Thursday, January 27, 2011

College Basketball Conference Predictions - MWC, Horizon, WCC

I've decided to expand my predictions beyond the power conferences and predict the final standings of the mid-majors also. I start today with the 3 that have had the most success in the past decade, and will finish up with a few others on Saturday. Current standing is in parentheses after predicted final record.

Mountain West

1. BYU (14-2) (28-3) (1)
2. San Diego State (13-3) (28-3) (2)
3. UNLV (10-6) (22-8) (4)
4. Colorado State (8-8) (18-12) (3)
5. New Mexico (7-9) (19-12) (6)
6. Utah (7-9) (14-16) (5)
7. Air Force (6-10) (15-14) (7)
8. TCU (4-12) (13-18) (9)
9. Wyoming (3-13) (10-20) (8)

BYU's big win over the Aztecs last night gave them an advantage in the conference race, but it won't be decided until they face off again right before the end of the season, this time in San Diego. Besides that game, the Cougars still must face UNLV once and New Mexico twice, so the meat of the conference schedule is still coming. UNLV seems like the only team locked into its spot, as they are not in the same class as the top 2, but they are definitely better than any other team in the conference. The conference will most likely have 3 tournament teams, and two are already locked in. If UNLV falters, Colorado State and New Mexico look like they could get in, but only with a winning conference record.

Horizon

1. Cleveland State (14-4) (25-5) (1)
2. Valparaiso (13-5) (21-9) (2)
3. Butler (12-6) (20-10) (3)
4. Wright State (11-7) (18-12) (4)
5. Detroit (9-9) (15-15) (5)
5. Green Bay (9-9) (15-15) (5)
7. Milwaukee (9-9) (14-15) (7)
8. Loyola-IL (7-11) (16-13) (8)
9. Youngstown State (3-15) (9-19) (9)
10. Illinois-Chicago (3-15) (8-22) (10)

There won't be a runaway in this conference like Butler was last year, but Cleveland State has the clear path to the conference title because they face the other two challengers at home, while Butler must face both on the road. The Horizon League will probably send two teams to the tournament, so Valparaiso is looking like the odd team out right now, but they could just as easily win the conference tournament, which would leave the committee with a tough decision between the Vikings and Bulldogs, because I don't think that 3 teams will get out of this conference.

West Coast Conference

1. Saint Mary's (12-2) (24-5) (1)
2. Gonzaga (9-5) (21-10) (3)
3. San Francisco (9-5) (15-14) (2)
4. Portland (7-7) (20-10) (5)
5. Santa Clara (7-7) (16-14) (4)
6. Loyola Marymount (5-9) (13-16) (7)
7. Pepperdine (5-9) (11-20) (6)
8. San Diego (2-12) (6-23) (8)

Saint Mary's looks like the definite winner of the regular season championship, but with Gonzaga always dangerous, nothing is certain in the conference tournament. Both teams should make it to the NCAA's, just like last year, but no one else looks strong enough to join them, not even the San Francisco team that upset Gonzaga earlier in the week. The most important thing the rest of the way for Saint Mary's is to beat Gonzaga by enough to impress the committee and the computers, because if they end up below the 6 seed they will have a very tough road to the Sweet 16.

NBA Player of the Day

Kevin Durant - OKC - 47 pts, 18 reb, 2 ast, 2 stl, 2 blk, 15-28 FG, 4-8 3P, 13-14 FT
In last night's matchup of the Western Conference's two premier forwards, Kevin Durant more than held his own against the much bigger Kevin Love. Love, the league's leading rebounder, grabbed 3 more boards than Durant, but Durant, the league's leading scorer, put in 16 more points than the other Kevin. His 47 points tied Blake Griffin for the highest output of the season, and his 16 straight points in the 4th quarter allowed the Thunder to keep even with the Wolves and win it in overtime.

Predictions - 27 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Heat at Knicks - Heat by 4
Rockets at Mavericks - Mavs by 5
Celtics at Trail Blazers - Celts by 3

College Basketball

Boston College at (3) Duke - Duke by 20
(21) Illinois at Indiana - Illinois by 2
(22) Vanderbilt at Mississippi State - Vandy by 16
(24) Saint Mary's at Gonzaga - Gonzaga by 1
(25) Utah State at San Jose State - Utah State by 5
UCLA at Arizona - Arizona by 15

Prediction Results - 26 Jan

NBA: 8/10 (.800) 357/493 overall (.724)
College Basketball: 6/7 (.857) 328/398 overall (.824)
Upsets: 2/2 (1.000) 88/141 overall (.624)

My prediction percentages have aligned today, with gaps of exactly 10% between each one.

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