College Basketball Conference Predictions - Big 10, Pac 10, Big East

As promised, here are my predictions for the final standings of the other 3 major conferences at the end of the regular season. These standings are all based on probability of winning each remaining game combined with the results of games that have already occurred. Current standing is in parentheses after the projected records for each team.

Big 10

1. Ohio State (14-3) (27-3) (1)

2. Purdue (12-5) (23-7) (2)

3. Illinois (11-7) (21-10) (4)

4. Michigan State (11-7) (19-11) (5)

5. Wisconsin (10-8) (20-10) (3)

6. Northwestern (9-9) (19-10) (7)

7. Minnesota (8-10) (19-11) (6)

8. Penn State (7-11) (14-15) (8)

9. Michigan (6-12) (16-15) (9)

10. Indiana (6-12) (15-16) (10)

11. Iowa (4-14) (11-19) (11)

Ohio State is facing its most difficult test of the season today in Illinois, then they follow it up with a visit from Purdue. They also must travel to Wisconsin to face the Badgers, any of which have real upset potential, but in the end, they are far enough ahead of the rest of the conference that they should win it. Purdue has the best chance to pass the Buckeyes, but they have to play each of the other top 5 conference teams on the road, so they will likely climb no higher than second. Illinois may be the hottest team in the conference right now, and after today they have no real tests until late February, so they may spend a while in second place, but it probably won't last. Northwestern and Penn State should be considered the bubble teams in the Big 10, but I doubt that both will get in, so the Big 10 will have 5 or 6 teams playing in March.

Pac 10

1. Washington (16-2) (25-5) (1)

2. Arizona (12-6) (23-8) (2)

3. Washington State (10-8) (20-10) (4)

4. UCLA (10-8) (19-12) (3)

5. USC (10-8) (18-13) (6)

6. Stanford (8-10) (16-14) (5)

7. California (8-10) (15-15) (8)

8. Oregon State (7-11) (12-17) (7)

9. Arizona State (5-13) (13-17) (9)

10. Oregon (4-14) (11-19) (10)

The Pac 10 plays the most balanced schedule of any of the major conferences, with every team facing every other both at home and on the road. Washington is the clear favorite here, and barring major injuries or suspensions, they will win the Pac 10 easily. Arizona is very likely to end up in second place, with no other real challengers in place. Washington State should make the tournament, and UCLA and USC have a slight chance of making the NCAA's, but no one else is in the running.

Big East

1. Pittsburgh (15-3) (27-4) (1)

2. Syracuse (13-5) (26-5) (2)

3. Louisville (12-6) (23-8) (4)

4. Villanova (11-7) (23-8) (3)

5. Marquette (11-7) (20-11) (6)

6. Cincinnati (10-8) (23-8) (10)

7. Connecticut (10-8) (22-8) (5)

8. Notre Dame (10-8) (21-9) (8)

8. Georgetown (10-8) (21-9) (11)

10. West Virginia (10-8) (19-11) (7)

11. Saint John's (9-9) (16-14) (9)

12. Rutgers (6-12) (15-15) (12)

13. Seton Hall (6-12) (12-18) (13)

14. Providence (5-13) (16-15) (15)

15. South Florida (4-14) (10-21) (14)

16. DePaul (2-16) (8-22) (16)

Pittsburgh looks like the most likely champion of the Big East, especially after beating Syracuse last week. Second place will come down to Syracuse, Villanova, and Louisville, and Marquette if they can pull another big upset. Early-season surprise Cincinnati has the easiest road of anyone the rest of the way, with UConn, Pitt, and Louisville once each on their schedule. Georgetown has also been the victim of a difficult schedule, but it doesn't get much easier, so they will finish in the middle of the pack. The Big East is a lock to have 9 tournament teams, and West Virginia will probably make it 10. If Saint John's can upset Duke next month, that should give them enough to put 11 in, but it will go no further than that, as the bottom 5 have no chance at all of a tournament run, except in the unlikely case that one of them wins the conference tournament.

NBA Player of the Day

Dwight Howard - ORL - 31 pts, 19 reb, 12-21 FG, 7-13 FT

If you think that Howard's line looks good, consider that he only played 30 minutes of Orlando's blowout of Toronto. If the game had been closer and Howard had stayed on the floor, a 40-20 game would not have been out of the question.

Predictions - 22 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Mavericks at Nets - Mavs by 5

Celtics at Wizards - Celtics by 11

Hawks at Bobcats - Hawks by 1

Suns at Pistons - Suns by 1

Raptors at Heat - Heat by 15

Jazz at 76ers - 76ers by 1

Spurs at Hornets - Spurs by 1

Cavaliers at Bulls - Bulls by 18

Knicks at Thunder - Thunder by 5

Magic at Rockets - Magic by 2

Grizzlies at Bucks - Bucks by 2

Pacers at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 5

Warriors at Clippers - Clippers by 3

College Basketball

(1) Ohio State at (22) Illinois - Ohio State by 1

(11) Texas at (2) Kansas - Kansas by 12

(7) Villanova at (3) Syracuse - Syracuse by 8

(4) Pittsburgh at DePaul - Pitt by 17

(5) Duke at Wake Forest - Duke by 25

Tennessee at (6) Connecticut - UConn by 10

(9) BYU at Colorado State - BYU by 4

(24) Kansas State at (10) Texas A&M - Texas A&M by 7

(12) Kentucky at South Carolina - Kentucky by 10

(18) Michigan State at (13) Purdue - Purdue by 10

Iowa State at (14) Missouri - Missouri by 8

(15) Louisville at Providence - Louisville by 6

Marquette at (16) Notre Dame - Notre Dame by 5

(19) Minnesota at Michigan - Michigan by 4

Arizona State at (20) Washington - Washington by 26

(21) Saint Mary's at Vanderbilt - Vandy by 5

(25) Arizona at Washington State - Washington State by 2

Clemson at Maryland - Maryland by 11

Longwood at Virginia Tech - VTech by 37

Prediction Results - 21 Jan

NBA: 8/10 (.800) 327/454 overall (.720)

College Basketball: 1/1 (1.000) 305/362 overall (.843)

Upsets: 2/3 (.667) 79/125 overall (.632)