After one week of playoff action, 5 underdogs are leading 2-1, which has shaken up the odds a bit. No longer are the Spurs the big favorite after being blown out by Dallas in game 2 at home, and the Pacers may not even get out of the first round. Here are each team's updated odds of advancing through each playoff round:
Odds of Winning First Round
1. Heat - 88.4% (+19.5)
2. Clippers - 87.6% (+16.9)
3. Wizards - 70.0% (+29.4)
4. Spurs - 66.6% (-21.0)
5. Hawks - 65.7% (+30.2)
6. Trail Blazers - 64.1% (+30.2)
7. Grizzlies - 58.0% (+28.2)
8. Nets - 53.5% (+34.1)
9. Raptors - 46.5% (-34.1)
10. Thunder - 42.0% (-28.2)
11. Rockets - 35.9% (-30.2)
12. Pacers - 34.3% (-30.2)
13. Mavericks - 33.4% (+21.0)
14. Bulls - 30.0% (-29.4)
15. Warriors - 12.4% (-16.9)
16. Bobcats - 11.6% (-19.5)
The only team that has yet to lose a game this postseason is the Miami Heat, who haven't lost a playoff series since the 2011 Finals. The Clippers lost a home game, but were the only team to bounce back and win a road game to retake home court so far this postseason.
Odds of Making Conference Finals
1. Clippers - 68.5% (+21.1)
2. Heat - 60.6% (+20.4)
3. Spurs - 51.1% (-19.5)
4. Wizards - 50.7% (+23.7)
5. Bulls - 21.6% (-20.8)
6. Raptors - 20.9% (-22.6)
7. Trail Blazers - 20.1% (+13.6)
8. Hawks - 15.6% (+8.4)
9. Thunder - 15.3% (-15.8)
10. Mavericks - 15.2% (+10.8)
11. Rockets - 13.6% (-4.9)
12. Nets - 13.4% (+8.3)
13. Pacers - 12.2% (-11.2)
14. Grizzlies - 10.1% (+3.5)
15. Warriors - 6.1% (-8.7)
16. Bobcats - 5.1% (-6.1)
Three of the 4 most likely conference finalists are teams I picked to be there when the playoffs started last week, with Miami in the spot I had given to Toronto.
Odds of Making NBA Finals
1. Clippers - 47.3% (+23.0)
2. Heat - 39.0% (+14.1)
3. Spurs - 27.2% (-20.6)
4. Wizards - 23.8% (+12.2)
5. Raptors - 12.6% (-14.6)
6. Bulls - 10.0% (-10.4)
7. Thunder - 7.6% (-4.2)
8. Trail Blazers - 4.7% (+3.0)
9. Nets - 4.6% (+3.1)
10. Pacers - 4.3% (-4.0)
11. Rockets - 4.0% (-2.9)
12. Hawks - 3.7% (+2.3)
13. Mavericks - 3.6% (+2.6)
14. Grizzlies - 3.3% (+1.8)
15. Warriors - 2.3% (-2.7)
16. Bobcats - 2.1% (-2.6)
The Clippers, my pre-playoff pick, are now the most likely team to represent the West in the Finals, displacing the Spurs, who are still a major threat as well. Miami has replaced Toronto as the likely East rep, which would put them in the Finals for the 4th straight season with LeBron James.
Odds of Winning NBA Championship
1. Clippers - 42.4% (+21.4)
2. Spurs - 23.0% (-19.8)
3. Heat - 8.8% (+3.9)
4. Thunder - 5.7% (-3.3)
5. Wizards - 4.1% (+2.5)
6. Trail Blazers - 2.8% (+1.8)
7. Rockets - 2.6% (-2.2)
8. Raptors - 2.3% (-2.9)
9. Mavericks - 2.2% (+2.2)
10. Grizzlies - 1.9% (+1.9)
11. Bulls - 1.7% (-1.8)
12. Warriors - 1.4% (-2.2)
The West's odds of winning the title dropped slightly to 82.0%, with Miami as the only reason for any real hope back East.
Updated Picks
Upset picks are in italics.
These picks are not meant to replace my original picks, which I still stand by, but if I had not picked until this point, these would be my choices for the remainder of the playoffs.
First Round
Hawks over Pacers in 6
Heat over Bobcats in 4
Raptors over Nets in 7
Wizards over Bulls in 6
Spurs over Mavericks in 6
Thunder over Grizzlies in 7
Clippers over Warriors in 5
Trail Blazers over Rockets in 6
I am only switching 2 choices here, taking Portland over Houston after they won 2 road games to open the series, taking away the home court advantage. I also have the Pacers losing a round earlier than I originally thought, because they have not pulled it back together for the playoffs.
Second Round
Wizards over Hawks in 5
Raptors over Heat in 7
Spurs over Trail Blazers in 5
Clippers over Thunder in 6
I'm keeping the same 4 winners in this round, with the Wizards no longer an upset now that I'm projecting them to have home court in round 2.
Conference Finals
Wizards over Raptors in 6
Spurs over Clippers in 6
I have switched both picks here, with Toronto falling after having no rest in the first two rounds, while the Spurs will have the benefit of rest after dispatching the Blazers early.
NBA Finals
Spurs over Wizards in 4
Whichever team wins the West will have no trouble with Washington, and right now that looks like the Spurs, who have the experience that the Wizards and Clippers lack.
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