The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament was exciting as usual, with a good mix of upsets and close games, and only a few games that weren't competitive. There are quite a few interesting games coming up, and several potential matchups that could be very fun to watch. Here are the results of several of my previous predictions, as well as the current odds of each team advancing in the tournament.
Teams That Should Have Been In
Among the 5 teams I named that should have been allowed into the NCAA Tournament, 4 won their first round games in the NIT, with Arizona, the lowest-ranked of the 5, being the lone loser of the bunch. Middle Tennessee is still alive and among the final 8 teams in that tournament.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Only 2 of the five teams that should not have made the NCAA Tournament won a game, with Xavier the only one still alive, which is due to their extremely favorable second-round matchup with Lehigh, which took out Duke in the first round.
Most Underseeded Teams
Of the 10 teams I listed as being seeded too low, only two were able to overcome that disadvantage and win their opening matchups, Florida and Saint Louis. The others were unable to show their true potential due to a schedule that was tougher than it should have been on opening weekend.
Most Overseeded Teams
Of the 9 teams that I named as being seeded too high, 7 lost in the first round, and another lost in the second round, leaving only Xavier to represent them. 5 of those 7 were the victims of upsets, although they weren't all that surprising due to them being placed incorrectly. Xavier was the lucky one that faced another overseeded team in the opening round and a major Cinderella in the second round.
Number of First Round Upsets
I predicted 10.9 upsets in the first round, and there turned out to be 10, so I pretty much nailed this one on the head.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
Of the 10 first round upsets, 6 were listed among the 13 most likely ones in my tournament preview, with the two that I had at over 50% both coming through.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull Off an Upset
I listed Lehigh as the most likely low seed to pull off the first round upset, and I think we all know how that went. I did not, however, see Norfolk State taking out Missouri.
Number of Double Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
I predicted that there would be 3.8, so the 3 that are still alive this year once again proved my formula correct.
Most Likely Cinderellas
All 3 of the low seeds still alive in the tournament were in my top 9 most likely Cinderellas, so I'm feeling pretty good about this one too.
Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four
At the beginning of the tourney I picked 1.1 top seeds to make the Final Four, but that number has risen to 1.6 due to all 4 emerging from the first weekend unscathed. I still don't believe we will see more than two of them make it.
Odds of a #1 Winning the Championship
The odds of this have risen as well, from 37.2% before the tourney to 49.9% today, so there's a pretty good chance that we'll see one of the four hoisting the trophy at the end of it all.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
7 of my 8 most likely are still in as of the Sweet 16, so that's not too bad, although Missouri's absence is very surprising.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
1. North Carolina - 49.0%
2. Kentucky - 47.9%
3. Ohio State - 43.6%
4. Michigan State - 39.2%
5. Kansas - 34.1%
6. Syracuse - 25.8%
7. Baylor - 23.3%
8. Florida - 23.1%
9. Marquette - 21.8%
10. Wisconsin - 20.9%
Most Likely Champions
1. Kentucky - 16.4%
2. North Carolina - 15.4%
3. Ohio State - 15.1%
4. Michigan State - 11.4%
5. Kansas - 8.5%
6. Syracuse - 6.7%
7. Wisconsin - 4.7%
8. Florida - 4.5%
9. Marquette - 4.0%
10. Baylor - 3.8%
Only a couple of changes between the two lists, one being that Kentucky remains the most likely team to win the championship despite having lower odds than North Carolina of making the Final Four. A large part of that is the Tar Heels' region, which includes two of the Cinderella teams, meaning they have an easier path than many of the favorites. Also, Wisconsin and Baylor switched spots here, because Wisconsin is a much stronger team, but they face a tougher path to get to the Final Four, with both Syracuse and Ohio State standing in the way.
Odds of a Conference Having Multiple Teams in the Final Four
Big 10 - 45.3% (4 left)
Big East - 13.4% (4 left)
SEC - 11.1% (2 left)
Big 12 - 8.0% (2 left)
The ACC, despite having two teams still alive, cannot have both in the Final Four, because both are in the same region. The Big East has relatively low odds of getting two there because they are only in two regions, so two are guaranteed to be out. The Big 10 has its four teams spread among 3 regions, so there is a very good chance we'll see two teams from that conference among the Final Four teams. In fact, the odds are 4.9% that the Big 10 will have three representatives still standing after this weekend.
Championship Game Odds
All Big 10 - 10.8%
All Big 12 - 1.7%
All Big East - 2.7%
All Cats - 1.5%
All Birds - 2.7%
All Blue - 12.7%
All Green - 0.5%
All Red - 5.4%
All Orange - 1.4%
All Double-Digit Seeds - 0.1%
All Ohio - 0.9%
All Wisconsin - 1.0%
All Cincinnati (Brawl Rematch) - 0.1%
All K - 4.9%
All Mid-Major - 0.05%
All #1's - 20.4%
All #4's - 1.5%
There you have it, all the odds you could ever want to know about, and some you probably didn't. Enjoy the rest of the tournament, and good luck with your brackets.
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