The NBA Playoffs start tomorrow, and there are only a few teams with a realistic chance of actually winning the title, with the record-setting Warriors and Spurs in the West and juggernaut LeBron in the East looking for his 6th straight Finals appearance. I've gone through every single possible matchup, taking into account home court advantage, possible series length, momentum from the regular season, and overall performance this year to determine each team's odds of advancing through each round and eventually winning the title, along with my own picks for each series. Here are each team's odds:
Odds of Winning First Round
1. Spurs - 98.3%
2. Warriors - 97.5%
3. Thunder - 93.6%
4. Cavaliers - 87.3%
5. Clippers - 75.5%
6. Raptors - 74.0%
7. Hawks - 62.6%
8. Hornets - 55.2%
9. Heat - 44.8%
10. Celtics - 37.4%
11. Pacers - 26.0%
12. Trail Blazers - 24.5%
13. Pistons - 12.7%
14. Mavericks - 6.4%
15. Rockets - 2.5%
16. Grizzlies - 1.7%
Odds of Making Conference Finals
1. Warriors - 89.2%
2. Spurs - 74.5%
3. Cavaliers - 60.4%
4. Raptors - 51.5%
5. Thunder - 25.3%
6. Hawks - 24.9%
7. Hornets - 22.4%
8. Heat - 15.0%
9. Celtics - 11.6%
10. Pacers - 11.1%
11. Clippers - 9.1%
12. Pistons - 3.1%
13. Trail Blazers - 1.0%
14. Rockets - 0.7%
15. Mavericks - 0.2%
16. Grizzlies - 0.1%
Odds of Making NBA Finals
1. Warriors - 52.8%
2. Cavaliers - 42.4%
3. Spurs - 38.0%
4. Raptors - 24.1%
5. Hawks - 13.6%
6. Thunder - 7.7%
7. Hornets - 7.1%
8. Celtics - 5.2%
9. Heat - 4.0%
10. Pacers - 2.7%
11. Clippers - 1.3%
12. Pistons - 0.8%
13. Trail Blazers - 0.1%
Odds of Winning Championship
1. Warriors - 47.0%
2. Spurs - 33.6%
3. Cavaliers - 7.8%
4. Thunder - 5.4%
5. Raptors - 3.0%
6. Hawks - 1.4%
7. Clippers - 0.7%
8. Hornets - 0.5%
9. Celtics - 0.3%
10. Heat - 0.2%
11. Pacers - 0.1%
My Picks
First Round
(1) Cavaliers over (8) Pistons in 5
(2) Raptors over (7) Pacers in 6
(6) Hornets over (3) Heat in 7
(4) Hawks over (5) Celtics in 6
(1) Warriors over (8) Rockets in 4
(2) Spurs over (7) Grizzlies in 4
(3) Thunder over (6) Mavericks in 5
(4) Clippers over (5) Trail Blazers in 6
Second Round
(1) Cavaliers over (4) Hawks in 6
(2) Raptors over (6) Hornets in 6
(1) Warriors over (4) Clippers in 5
(2) Spurs over (3) Thunder in 6
Conference Finals
(1) Cavaliers over (2) Raptors in 6
(1) Warriors over (2) Spurs in 7
NBA Finals
(1) Warriors over (1) Cavaliers in 5
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