After one weekend, the field has been trimmed from 68 teams to 16, so it's time to review what has happened so far and see how the remaining teams' odds have changed in the past week.
Best Teams Left Out
The top 5 teams on my list of teams that should have made the tournament were among the final 8 teams alive in this season's NIT, so it looks like they were pretty accurate.
Least Deserving At Large Teams
Of the 6 teams on this list, 5 lost their first game, 3 in upsets, and the other fell in their second game, so none of the undeserving teams is still alive in the tourney.
Most Underseeded Teams
5 of the teams on this list pulled off at least one upset, with Gonzaga taking two and Stephen F Austin coming extremely close to a second. There were also several that lost very close games, including Cincinnati's buzzer-beater that was too late and Purdue's double OT loss.
Most Overseeded Teams
Of the 10 teams on this list, only two remain, and both were very lucky to avoid upsets, Oregon and Notre Dame. 6 of the teams lost in the first round, 5 in upsets, and 2 more lost in the second round to lower seeds, meaning 7 of the 10 have been upset so far, and the other 2 could be upset before tomorrow.
Number of First Round Upsets
My prediction was 9.2, and there ended up being 13, so it was actually above the projected range this year, as opposed to last year, when there were only 5.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
Of the 10 I showed as most likely to happen, 7 actually happened, and another was milliseconds from happening, and the other two required huge comebacks to avoid happening, so overall this was very accurate.
Most Likely #15 to Pull an Upset
This is where I was completely wrong. I said that there was a very good chance at seeing a 15-seed win, but I also said that Michigan State would not be the 2-seed to go down. Ouch.
Most Likely Cinderellas
The two lower seeds that are still alive were both on my list, with Gonzaga at the very top and Syracuse at the bottom.
Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
My projection was 2.4, so this was right on, with Syracuse and Gonzaga still dancing.
#1 Seeds in the Final Four
I originally projected 1.0, but with all four still alive, the number has risen to 1.5.
Odds of #1 Seed Winning the Tournament
The odds of this happening have risen from 33.4% to 46.9% after the opening weekend.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
10 of the actual teams were in my top 16, with 3 more among the next five below them, with Syracuse, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame as the biggest surprises.
Most Likely Elite Eight Teams
(1) Kansas - 72.0%
(1) Virginia - 64.9%
(2) Villanova - 60.7%
(11) Gonzaga - 59.6%
(1) North Carolina - 56.8%
(4) Duke - 55.6%
(2) Oklahoma - 52.8%
(6) Notre Dame - 51.0%
Most Likely Final Four Teams
(1) Virginia - 43.5% (+18.9)
(1) North Carolina - 42.1% (+14.2)
(1) Kansas - 41.7% (+4.2)
(2) Villanova - 31.9% (+12.4)
(2) Oklahoma - 29.3% (+5.4)
(5) Indiana - 29.3% (+18.5)
(4) Duke - 26.9% (+12.0)
(11) Gonzaga - 25.0% (+17.6)
(3) Texas A&M - 24.9% (+7.7)
(1) Oregon - 18.9% (+5.7)
(4) Iowa State - 18.4% (+11.1)
Most Likely Champions
(1) Kansas - 16.7% (+1.4)
(1) Virginia - 14.1% (+6.4)
(1) North Carolina - 13.3% (+4.7)
(2) Villanova - 11.4% (+5.1)
(5) Indiana - 7.2% (+4.1)
(2) Oklahoma - 6.4% (+0.9)
(4) Duke - 5.1% (+2.1)
(3) Texas A&M - 4.8% (+1.5)
(11) Gonzaga - 4.8% (+3.4)
(3) Miami - 4.0% (+1.4)
Overall Bracket
I got 23 out of 32 right in the first round, including 7 of the 10 upsets I selected, and I correctly picked 10 of the Sweet 16. I did lose both West Virginia, my champion, and Michigan State, a Final Four team, in the first round, so my overall bracket has been damaged. Here is my updated prediction from this point forward:
Elite Eight
(1) Kansas
(2) Villanova
(4) Duke
(3) Texas A&M
(1) North Carolina
(7) Wisconsin
(1) Virginia
(11) Gonzaga
Final Four
(2) Villanova
(4) Duke
(1) North Carolina
(1) Virginia
3 ACC teams reach the final weekend.
Championship
(2) Villanova
(1) Virginia
Champs
(2) Villanova
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