
3
Dallas
-8.13
13
2
14
2
3
25
N1
4
4
Pittsburgh
-6.08
10
5
11
5
4
6
A3
5
6
Kansas City
-5.83
11
4
12
4
5
10
A2
6
5
Oakland
-5.27
12
3
12
4
7
3
A5
7
10
Baltimore
-2.94
8
7
8
8
9
21

8
7
Denver
-2.84
8
7
9
7
16
1

9
9
Green Bay
-2.77
9
6
10
6
8
19
N4
10
8
Seattle
-2.68
9.5
5.5
10.5
5.5
6
30
N3
11
19
Washington
-2.65
8.5
6.5
9.5
6.5
11
9
N6
12
11
Philadelphia
-2.21
6
9
6
10
17
2

13
16
NY Giants
-1.52
10
5
10
6
15
17
N5
14
14
New Orleans
-1.51
7
8
7
9
12
18

15
13
Buffalo
-1.28
7
8
8
8
10
28

16
15
Tampa Bay
-1.06
8
7
9
7
22
5

17
17
Indianapolis
-0.81
7
8
8
8
13
23

18
20
Cincinnati
-0.62
5.5
9.5
6.5
9.5
19
11

19
12
San Diego
-0.29
5
10
5
11
23
8

20
21
Minnesota
0.37
7
8
8
8
24
13

21
24
Arizona
0.56
6.5
8.5
7.5
8.5
18
29

22
23
Carolina
0.75
6
9
6
10
25
7

23
18
Tennessee
0.77
8
7
9
7
20
27

24
22
Detroit
0.78
9
6
9
7
21
24

25
25
Miami
1.23
10
5
10
6
14
31
A6
26
26
Houston
2.29
9
6
9
7
26
15
A4
27
28
Jacksonville
4.31
3
12
3
13
27
12

28
27
Chicago
6.15
3
12
3
13
28
22

29
29
Los Angeles
9.06
4
11
4
12
29
26

30
30
NY Jets
9.95
4
11
4
12
30
16

31
32
Cleveland
11
1
14
1
15
32
4

32
31
San Francisco
11.4
2
13
2
14
31
20


Playoff Picks

Wild Card

(3) Steelers over (6) Dolphins
(5) Raiders over (4) Texans
(6) Redskins over (3) Seahawks
(5) Giants over (4) Packers

Divisional

(1) Patriots over (5) Raiders
(3) Steelers over (2) Chiefs
(1) Cowboys over (6) Redskins
(2) Falcons over (5) Giants

Conference Championships

(1) Patriots over (3) Steelers
(2) Falcons over (1) Cowboys

Super Bowl

(2) Falcons over (1) Patriots



Playoff Odds

AFC

#1

New England - 83.3% (win or OAK loss)
Oakland - 16.7% (win and NE loss)

#2

New England - 16.7% (loss and OAK win)
Oakland - 54.5% (win and NE win or loss and KC loss)
Kansas City - 28.8% (win and OAK loss)

#3

Pittsburgh - 100%

#4

Houston - 100%

#5

Oakland - 28.8% (loss and KC win)
Kansas City - 57.7% (OAK and KC win or KC and MIA loss)
Miami - 14.5% (win and KC loss)

#6

Kansas City - 14.5 % (loss and MIA win)
Miami - 85.5% - (loss or KC win)

NFC

#1

Dallas - 100%

#2

Atlanta - 76.9% (win or SEA and DET loss)
Seattle - 20.2% (win and ATL loss)
Detroit - 2.9% (win and ATL and SEA loss)

#3

Atlanta - 10.5% (loss and SEA and DET loss)
Seattle - 56.8% (win and ATL win)
Detroit - 20.7% (win and ATL or SEA loss)
Green Bay - 12.0% (win and SEA loss)

#4

Atlanta - 12.6% (loss and DET and SEA win)
Seattle - 23.0% (loss)
Detroit - 27.1% (tie or win and SEA and ATL win)
Green Bay - 37.3% (win and SEA win)

#5

NY Giants - 100%

#6

Detroit - 21.2% (loss and WAS loss)
Green Bay - 19.5% (tie or loss and WAS loss)
Washington - 59.3% (win and DET-GB not a tie or tie and GB loss and TB loss)
Tampa Bay - 0.00000001% (win and GB loss and WAS tie and TEN, IND, DAL and SF win)

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