The Tournament is finally here, and it is much more wide open than it has been in years, without a clear-cut favorite to win it all, unlike last year, when the odds of Kentucky, Wisconsin, or Duke winning it all was over 50% at this point. Every single game this season has been accounted for, and every potential matchup in the next 3 weeks has been analyzed, and I've broken it all down for you here to help you fill out a winning bracket.
Best Teams Left Out
Teams ordered by final ranking using my formula.
7. Louisville (ineligible)
14. SMU (ineligible)
34. Florida
36. Saint Mary's
37. BYU
40. Valparaiso
46. Creighton
47. Florida State
For the third year in a row, there were 6 teams snubbed according to my formula. Last year's NIT champ, Stanford, was among the snubs I listed, so these teams should have a good shot at the consolation prize this year.
Least Deserving At-Large Teams
Seed in parentheses.
53. Colorado (8)
54. Dayton (7)
60. Providence (9)
63. Tulsa (11)
66. Oregon State (7)
95. Temple (10)
Colorado at Dayton were close enough that I don't have a huge problem with them making it, and the next three are not bad, but could easily have been replaced with a better team from above. Temple is possibly the worst at-large team I have ever seen make the tourney, so don't plan on seeing them advance very far. Last year, 5 of the 6 teams on this list were out on the opening weekend of the tournament, three in the first game in which they could have been eliminated.
Most Underseeded Teams
These teams were seeded lower than they should have been, and that makes these teams good candidates to pull off early upsets.
1. Vanderbilt (11)
2. Gonzaga (11)
3. Stephen F Austin (14)
4. Wichita State (11)
5. Connecticut (9)
6. Purdue (5)
7. Michigan (11)
8. VCU (10)
9. Pittsburgh (10)
10. Cincinnati (9)
The teams on this list last year pulled off 7 total upsets, including 14-seed Georgia State's upset of Baylor in the first round and Michigan State's run to the Final Four from the 7-seed.
Most Overseeded Teams
These teams were seeded far too high, and are more likely to be the victims of early upsets
1. Oregon (1)
2. Oregon State (7)
3. Dayton (7)
4. California (4)
5. Notre Dame (6)
6. Colorado (8)
7. Temple (10)
8. Xavier (2)
9. Utah (3)
10. Texas (6)
You'll notice that there are 5 Pac 12 teams on this list. It is obvious that the committee thought a lot more of the Pac 12 than the actual data does. Of the 10 teams on this list last year, 5 were upset in the first two rounds, including #2 Kansas, #3 Baylor, #4 Maryland, and #4 Georgetown. The other 5 lost to higher seeds within the first two rounds, meaning all ten failed to reach the Sweet 16.
There are 3 first-round upsets of over vs. under-seeded teams, including Colorado vs. Connecticut, Oregon State vs. VCU, and Notre Dame vs. Michigan, along with a few possible in the second round, including Oregon vs. Cincinnati, Utah vs. Gonzaga, and Xavier vs. Pittsburgh. Upset alert!
Number of First-Round Upsets
9.2
Last year I predicted 8.6, and there were only 5, so it was a little below the expected range. This year it should be a little higher, somewhere between 8 and 11.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
(9) Connecticut over (8) Colorado - 62.6%
(10) VCU over (7) Oregon State - 60.7%
(9) Cincinnati over (8) Saint Joseph's - 59.4%
(9) Butler over (8) Texas Tech - 58.7%
(11) Gonzaga over (6) Seton Hall - 56.1%
(10) Pittsburgh over (7) Wisconsin - 55.0%
(10) Syracuse over (7) Dayton - 54.6%
(11) Vanderbilt/Wichita State over (6) Arizona - 45.9%
(9) Providence over (8) USC - 45.7%
(11) Michigan/Tulsa over (6) Notre Dame - 45.5%
3 of the 5 upsets that happened last year were on my list, with 14-seeds Georgia State and UAB as the surprises.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull an Upset
(15) Weber State over (2) Xavier - 16.8%
(15) UNC Asheville over (2) Villanova - 11.7%
(15) Cal State Bakersfield over (2) Oklahoma - 10.9%
There is a 40% chance that a #2 seed will lose its first game, with only Michigan State completely immune, although each of these upsets would still be a long shot.
Most Likely Cinderellas
These are the lower seeds most likely to reach the Sweet 16
(11) Gonzaga - 31.3%
(9) Cincinnati - 28.8%
(10) Pittsburgh - 26.3%
(11) Vanderbilt/Wichita State - 23.0%
(10) VCU - 22.2%
(9) Butler - 18.9%
(9) Connecticut - 17.1%
(12) Yale - 14.1%
(11) Michigan/Tulsa - 12.3%
(10) Syracuse - 12.0%
Last year's lone Cinderella, UCLA, was #5 on this list last year with a 16.4% change of reaching the Sweet 16. The odds are even higher this year that we'll see multiple teams get there from this list.
Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
2.4
Last year I predicted 2.2, so having just UCLA meant it came in low, but the odds are a little higher this year of hitting 2 or 3.
#1 Seeds in the Final Four
1.0
Last year's number was 1.7, and 3 ended up getting there, with only Michigan State getting there without a top seed. There will likely be at least one again this year, but the chances of seeing 3 again is pretty low.
Odds of #1 Seed Winning the Tournament
33.4%
That's not bad, but much lower than last season's 59.5%, which ended up being true, with Duke taking it all.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
(2) Michigan State - 79.8%
(1) North Carolina - 77.6%
(1) Kansas - 76.9%
(1) Virginia - 71.3%
(2) Oklahoma - 64.0%
(2) Villanova - 60.5%
(3) West Virginia - 59.1%
(3) Texas A&M - 56.2%
(1) Oregon - 55.1%
(2) Xavier - 50.1%
(5) Purdue - 48.7%
(4) Duke - 47.5%
(4) Kentucky - 47.2%
(3) Miami - 46.1%
(3) Utah - 42.5%
(5) Indiana - 42.0%
(5) Maryland - 40.3%
(4) California - 38.3%
(4) Iowa State - 35.8%
(7) Iowa - 31.8%
(11) Gonzaga - 31.3%
(5) Baylor - 31.3%
(6) Texas - 30.6%
Last year 12 of the Sweet 16 were among the 16 most likely on my list, so don't pick too many of these teams to lose early, although we won't see all of them get through.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
(1) Kansas - 37.5%
(2) Michigan State - 34.9%
(1) North Carolina - 27.9%
(1) Virginia - 24.6%
(2) Oklahoma - 23.9%
(3) West Virginia - 23.1%
(2) Villanova - 19.5%
(3) Texas A&M - 17.2%
(4) Duke - 14.9%
(4) Kentucky - 13.9%
(1) Oregon - 13.2%
(5) Purdue - 12.5%
(5) Indiana - 10.8%
(2) Xavier - 10.3%
(3) Miami - 10.2%
Last season the top 3 on my list all made the Final Four. It's not possible for the top 4 on this list to all get there, since Michigan State and Virginia are in the same region, but there are several strong candidates to reach the final weekend.
Most Likely Champions
(1) Kansas - 15.3%
(2) Michigan State - 12.6%
(1) North Carolina - 8.6%
(1) Virginia - 7.7%
(3) West Virginia - 7.4%
(2) Villanova - 6.3%
(2) Oklahoma - 5.5%
(4) Kentucky - 3.6%
(3) Texas A&M - 3.3%
(5) Purdue - 3.2%
Last year, Kentucky came in with a 27.0% chance of winning the title, and eventual champion Duke at 11.5%. The eventual champion has been in the top 3 on my list in 3 of the past 4 seasons.
Overall Bracket
Upset picks are in italics.
First Round Winners
(1) Kansas
(9) Connecticut
(5) Maryland
(4) California
(11) Vanderbilt/Wichita State
(3) Miami
(7) Iowa
(2) Villanova
(1) Oregon
(9) Cincinnati
(5) Baylor
(4) Duke
(6) Texas
(3) Texas A&M
(10) VCU
(2) Oklahoma
(1) North Carolina
(9) Providence
(5) Indiana
(4) Kentucky
(11) Michigan/Tulsa
(3) West Virginia
(10) Pittsburgh
(2) Xavier
(1) Virginia
(9) Butler
(5) Purdue
(4) Iowa State
(11) Gonzaga
(3) Utah
(10) Syracuse
(2) Michigan State
That's 10 upsets if you're keeping track.
Sweet 16
(1) Kansas
(5) Maryland
(11) Vanderbilt/Wichita State
(2) Villanova
(9) Cincinnati
(4) Duke
(3) Texas A&M
(2) Oklahoma
(1) North Carolina
(5) Indiana
(3) West Virginia
(2) Xavier
(1) Virginia
(5) Purdue
(11) Gonzaga
(2) Michigan State
2 double-digit seeds and the first #1 to drop.
Elite Eight
(1) Kansas
(2) Villanova
(4) Duke
(3) Texas A&M
(1) North Carolina
(3) West Virginia
(5) Purdue
(2) Michigan State
2 teams from the ACC, Big 12, and Big 10, along with one each from the SEC and Big East, and none from the Pac 12
Final Four
(1) Kansas
(4) Duke
(3) West Virginia
(2) Michigan State
Championship
(1) Kansas
(3) West Virginia
Champion
(3) West Virginia
The Mountaineers beat the Jayhawks in a rematch of the Big 12 title game.
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