Monday, January 14, 2013

College Basketball Rankings - 14 Jan

All 4 undefeated teams went down this week, two of them after I predicted they would fall, namely Michigan to Ohio State and Arizona to Oregon. My #1 team, meanwhile, remained strong even with a difficult schedule, which kept them in the top spot for the 4th consecutive week. Two new teams joined the top 10, replacing Gonzaga and Kentucky, the Bulldogs slipping due to other teams' success and the Wildcats due to an unexpected loss. Here is my complete current top 25, with teams grouped by similar level of performance and AP ranking in parentheses.

TW. (LW) Team (Week) Overall (AP)
1. (1) Indiana (2-0) 15-1 (2)
2. (6) Florida (2-0) 12-2 (10)

3. (2) Duke (1-1) 15-1 (3)
4. (4) Michigan (1-1) 16-1 (5)

5. (3) Syracuse (2-0) 16-1 (6)
6. (5) Louisville (2-0) 15-1 (1)
7. (12) Minnesota (1-1) 15-2 (9)

8. (8) VCU (2-0) 14-3 (22)
9. (11) Creighton (2-0) 16-1 (12)

10. (7) Kansas (2-0) 14-1 (4)
11. (9) Gonzaga (1-0) 16-1 (8)

12. (13) Ohio State (2-0) 13-3 (11)
13. (19) Ole Miss (2-0) 13-2 (29)
14. (17) Belmont (2-0) 13-4 (NR)
15. (18) Pittsburgh (1-1) 13-4 (36)

16. (14) Arizona (1-1) 15-1 (7)

17. (NR) Wisconsin (1-0) 12-4 (31)
18. (22) Miami (2-0) 12-3 (32)
19. (20) Cincinnati (1-1) 14-3 (26)
20. (10) Kentucky (1-1) 10-5 (NR)
21. (NR) Iowa State (1-1) 11-4 (NR)
22. (23) Michigan State (2-0) 14-3 (18)
23. (NR) BYU (2-0) 14-4 (NR)
24. (24) Notre Dame (1-1) 14-2 (20)
25. (21) Bucknell (1-0) 14-3 (NR)

Dropped Out

(15) Oklahoma State (1-1) 11-4 (NR)
(25) Colorado State (0-1) 13-3 (NR)
(16) Wichita State (1-1) 15-2 (34)

Ranked Teams by Conference

Big 10 - 6
Big East - 5
SEC - 3
ACC - 2
Big 12 - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Pac 12 - 1
OVC - 1
Pat - 1

With all of the high-ranking teams that fell this week, somebody had to move up, but for some reason the national voters ignored the Florida Gators, probably because they have already lost twice. This week they destroyed LSU and Georgia, and while the SEC is pretty weak overall, the Gators are a quality team, and one of their losses came against the Arizona Wildcats, who were undefeated up until this week. This week they host Missouri, the only other SEC team currently ranked, so maybe a huge win will earn them a little more respect.

Minnesota also dropped in the polls this week due to a loss, but when you consider that they lost by only 8 points on the road against the best team in the country, they shouldn't be penalized for it. Both of their losses have come against teams in the top 3, and neither was at home, so maybe they'll get noticed when they upset Michigan this week.

Ole Miss made a big move in my rankings this week, but the Rebels still haven't cracked the AP top 25, despite losing only twice so far this season. Part of the problem is that neither loss came to a ranked team, and their first game against a ranked team was on Saturday, when they hosted and upset the Missouri Tigers. They are establishing themselves as the #2 team in the SEC, and a win over Kentucky in 2 weeks should solidify it.

Iowa State moved into the top 25 this week, partly on the strength of a blowout against Texas, and partly due to their overtime loss at Kansas, who was ranked #6 heading into the game. The Cyclones also blew out BYU earlier this season, and the Cougars have now joined Iowa State in my top 25. Iowa State's losses have all been reasonable, with two coming during Thanksgiving weekend, one coming at rival Iowa, and the other against #6 Kansas, but they need to win most of their conference games if they want a good tournament seed.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

(1) Louisville at Connecticut - Cardinals by 2
Baylor at (4) Kansas - Jayhawks by 12

NBA

Orlando at Washington - Magic by 1
Charlotte at Boston - Celtics by 10
Atlanta at Chicago - Bulls by 4
LA Clippers at Memphis - Grizzlies by 1
Minnesota at Dallas - Mavericks by 2
Oklahoma City at Phoenix - Thunder by 10
Miami at Utah - Jazz by 1
Cleveland at Sacramento - Kings by 3

Prediction Results

NBA: 6-1 (.857) 376-178 overall (.679)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 70-44 overall (.614)
College Basketball: 3-1 (.750) 444-89 overall (.833)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 33-35 overall (.485)

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