Predictions - 27 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Houston at Golden State - Warriors by 10

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 48-26 overall (.649)

Predictions - 26 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Atlanta at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 5

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 0-1 (.000) 47-26 overall (.644)

Predictions - 25 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Golden State at Houston - Warriors by 7

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 47-25 overall (.653)

Predictions - 24 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Atlanta at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 5

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 46-25 overall (.648)

NBA Playoff Odds - 23 May

We are two games into the conference finals, and both teams that I picked to win have taken a 2-0 lead, with Golden State taking care of home court and Cleveland taking two on the road, setting up the possibility of closing it out at home early next week. The other two teams are not out yet (just ask Houston), but the odds are definitely against them. Here are the odds of each team advancing past this round and winning the title:

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 98.0% (+4.0)
2. Cavaliers - 93.3% (+32.3)
3. Hawks - 6.7% (-32.3)
4. Rockets - 2.0% (-4.0)

I thought that the Hawks and Cavs would be tied at one at this point, but Cleveland is showing no mercy, and at this point it is looking like the NBA Finals may already be set.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 78.3% (-2.7)
2. Cavaliers - 20.5% (+8.3)
3. Hawks - 0.59% (-4.3)
4. Rockets - 0.57% (-1.4)

Cleveland is the only team that has increased its odds in the last two games, since Golden State had to sweat out both victories in its series, while the Cavs won convincingly.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Golden State at Houston - Warriors by 5

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 0-1 (.000) 45-25 overall (.643)

Predictions - 22 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Cleveland at Atlanta - Hawks by 1

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 45-24 overall (.652)

Predictions - 21 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Houston at Golden State - Warriors by 9

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 45-23 (.662)

Predictions - 20 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Cleveland at Atlanta - Hawks by 1

MLB

Oakland at Houston - Astros by 3.1
Texas at Boston - Red Sox by 1.0
Seattle at Baltimore - Mariners by 1.4
NY Yankees at Washington - Yankees by 0.7
Minnesota at Pittsburgh - Twins by 1.9
LA Angels at Toronto - Blue Jays by 1.4
Milwaukee at Detroit - Brewers by 0.1
Tampa Bay at Atlanta - Rays by 1.5
Saint Louis at NY Mets - Cardinals by 0.4
Arizona at Miami - Marlins by 1.1
Cleveland at Chi Sox - White Sox by 1.1
Cincinnati at Kansas City - Royals by 4.2
Philadelphia at Colorado - Rockies by 2.2
Chi Cubs at San Diego - Padres by 1.2
LA Dodgers at San Francisco - Giants by 0.8

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 44-23 overall (.657)
MLB: 5-10 (.333) 35-58 overall (.376)
Upsets: 0-3 (.000) 10-20 overall (.333)

NBA Playoff Odds - 19 May

There are now just 4 teams remaining in the NBA Playoffs, and they happen to be the top 4 seeds overall. Houston was able to make an amazing comeback from a 3-1 deficit in the second round to upset the Clippers, but now they must face the top-seeded Warriors without the benefit of home court advantage. Here are the updated odds of each remaining team advancing:

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 94.0% (+39.9)
2. Cavaliers - 61.0% (+22.7)
3. Hawks - 39.0% (+3.8)
4. Rockets - 6.0% (+6.0)

A week ago I said Houston odds were basically at zero, but three straight wins gave them a small chance to advance to the next round.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 81.0% (+34.3)
2. Cavaliers - 12.2% (+4.3)
3. Hawks - 4.9% (-1.0)
4. Rockets - 2.0% (+2.0)

No one was happier than Golden State to see the Clippers go down in Houston on Sunday, since the two teams have a well-known rivalry in recent years. Golden State should coast to the title, although bigger odds have been overcome in just the last week.

Playoff Picks

Conference Finals

Warriors over Rockets in 5
Cavaliers over Hawks in 7

NBA Finals

Warriors over Cavaliers in 6

I've only picked 2 series wrong so far, and both involved the Clippers, who I picked to lose in the first round, then picked to win in the second round. They have been replaced by Houston here in a shorter series for Golden State, with no other changes from before.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Houston at Golden State - Warriors by 9

MLB

Seattle at Baltimore - Orioles by 3.5
NY Yankees at Washington - Nationals by 1.0
Minnesota at Pittsburgh - Pirates by 0.4
LA Angels at Toronto - Blue Jays by 0.4
Milwaukee at Detroit - Tigers by 1.4
Arizona at Miami - Marlins by 1.3
Texas at Boston - Rangers by 1.4
Tampa Bay at Atlanta - Rays by 1.6
Saint Louis at NY Mets - Cardinals by 1.2
Cleveland at Chi Sox - White Sox by 1.0
Cincinnati at Kansas City - Royals by 0.6
Oakland at Houston - Athletics by 1.6
Philadelphia at Colorado - Phillies by 0.1
Chi Cubs at San Diego - Cubs by 0.7
LA Dodgers at San Francisco - Dodgers by 2.2

Prediction Results

MLB: 3-4 (.429) 30-48 overall (.385)
Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 10-17 overall (.370)

Predictions - 18 May

Upset picks are in italics.

MLB

LA Angels at Toronto - Blue Jays by 0.6
Saint Louis at NY Mets - Cardinals by 0.9
Milwaukee at Detroit - Tigers by 3.3
Arizona at Miami - Diamondbacks by 1.5
Cleveland at Chi Sox - White Sox by 0.1
Oakland at Houston - Astros by 1.8
Philadelphia at Colorado - Rockies by 0.5

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 0-1 (.000) 43-23 overall (.652)
MLB: 5-10 (.333) 27-44 overall (.380)
Upsets: 2-5 (.286) 8-15 overall (.348)

Predictions - 17 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

LA Clippers at Houston - Clippers by 2

MLB

San Francisco at Cincinnati - Giants by 0.1
Milwaukee at NY Mets - Brewers by 1.4
Atlanta at Miami - Braves by 3.3
Arizona at Philadelphia - Diamondbacks by 2.5
LA Angels at Baltimore - Angels by 0.3
NY Yankees at Kansas City - Royals by 1.6
Tampa Bay at Minnesota - Twins by 0.5
Toronto at Houston - Astros by 0.6
Pittsburgh at Chi Cubs - Cubs by 0.2
Cleveland at Texas - Indians by 0.1
Chi Sox at Oakland - Athletics by 1.1
Boston at Seattle - Red Sox by 1.5
Colorado at LA Dodgers - Dodgers by 5.1
Washington at San Diego - Padres by 0.2
Detroit at Saint Louis - Tigers by 0.4

Prediction Results

MLB: 6-9 (.400) 22-34 overall (.393)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 6-10 overall (.375)

Predictions - 16 May

Upset picks are in italics.

MLB

Atlanta at Miami - Marlins by 1.0
Tampa Bay at Minnesota - Twins by 0.2
Detroit at Saint Louis - Tigers by 0.2
Pittsburgh at Chi Cubs - Pirates by 0.3
LA Angels at Baltimore - Orioles by 2.4
Arizona at Philadelphia - Diamondbacks by 2.1
NY Yankees at Kansas City - Royals by 0.5
San Francisco at Cincinnati - Reds by 0.3
Toronto at Houston - Astros by 0.3
Milwaukee at NY Mets - Mets by 0.5
Cleveland at Texas - Indians by 1.4
Washington at San Diego - Nationals by 1.3
Chi Sox at Oakland - Athletics by 2.0
Boston at Seattle - Mariners by 0.9
Colorado at LA Dodgers - Dodgers by 5.9

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 2-0 (1.000) 43-22 overall (.662)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 3-2 overall (.600)
MLB: 8-7 (.533) 16-25 overall (.390)
Upsets: 3-2 (.600) 6-9 overall (.400)

Predictions - 15 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Atlanta at Washington - Hawks by 1
Golden State at Memphis - Warriors by 6

MLB

Pittsburgh at Chi Cubs - Pirates by 1.2
Arizona at Philadelphia - Diamondbacks by 6.5
LA Angels at Baltimore - Orioles by 1.4
San Francisco at Cincinnati - Giants by 1.9
Milwaukee at NY Mets - Mets by 2.4
Atlanta at Miami - Marlins by 1.5
Cleveland at Texas - Rangers by 3.7
NY Yankees at Kansas City - Royals by 2.1
Tampa Bay at Minnesota - Rays by 2.3
Toronto at Houston - Astros by 1.6
Detroit at Saint Louis - Tigers by 0.4
Chi Sox at Oakland - White Sox by 2.3
Boston at Seattle - Mariners by 2.1
Colorado at LA Dodgers - Dodgers by 2.4
Washington at San Diego - Nationals by 0.1

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 0-2 (.000) 41-22 overall (.651)
MLB: 3-8 (.273) 8-18 overall (.308)
Upsets: 1-4 (.200) 3-7 overall (.300)

Predictions - 14 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Cleveland at Chicago - Bulls by 1
Houston at LA Clippers - Clippers by 8

MLB

St. Louis at Cleveland - Cardinals by 2.8
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia - Phillies by 0.5
Minnesota at Detroit - Twins by 2.2
Kansas City at Texas - Royals by 3.2
NY Mets at Chi Cubs - Mets by 2.9
San Francisco at Cincinnati - Giants by 0.6
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay - Yankees by 1.0
Toronto at Houston - Blue Jays by 0.1
Boston at Seattle - Mariners by 0.7
Colorado at LA Dodgers - Dodgers by 2.8
Washington at San Diego - Nationals by 0.6

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 2-0 (1.000) 41-20 overall (.672)
MLB: 5-10 (.333)
Upsets: 2-3 (.400)

Predictions - 13 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Washington at Atlanta - Hawks by 6
Memphis at Golden State - Warriors by 10

MLB

Boston at Oakland - Athletics by 4.3
Washington at Arizona - Nationals by 1.8
St. Louis at Cleveland - Cardinals by 3.2
Toronto at Baltimore - Blue Jays by 0.3
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia - Pirates by 1.3
Minnesota at Detroit - Tigers by 2.0
Atlanta at Cincinnati - Braves by 1.3
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay - Yankees by 0.7
Miami at LA Dodgers - Dodgers by 4.3
NY Mets at Chi Cubs - Mets by 0.4
Kansas City at Texas - Royals by 2.1
Chi White Sox at Milwaukee - White Sox by 0.8
San Francisco at Houston - Astros by 0.8
Colorado at LA Angels - Angels by 0.8
San Diego at Seattle - Padres by 1.4

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 39-20 overall (.661)

NBA Playoff Odds - 12 May

4 days ago we had 4 series tied at 1-1 heading to the home court of the lower seeds for a pair of games. Only one of those lower seeds held home court, while the other 3 allowed the higher seed to retake home court advantage, giving us 3 3-game series. Here are each team's updated odds of advancing through the playoffs:

Odds of Winning Second Round

1. Clippers - 97.8% (+19.5)
2. Warriors - 87.2% (+0.0)
3. Hawks - 74.3% (+3.4)
4. Cavaliers - 60.0% (+7.0)
5. Bulls - 40.0% (-7.0)
6. Wizards - 25.7% (-3.4)
7. Grizzlies - 12.8% (-0.0)
8. Rockets - 2.2% (-19.5)

Houston's inability to win in LA cost them big this week, because now they must win 3 games in a row against the hottest team in the league, one of those in LA. It's not looking good for the Beard.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 54.1% (-10.9)
2. Clippers - 44.4% (+15.4)
3. Cavaliers - 38.3% (+4.0)
4. Hawks - 35.2% (+1.9)
5. Bulls - 22.4% (-5.0)
6. Wizards - 4.1% (-0.9)
7. Grizzlies - 1.3% (-1.4)

Houston's already slim odds of making the Finals disappeared on Sunday, since they would need to win 3 straight games against the league's #2 team, followed by 4 out of 7 against the league's best team just to get there.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 46.7% (-9.3)
2. Clippers - 35.4% (+14.5)
3. Cavaliers - 7.9% (-0.6)
4. Hawks - 5.9% (-0.7)
5. Bulls - 3.4% (-2.0)

We are down to 5 teams with a real chance of winning it all, and the odds for the Eastern Conference teams are all pretty slim. Odds of a team from California taking home the title: 82.1%. Number of times a team from California other than the Lakers has won a title: 1 (Golden State - 1975).

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Chicago at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 3
LA Clippers at Houston - Clippers by 4

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 2-0 (1.000) 38-19 overall (.667)

Predictions - 11 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Atlanta at Washington - Hawks by 1
Golden State at Memphis - Warriors by 4

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 36-19 overall (.655)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 2-2 overall (.500)

Predictions - 10 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Cleveland at Chicago - Bulls by 1
Houston at LA Clippers - Clippers by 7

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 0-2 (.000) 35-18 overall (.660)

Predictions - 9 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Atlanta at Washington - Hawks by 1
Golden State at Memphis - Warriors by 5

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 2-0 (1.000) 35-16 overall (.686)

Predictions - 8 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Cleveland at Chicago - Bulls by 1
Houston at LA Clippers - Clippers by 6

NBA Playoff Odds - 7 May

There are no NBA Playoff games today, as all 8 teams are travelling to the homes of the lower seeds today. Since all 4 series are tied at 1-1, they have all essentially become 5-game series with the lower seeds now owning home court advantage, so the odds of the lower seeds advancing have increased since the weekend. Here are my updated odds for each team advancing through each remaining round and winning it all.

Odds of Winning Second Round

1. Warriors - 87.2% (-6.3)
2. Clippers - 78.3% (+5.3)
3. Hawks - 70.9% (-7.1)
4. Cavaliers - 53.0% (-5.5)
5. Bulls - 47.0% (+5.5)
6. Wizards - 29.1% (+7.1)
7. Rockets - 21.7% (-5.3)
8. Grizzlies - 12.8% (+6.3)

The upsets by the 5-seeds had a slightly larger impact than the 3-seeds' upsets, since they were less likely to happen, with Memphis nearly doubling its odds of escaping this round.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 65.0% (-7.3)
2. Cavaliers - 34.3% (-2.3)
3. Hawks - 33.3% (-2.5)
4. Clippers - 29.0% (+6.4)
5. Bulls - 27.4% (+3.7)
6. Wizards - 5.0% (+1.2)
7. Rockets - 3.3% (-0.3)
8. Grizzlies - 2.7% (+1.2)

The Clippers stole home court from Houston and watched Golden State drop a game, which gave a huge boost to LA in just 2 games.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 56.0% (-6.4)
2. Clippers - 20.9% (+5.1)
3. Cavaliers - 8.5% (+0.1)
4. Hawks - 6.6% (+0.0)
5. Bulls - 5.4% (+0.9)
6. Rockets - 1.4% (-0.2)

Golden State's odds may have dropped after losing for the first time this postseason, but they are still the huge favorite to walk away with their first title in 40 years.

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 33-16 overall (.674)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 2-1 overall (.667)

Predictions - 6 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Chicago at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 3
LA Clippers at Houston - Clippers by 2

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 32-15 overall (.681)

Predictions - 5 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Washington at Atlanta - Hawks by 5
Memphis at Golden State - Warriors by 10

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 31-14 overall (.689)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 2-0 overall (1.000)

Predictions - 4 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Chicago at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 3
LA Clippers at Houston - Clippers by 1

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 30-13 overall (.698)

NBA Playoff Odds - 3 May

The first round has ended, with only 2 lower seeds advancing out of the first round, both from the #5 position. Round 2 starts today, so I've updated my odds of each team continuing to advance through the playoffs, along with my picks for the winner and length of each remaining round, which have changed just slightly since the playoffs began.

Odds of Winning Second Round

1. Warriors - 93.5% (-0.4)
2. Hawks - 78.0% (+16.6)
3. Clippers - 73.0% (+39.1)
4. Cavaliers - 58.5% (-13.8)
5. Bulls - 41.5% (+14.7)
6. Rockets - 27.0% (+5.2)
7. Wizards - 22.0% (-13.2)
8. Grizzlies - 6.5% (+0.7)

The Clippers, Hawks, and Bulls all improved their odds of winning this round by a lot over the past 5 days, mostly due to finishing out their first round series. The Wizards' odds dropped off due to Atlanta beating Brooklyn, which had a 15.9% chance 5 days ago of taking the series and giving Washington home court in the next round.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 72.3% (+3.5)
2. Cavaliers - 36.6% (-15.0)
3. Hawks - 35.8% (+9.7)
4. Bulls - 23.7% (+8.8)
5. Clippers - 22.6% (+12.7)
6. Wizards - 3.8% (-3.2)
7. Rockets - 3.6% (+0.9)
8. Grizzlies - 1.5% (+0.3)

The Spurs' loss in the first round boosted both the Clippers, who weren't expected to be here, and the Warriors, who expected to face them in the conference finals. Cleveland was not happy to see both Atlanta and Chicago wake up from their doldrums to advance, making the Eastern Conference race a very tight one.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

1. Warriors - 62.4% (+2.2)
2. Clippers - 15.8% (+8.7)
3. Cavaliers - 8.4% (-3.0)
4. Hawks - 6.6% (+3.0)
5. Bulls - 4.5% (+2.8)
6. Rockets - 1.6% (+0.3)

Neither 5-seed is going to win three straight series on the road, so they aren't even worth showing here. The Clippers earned the biggest boost after knocking out the defending champs, with only Cleveland slipping after seeing its biggest competition stay alive.

Playoff Picks

Second Round

Hawks over Wizards in 6
Cavaliers over Bulls in 7
Warriors over Grizzlies in 5
Clippers over Rockets in 6

The only two changes I made here were switching out Toronto and San Antonio for Washington and LA. The series length predictions are all the same as originally predicted.

Conference Finals

Cavaliers over Hawks in 7
Warriors over Clippers in 7

I changed Golden State's opponent here, but not the length of the series. I also switched my Eastern Conference pick to Cleveland winning in 7 rather than Atlanta.

NBA Finals

Warriors over Cavaliers in 6

Just switching opponents in the Finals, but still taking Golden State to get their first title in 40 years.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Washington at Atlanta - Hawks by 6
Memphis at Golden State - Warriors by 9

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 29-12 overall (.707)

Predictions - 2 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

San Antonio at LA Clippers - Clippers by 1

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 28-12 overall (.700)

Predictions - 1 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Playoffs

Atlanta at Brooklyn - Hawks by 4

Prediction Results

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 27-12 overall (.692)