The field of 68 has finally been set, and Madness is about to begin. The tournament committee did a pretty good job of picking the teams and assigning seeds this year, but that doesn't mean that there aren't a few teams that were left out that shouldn't have been, or a few teams that should not have made the field, or were severely over- or under-seeded. We know there will be upsets, but where will they be? Here is my breakdown of all kinds of odds surrounding the tournament.
Teams That Should Have Been In
Final ranking according to my formula is in parentheses.
Miami (39)
Seton Hall (51)
Tennessee (52)
Middle Tennessee State (53)
Arizona (54)
Of these teams, the only one that I feel was really snubbed would be Miami. The others were all so close to the edge that leaving them out was understandable, although it would have been nice to have the best teams possible. Last season, 3 of my top 28 teams were left out of the field, so I'm impressed with the selections this year.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Final rankings according to my formula in parentheses, with tournament seed on the right.
Colorado State (70) 11
Southern Mississippi (68) 9
Xavier (65) 10
South Florida (64) 12
San Diego State (56) 6
I don't have as much of a problem with San Diego State getting in as I do with the others, although I do believe they should not have been seeded as high as they were, but I'll get to that in a minute. The other four should not be dancing, and I would have preferred to see any of the 5 teams above in their place.
Most Underseeded Teams
These are the teams that were not rewarded as they should have been, and as a result may have a tougher time advancing as far as they should in the tournament, although it could also work to their advantage if the higher seeds overlook them because of it.
1. Belmont
2. Memphis
3. Long Beach State
4. Florida
5. California
6. BYU
7. Wichita State
8. Saint Louis
9. Virginia
10. Iona
For the second straight season, Belmont is the most underrated team in the tournament. Last season, they were given a very difficult matchup against Wisconsin in the first round, which they lost, and this year it's Georgetown. Hopefully things turn out differently. There are two cases in which underrated teams are facing each other in the first round (BYU vs. Iona and Memphis vs. Saint Louis), which is sad, because two of those teams will not have the opportunity to prove people wrong.
Most Overseeded Teams
These are the teams that got far too much credit for their body of work and could end up either advancing farther than they should due to easier schedules or falling prey to early upsets.
1. San Diego State
2. Saint Mary's
3. Southern Mississippi
4. Michigan
5. Temple
6. Notre Dame
7. Xavier
8. Colorado
9. Colorado State
You'll notice that four of these 9 are higher seeds in the Midwest Region, which means that there is a great potential for upsets in the first couple of rounds there. Note that Temple may be playing California in the round of 64, which faces an overrated team against an underrated team, and could be a surprise that many won't see coming.
Number of First Round Upsets
The number of upsets to expect in the first round this year is 10.9, up from my prediction of 10.2 last year. Last year there were actually 7, which fell very much on the low side, so there should be at least 8, although I would put the number between 9 and 13.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
Here are the most likely first round upsets, ranked in order from most to least likely, along with the odds of each happening.
1. (10) Purdue over (7) Saint Mary's - (54.2%)
2. (11) North Carolina State over (6) San Diego State - (52.3%)
3. (14) Belmont over (3) Georgetown - (49.8%)
4. (9) Alabama over (8) Creighton - (49.2%)
5. (11) Texas over (6) Cincinnati - (48.9%)
6. (9) Connecticut over (8) Iowa State - (48.3%)
7. (12) California/South Florida over (5) Temple - (47.4%)
8. (10) West Virginia over (7) Gonzaga - (47.0%)
9. (10) Xavier over (7) Notre Dame - (46.4%)
10. (12) Long Beach State over (5) New Mexico - (43.2%)
11. (13) Ohio over (4) Michigan - (43.2%)
12. (10) Florida over (7) Virginia - (42.7%)
13. (9) Saint Louis over (8) Memphis - (41.3%)
The #7 seeds are all looking like potential upset victims, which is too bad, because the #2 seeds await the winners, and they are generally a pretty strong bunch this year, with Duke being the most likely to fall.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull off an Upset
(15) Lehigh over (2) Duke - 29.4%
(16) North Carolina-Asheville over (1) Syracuse - 15.9%
(15) Detroit over (2) Kansas - 14.7%
(16) Lamar/Vermont over (1) North Carolina - 13.0%
There have been very few #15 seeds that have won a tournament game, and no #16 has even beaten a #1, but this could be the year, with Lamar and NC-Asheville looking like the strongest #16's I have ever seen personally. Just one of these teams pulls off their upset and millions of people will be shrieking in horror about how their brackets are already busted. Don't put too many eggs in these baskets either way, but they're worth a look.
Most Likely Cinderellas
These are the lower-seeded teams that are most likely to reach the Sweet 16 and play into next week.
1. Belmont - (31.1%)
2. Texas - (23.1%)
3. Long Beach State - (21.5%)
4. North Carolina State - (20.2%)
5. Purdue - (19.6%)
6. Ohio - (19.4%)
7. South Dakota State - (19.1%)
8. Saint Bonaventure - (18.2%)
9. Xavier - (17.8%)
10. Alabama - (16.5%)
Number of Double Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
Last season I predicted 3.3, and the actual number turned out to be 4, so I hit that one as close as I could have. This season the number to watch for is 3.8, so between 3 and 5 would be most likely.
Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four
Last year I picked 1.3 top seed to make the Final Four, but none ended up making it, so that one was just a little off, but I was pretty sure that 2 or fewer would be there. This year I'm picking 1.1, so it's even more likely that we'll see a top-seed-free Final Four this year than last.
Odds that a #1 Seed Wins the Tournament
37.2%
Those aren't very good odds, and they are much lower than last season's 44.2%.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
1. (1) Kentucky - 76.2%
2. (2) Ohio State - 74.5%
3. (1) North Carolina - 61.6%
4. (2) Kansas - 60.6%
5. (2) Missouri - 60.6%
6. (1) Michigan State - 58.8%
7. (1) Syracuse - 57.3%
8. (4) Wisconsin - 45.7%
9. (5) Wichita State - 45.0%
10. (2) Duke - 46.3%
All of the top 8 seeds are here, along with two lower-seeded W-schools, who are looking at teams far below their level through the first two rounds.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
1. (1) Kentucky - 37.2%
2. (2) Ohio State - 35.9%
3. (1) North Carolina - 29.2%
4. (1) Michigan State - 24.7%
5. (2) Kansas - 23.7%
6. (2) Missouri - 21.5%
7. (1) Syracuse - 18.4%
8. (5) Wichita State - 13.7%
9. (2) Duke - 12.2%
10. (4) Wisconsin - 12.0%
Very little difference here, except that Michigan State moves up a couple spots, meaning that if they can get through their second round opponent, their third shouldn't give them as much trouble and help them reach that showdown with Missouri.
Most Likely Champions
1. (1) Kentucky - 13.9%
2. (2) Ohio State - 13.8%
3. (1) North Carolina - 10.0%
4. (1) Michigan State - 8.0%
5. (2) Kansas - 7.1%
6. (2) Missouri - 6.0%
7. (1) Syracuse - 5.3%
8. (5) Wichita State - 3.8%
9. (4) Wisconsin - 2.9%
10. (2) Duke - 2.6%
Kentucky and Ohio State are almost exactly even in their odds of taking home a national title, with several other teams also looking strong. These teams have the highest chances of winning, but that doesn't mean everything, because last year the winner had just a 1.7% chance of winning at the start, which put them just slightly outside the top 10, so don't lock in too hard on the top choices.
Overall Bracket
This is how the bracket will turn out if the best team wins in each game. I don't believe the bracket will really turn out like this, or even close to this, but here it is.
First Round
(1) Kentucky
(8) Iowa State
(5) Wichita State
(4) Indiana
(6) UNLV
(3) Baylor
(7) Notre Dame
(2) Duke
(1) Michigan State
(8) Memphis
(5) New Mexico
(4) Louisville
(6) Murray State
(3) Marquette
(7) Florida
(2) Missouri
(1) Syracuse
(8) Kansas State
(5) Vanderbilt
(4) Wisconsin
(6) Cincinnati
(3) Florida State
(7) Gonzaga
(2) Ohio State
(1) North Carolina
(8) Creighton
(5) Temple
(4) Michigan
(11) North Carolina State
(3) Georgetown
(10) Purdue
(2) Kansas
Sweet 16
(1) Kentucky
(5) Wichita State
(3) Baylor
(2) Duke
(1) Michigan State
(5) New Mexico
(3) Marquette
(2) Missouri
(1) Syracuse
(4) Wisconsin
(3) Florida State
(2) Ohio State
(1) North Carolina
(4) Michigan
(3) Georgetown
(2) Kansas
Elite Eight
(1) Kentucky
(2) Duke
(1) Michigan State
(2) Missouri
(1) Syracuse
(2) Ohio State
(1) North Carolina
(2) Kansas
Final Four
(1) Kentucky
(1) Michigan State
(2) Ohio State
(1) North Carolina
Championship
(1) Kentucky
(2) Ohio State
Champion
(2) Ohio State
The lack of upsets in this projected bracket is due to the committee doing what may have been their best job ever in seeding the teams for the tournament, but like I said before, there are likely to be around 11 upsets in the first round alone, and 3 double digit seeds in the Sweet 16, so the chalk outline above is just to show which teams are better and should win, but who will win is a totally different matter. I also do not believe we will see this many of the top seeds advancing deep into the tourney, so keep your options open and enjoy the madness.
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