NFL Playoff Odds

The playoffs are here, starting this afternoon with Cincinnati and Houston, which should be the closest game of the weekend and a great way to start the march to the Super Bowl. I have crunched the numbers from every game this season, taking everything into account, including home field, momentum, margin of victory, and strength of schedule, as well as all potential playoff matchups, to determine which teams are most likely to advance through each round of the playoffs, along with my picks for each round. I'll start off with my final rankings of the regular season, including only the teams that are still alive with ESPN's Power Rankings in parentheses.

TW. (LW) Team (Record) Result (ESPN)
1. (1) Seattle (11-5) W (5)

2. (2) New England (12-4) W (4)

3. (4) Denver (13-3) W (1)
4. (3) San Francisco (11-4-1) W (3)

5. (5) Green Bay (11-5) L (6)

6. (6) Atlanta (13-3) L (2)

8. (8) Minnesota (10-6) W (12)

10. (10) Washington (10-6) W (8)
11. (11) Cincinnati (10-6) W (11)
13. (12) Baltimore (10-6) L (10)

16. (15) Houston (12-4) L (9)

24. (26) Indianapolis (11-5) W (7)

Best Teams that Missed Out

7. (7) Chicago (10-6) W (13)
9. (9) NY Giants (9-7) W (14)
12. (14) Carolina (7-9) W (18)
14. (13) New Orleans (7-9) L (19)
15. (17) Saint Louis (7-8-1) L (16)

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Baltimore - 86.0%
2. Seattle - 78.1%
3. Green Bay - 71.8%
4. Houston - 54.2%
5. Cincinnati - 45.8%

Only one of this weekend's games looks like it should be pretty close, especially since Houston has been ice cold while Cincinnati has been red-hot, but the Texans have home field advantage and a lot more experience, so the game could go either way. I'm taking Houston by a single point in this one.

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. New England - 95.3%
2. Denver - 87.5%
3. San Francisco - 61.3%
4. Seattle - 50.6%
5. Atlanta - 47.9%
6. Green Bay - 24.9%
7. Minnesota - 9.7%
8. Baltimore - 9.5%
9. Cincinnati - 6.4%
10. Washington - 5.6%

The numbers say that the AFC Championship Game contenders are pretty much decided already, with 83% odds that Denver and New England will face each other in that game. There is still a slight chance that the NFC North teams could sneak in, but the odds of seeing an AFC South team that deep in the playoffs is nearly zero. The NFC is more wide-open, but there is a pretty good chance (31%) that the NFC East could have two representatives in that game. Don't count out Green Bay, who's been there recently, or Atlanta, who has the benefit of home field advantage.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Denver - 51.1%
2. New England - 46.9%
3. Seattle - 32.3%
4. San Francisco - 31.7%
5. Atlanta - 24.8%
6. Green Bay - 11.3%
7. Minnesota - 2.0%
8. Washington - 1.34%
9. Baltimore - 1.33%

The two most likely Super Bowl matchups feature two teams from the West, which is the opposite of last year, when both teams came from the Northeast. The odds are 98% that either Denver or New England will be in the Super Bowl, so there's not much intrigue in the AFC until the Conference Title Game.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Denver - 25.53%
2. New England - 25.50%
3. Seattle - 20.3%
4. San Francisco - 14.1%
5. Atlanta - 8.6%
6. Green Bay - 4.6%

The top three teams are all pretty solid picks to win the Super Bowl, but the next three should not be discounted. The odds of any of the other 6 teams winning the Super Bowl is only 1.4%, so they aren't even worth looking at, unless you take into account that I didn't give New York much chance of winning it all last year, especially against my original pick, the New England Patriots.

Odds of Recent Super Bowl Rematch

Zero. There is no chance of a rematch of any Super Bowl from the last 13 years, because either one team or both from each of the last 13 Super Bowls did not make the playoffs this year. The most recent Super Bowl which could result in a rematch this year is Super Bowl XXXIII (1999), when Denver beat Atlanta 34-19 in John Elway's last game. Ironically, those just happen to be the two top seeds in this year's playoffs, and Denver once again has one of the greatest all-time QB's, aged 35 and over, looking for his second Super Bowl title.

Super Matchup Odds

Harbaugh Bowl - Baltimore vs. San Francisco - 0.4%
Bird Bowl - Baltimore vs. Seattle or Atlanta - 0.8%
Purple Bowl - Baltimore vs. Minnesota - 0.03%
Settler Bowl - New England vs. San Francisco - 14.9%
Impossible Bowl (aka ROY Bowl)- Indianapolis vs. Washington - 0.0%
Super Bowl MVP Bowl - New England, Denver, or Baltimore vs. Green Bay - 11.2%
First-Time Winners Bowl - Houston or Cincinnati vs. Minnesota, Atlanta, or Seattle - 0.6%
Western Bowl - Denver vs. Seattle or San Francisco - 32.7%
Favorite Bowl (XXXIII Rematch) - Denver vs. Atlanta - 12.7%
Eastern Bowl (aka Offense Bowl) - New England vs. Washington - 0.6%
Defense Bowl (Most likely) - Seattle vs. Denver - 16.5%
Offense vs. Defense Bowl - Seattle vs. New England - 15.1%

Super Winner Odds

Former Super MVP - 56.0%
First-time Winner - 29.6%
Rookie QB - 20.6%
Top 5 defense - 68.4%
Top 5 offense - 56.0%

Playoff Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Cincinnati at Houston - Texans by 1
Minnesota at Green Bay - Packers by 7
Indianapolis at Baltimore - Ravens by 11
Seattle at Washington - Seahawks by 9

Second Round

Broncos over Ravens
Patriots over Texans
49ers over Packers
Seahawks over Falcons

Conference Championships

Broncos over Patriots
Seahawks over 49ers

Super Bowl

Seahawks over Broncos

That's right. I'm picking a team with a rookie quarterback that has never won the Super Bowl to win 3 road games before upsetting one of the greatest QB's of all-time in the Super Bowl. Far-fetched? We'll see.

NBA

Boston at Atlanta - Hawks by 7
New York at Orlando - Knicks by 7
Milwaukee at Indiana - Pacers by 5
Sacramento at Brooklyn - Nets by 5
Houston at Cleveland - Rockets by 7
Portland at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 5
New Orleans at Dallas - Mavericks by 3
Philadelphia at San Antonio - Spurs by 15
Utah at Denver - Nuggets by 7
Golden State at LA Clippers - Clippers by 8

College Basketball

Wake Forest at (1) Duke - Blue Devils by 28
Utah at (3) Arizona - Wildcats by 22
(8) Ohio State at (11) Illinois - Buckeyes by 5
(10) Gonzaga at Santa Clara - Bulldogs by 4
Bucknell at (12) Missouri - Tigers by 8
Saint John's at (14) Cincinnati - Bearcats by 19
(15) Georgetown at Marquette - Golden Eagles by 5
Indiana State at (16) Creighton - Bluejays by 17
New Orleans at (17) Butler - Bulldogs by 35
Purdue at (18) Michigan State - Spartans by 15
Seton Hall at (21) Notre Dame - Fighting Irish by 10
(22) Oklahoma State at (25) Kansas State - Cowboys by 3
(23) North Carolina State at Boston College - Wolfpack by 4
(24) Pittsburgh at Rutgers - Panthers by 4
Lehigh at VCU - Rams by 17
Belmont at Tennessee Tech - Bruins by 18
Saint Bonaventure at Colorado State - Rams by 16
Texas at Baylor - Bears by 14

Prediction Results

NFL: 12-4 (.750) 161-94 overall (.631)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 23-25 overall (.479)
NBA: 7-4 (.636) 334-153 overall (.686)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 62-38 overall (.620)
College Basketball: 1-0 (1.000) 381-72 overall (.841)