Why the Pac 10 Has Only 4 Bowl Teams

Many people have been quick to point out that the Pac10 didn't come close to fulfilling all of its bowl commitments this year, and they are using this as evidence that the Pac10 is not as strong as it once was. That is simply not true, and there are facts to back it up.

First, it is important to note that the Pac10 is the only conference which played a 9-game conference schedule this year. Why does that matter? It matters because there are 45 total games played between 2 Pac10 opponents, and in each of those games one team must come out with a loss. That means each team would have an average on 4.5 losses in conference play. Add to that the fact that the Pac10 had 2 teams that were BCS quality this year, Oregon and Stanford, that had only one conference loss between them (when they played each other), and there are 44 losses left to split among 8 teams, an average of 5.5 per team. That leaves absolutely no room for error in non-conference matchups.

Now look at the final Pac10 standings. Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, and Washington all qualified for bowls with the current schedule. USC would have qualified for a bowl if they hadn't allowed Reggie Bush to pay for play a few years ago, because they finished with an 8-5 record. Oregon State, Arizona State, and Cal would be bowl eligible if they were allowed to forgo one of their tough conference games in exchange for what will most likely be a less-talented non-conference opponent. Suddenly the Pac10 has 8 bowl-eligible teams, and looks every bit the power that it is.

So why would the Pac10 set up a schedule that would be so detrimental to their postseason chances? One possible explanation is that it eliminates the chance that they end up with co-champions at the end of the season, like the Big10 did this year, because Ohio State never played Michigan State. Another possible reason is that it gave the Pac10 incredible strength of schedule numbers. If you look at the top 11 teams ranked by strength of schedule according to Jeff Sagarin, who is one of the contributors to the BCS formula, you will see that 9 of them are from the Pac10. The only member of the Pac10 not ranked in the top 11 by strength of schedule is #1 Oregon, and there's a good reason for that - they didn't have to play themselves.

Sadly, amping up the strength of schedule throughout the conference with the extended schedule backfired in two different ways. First, the lack of bowl-eligible teams, which has already been mentioned above. Second, the higher strength of schedule only helps in one third of the BCS rankings, the part generated by computer rankings. The other two-thirds are based solely on poll results, which are based on perception rather than fact. This can be highlighted quite easily by referring to the comments of President E. Gordon Gee of Ohio State University, a member of the Big10 conference, who stated that, referring to the difference between his school and Boise State and TCU, "We do not play the Little Sisters of the Poor. We play very fine schools on any given day." What he didn't know is that at the moment he said that, Boise State was ranked two spots ahead of Ohio State in strength of schedule, and finished up 2 spots behind them. It's also worth noting that none of the 3 Big10 co-champions had a strength of schedule ranked in the top half of the Football Bowl Subdivision.

The point of all of this? The first is that what most people call Strength of Schedule is only a perception of strength, based on membership in a so-called power conference. Hopefully, although it's not very likely, the BCS will recognize this and put less weight on opinion and more weight on solid fact. Second, the Pac10 (or Pac12, as it will be called next year) should revert to the more standard 8-game conference schedule if they want to increase their bowl revenue.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

NFL - 9-13 Dec

Colts at Titans - Titans by 2

Broncos at Cardinals - Broncos by 5
Browns at Bills - Browns by 4
Packers at Lions - Packers by 7
Giants at Vikings - Giants by 1
Bengals at Steelers - Steelers by 16
Buccaneers at Redskins - Redskins by 1
Falcons at Panthers - Falcons by 17
Raiders at Jaguars - Raiders by 1
Rams at Saints - Saints by 9
Seahawks at 49ers - 49ers by 3
Patriots at Bears - Patriots by 7
Dolphins at Jets - Jets by 4
Chiefs at Chargers - Chargers by 4
Eagles at Cowboys - Eagles by 5

Ravens at Texans - Ravens by 5

NBA

Celtics at 76ers - Celtics by 6
Nets at Mavericks - Mavericks by 14
Magic at Blazers - Magic by 2

College Basketball

IUPUI at (2) Ohio State - Ohio State by 34
(10) Georgetown at Temple - Georgetown by 3
Kent State at (24) Florida - Florida by 17
Butler at Xavier - Butler by 11

Prediction Results - 8 Dec

NBA: 8/11 (.727) 103/143 overall (.720)
College Basketball: 15/16 (.938) 58/65 overall (.892)

The only college basketball pick I missed last night was my upset special, which was won by Missouri over Vanderbilt by 3 points in overtime. I was that close to a perfect night.