After a wild Wild Card Weekend, there are only 8 teams left in the NFL playoffs, with all four lower seeds advancing last week. Of the remaining starters, 4 were #1 overall draft picks (Manning, Smith, Palmer, and Newton), and the other 4 have won Super Bowls (Wilson, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Rodgers), with Manning having done both. Here are my updated odds of each team advancing through each remaining round:
Odds of Making Conference Championship
1. Cardinals - 71.8% (-3.9)
2. Chiefs - 57.5% (+22.3)
3. Seahawks - 54.8% (+23.5)
4. Steelers - 52.3% (+31.7)
5. Broncos - 47.7% (-4.5)
6. Panthers - 45.2% (-11.6)
7. Patriots - 42.5% (-7.1)
8. Packers - 28.2% (+10.9)
All 4 teams that didn't play last week saw their odds slip slightly due to the toughest teams getting through last week. Carolina took the biggest hit because Seattle got through and will face them this weekend, the worst case for the overall top seed.
Odds of Making Super Bowl
1. Cardinals - 39.8% (-3.2)
2. Chiefs - 33.4% (+16.1)
3. Seahawks - 26.4% (+11.2)
4. Steelers - 24.0% (+13.8)
5. Broncos - 23.8% (-2.9)
6. Panthers - 22.5% (-7.1)
7. Patriots - 18.8% (-5.0)
8. Packers - 11.2% (+5.4)
Odds of Winning Super Bowl
1. Cardinals - 23.7% (-2.7)
2. Chiefs - 17.1% (+8.7)
3. Seahawks - 15.8% (+6.4)
4. Steelers - 11.4% (+6.5)
5. Panthers - 10.9% (-4.6)
6. Broncos - 9.2% (-1.3)
7. Patriots - 7.0% (-2.6)
8. Packers - 4.9% (+2.4)
My Updated Picks
Divisional Round
(1) Broncos over (6) Steelers
(5) Chiefs over (2) Patriots
(6) Seahawks over (1) Panthers
(2) Cardinals over (5) Packers
Conference Championships
(5) Chiefs over (1) Broncos
(2) Cardinals over (6) Seahawks
Super Bowl
(2) Cardinals over (5) Chiefs
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