NBA Playoff Odds

The regular season has ended, and the playoffs are starting in just a few hours, giving team very little time to prepare for their first opponents, but keeping the fans interested and involved by reducing down time. The top four teams have been set in stone for months it seems, and those four teams are still the most likely to win the championship, but there are several other teams that could make runs deep into the playoffs. A couple of playoff teams have been weakened by injury or suspension, and it could cause those teams to exit the playoffs a little faster than expected. Here are my odds for teams advancing in the playoffs, and the odds of seeing various Finals matchups, along with my predictions for how the playoffs will shake out.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

1. Denver over LA Lakers - 61.3%
2. LA Clippers over Memphis - 52.1%
3. Atlanta over Boston - 50.8%
4. New York over Miami - 37.9%

The Lakers have been weakened by the loss of "World Peace," possibly the least accurate name ever chosen, and Kobe has had his worst shooting season of his career. The Lakers played better when he was out, so I just don't see them beating a Denver team that is getting healthy at the right time. The Clippers and Memphis switched spots on the last day of the season, but with the way Chris Paul turns it on in the playoffs, I don't see them going down in the first round. Atlanta is technically an upset, since they are the #5 seed, but since they have a better record than the Celtics, who won their division to earn the #4 seed, the Hawks have home court advantage in the first round, which gives them a slight advantage. I'm not picking New York to beat Miami, but of all the top teams, Miami seems to be the most likely to drop the ball in the first round, and who better to knock them out than their hated rivals up in New York?

Most Likely First Round Winners

1. San Antonio over Utah - 89.4%
2. Oklahoma City over Dallas - 79.5%
2. Chicago over Philadelphia - 79.5%
4. Indiana over Orlando - 71.5%

The Spurs just completed their third double-digit winning streak of the season, which is especially impressive considering that the season was shortened by 16 games. It's also worth noting that the first two streaks ended by choice, with the Spurs choosing to rest their stars each time a winning streak reached 11, but don't expect that to happen again. The Jazz already got their free victory from the Spurs this month. Orlando is the worst team in the playoffs, thanks to Dwight Howard's injury, but I'm not sure they were really that good with him either, because of all the internal problems he's caused with trade demands and trying to get rid of his coach. Look for the Pacers to win that series easily.

Most Likely to Make Conference Finals

1. San Antonio - 73.7%
2. Chicago - 59.5%
3. Oklahoma City - 57.4%
4. Miami - 42.5%
5. Indiana - 29.9%
6. Denver - 24.1%
7. New York - 20.7%
8. Boston - 16.1%
9. Atlanta - 15.9%
10. LA Clippers - 12.6%
11. LA Lakers - 10.5%
12. Memphis - 9.9%
13. Philadelphia - 8.5%
14. Dallas - 8.0%
15. Orlando - 6.8%
16. Utah - 3.9%

The top seeds are the most likely to make it to the conference finals, but Denver could surprise some people out West coming out of the #6 spot, while the East is full of teams that could potentially pull an upset, including the surprising star-free Pacers, the big-man-heavy Knicks, and the experienced Celtics. This is one of the first times in recent memory where the Eastern Conference is the more wide-open conference.

Most Likely the Make the NBA Finals

1. San Antonio - 54.0%
2. Chicago - 43.8%
3. Oklahoma City - 25.4%
4. Miami - 19.0%
5. Indiana - 10.2%
6. Boston - 7.9%
7. Atlanta - 7.5%
8. Denver - 7.1%
9. New York - 7.0%
10. LA Clippers - 5.2%
11. Memphis - 3.6%
12. Philadelphia - 3.5%
13. LA Lakers - 2.1%
14. Dallas - 1.5%
15. Orlando - 1.2%
16. Utah - 1.1%

Other than the top 4, the only team that has a strong chance of making the Finals is Indiana. The top 4 teams have all been ranked among my top 5 teams for over 2 months, and it's unlikely that you won't see some pairing of them in the Finals this year.

Most Likely Champions

1. San Antonio - 37.3%
2. Chicago - 24.0%
3. Oklahoma City - 14.4%
4. Miami - 6.9%
5. Indiana - 2.8%
5. Denver - 2.8%
7. Boston - 2.3%
8. Atlanta - 2.1%
9. LA Clippers - 2.0%
10. New York - 1.9%
11. Memphis - 1.3%

The other 5 teams have no chance at winning and are not even worth mentioning, except for the fact that one of them is West #3 seed Los Angeles and another is the defending champion Dallas Mavericks.

Finals Matchup Odds

Dallas vs. Miami rematch - 0.3%
Lakers vs. Celtics - 0.2%

Not gonna happen.

2 Former MVP's - 40.7% (James, Nowitzki, Bryant, Duncan, Garnett, Rose)

It's amazing that each of these players is still pretty relevant. The only former MVP to miss the playoffs this year was Steve Nash.

Former Scoring Leaders - 7.3% (Durant, James, Wade, Bryant, McGrady)

Did you even know McGrady was still in the league? Apparently he's averaging 5 points per game off the bench for Atlanta.

Carmelo past vs. Carmelo present - 0.5%

The most interesting thing here is that the Nuggets, a team with no stars, has a better chance of getting there than the Knicks, with their two high-priced superstars.

Former Rebounding Leaders - 0.0%

The only rebounding champ who will be in the playoffs is Garnett, because Howard is out with an injury, and Kevin Love and Ben Wallace play on crappy teams.

Former Assist Leaders - 1.1% (Kidd, Andre Miller, Rondo, Paul)

Wouldn't Rondo vs. Paul be a great point guard matchup in the Finals? Two great little guards who fill up the stat sheet facing off would be awesome.

Former Finals MVP's - 15.4% (Pierce, Nowitzki, Bryant, Duncan, Parker, Wade)

It's very interesting that each of these players is still with the team where they won the award, and none has even played for another NBA team. Is that a bad omen for LeBron?

Playoff Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

First Round

Bulls over 76ers in 5
Celtics over Hawks in 6
Pacers over Magic in 5
Heat over Knicks in 7
Spurs over Jazz in 5
Clippers over Grizzlies in 6
Nuggets over Lakers in 6
Thunder over Mavericks in 5

Second Round

Bulls over Celtics in 5
Heat over Pacers in 7
Spurs over Clippers in 5
Thunder over Nuggets in 5

Conference Finals

Bulls over Heat in 5
Spurs over Thunder in 5

NBA Finals

Spurs over Bulls in 7

Tim Duncan pulls into a tie with Kobe Bryant as the active player with the most rings and joins Kareem, Havlicek, Horry, and Parish as the only players to win championships at least 13 years apart.

Top 100 NBA Players: #11

Hakeem Olajuwon

(Kalb: #16, Simmons: #10, BBR: #9)

Hakeem Olajuwon is undoubtedly one of the greatest centers of all time and easily the best modern defensive center the NBA has seen. He is the best player who was not born as a United States citizen, and he peaked at exactly the right time, which allowed him to win a couple of championships and cement his place as one of the all-time greats.

Hakeem grew up primarily playing soccer in his native Nigeria, but when he was introduced to basketball as a teenager, he knew he had found his calling in life. He was only offered a spot on one college team, at the University of Houston, and after a couple of years training with local pro and NBA MVP Moses Malone, Olajuwon led the Cougars to two consecutive national championship games before being drafted by the Houston Rockets as the #1 pick in the NBA Draft, two spots ahead of Michael Jordan.

The Rockets started seeing success pretty quickly, making it to the NBA Finals in Hakeem's second season, where they lost to the Boston Celtics, whose 1986 team is regarded as one of the greatest teams in history. It looked like the Rockets were going to be a force for years to come, but because of a series of injuries to Ralph Sampson and their inability to get any decent players to play with Olajuwon, Houston suffered through several disappointing seasons.

Everything finally came together in 1993-94, beginning with the retirement of Michael Jordan in the offseason. Olajuwon took advantage of the hole left at the top of the league and had one of the most impressive seasons in history, becoming the only player ever to win the regular season MVP, Finals MVP, and Defensive Player of the Year Award in the same season.

The next year, things didn't look quite as good, with David Robinson and the Spurs dominating the regular season and Olajuwon dealing with some health issues near the end of the year, but with a late-season trade that brought college teammate Clyde Drexler to town, the Rockets were able to become the lowest-seeded team in history to win the NBA Finals, and Olajuwon repeated as Finals MVP.

Olajuwon is well-known as a great shot-blocker, and he still holds the record for most shots blocked in a career, although they have only been recorded for half of the league's history. Not only was he great at blocking shots, he was always among the leaders in steals as well, and in 1989 he became the only player in history to record more than 200 blocks and 200 steals in the same season. In fact, there have only been 8 seasons in which a player reached 150-150, and four of those belong to Olajuwon. He is definitely one of the greatest defensive players of all time.

Olajuwon was also great on the offensive end of the court, averaging over 20 points per game for 13 consecutive seasons to start his career, and his moves in the low post have become legendary, especially his patented "Dream Shake," which involved numerous fakes and spins and allowed him to get a ton of easy shots near the hoop. He now hosts a camp each summer where he teaches footwork in the paint, and many NBA stars have trained with him, including Yao Ming, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James.

What really made Olajuwon great is that he stepped up his game when it mattered most, especially against the toughest competition. During his two championship seasons, he outplayed David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal, and Patrick Ewing in the playoffs, and also beat teams led by Karl Malone and Charles Barkley. When Robinson won the regular season MVP in 1995, Olajuwon made a point of completely dismantling him in the Western Conference Finals, and Robinson was never the same player again.

The thing that held him back from making the all-time top 10 was that his three-year peak was relatively short for a great player, and happened to coincide nicely with Jordan's first retirement, then abruptly ended when Jordan returned. He played in an era with many other great centers, and he was the best of any of them during his peak years, but he was only one of the top 5 players in the league for 5 seasons, which was a relatively short period, especially when compared to the players that make up my top 10.

Hakeem Olajuwon was only the best player in the NBA for one season, while LeBron has already done it 6 times, but Hakeem has a couple of advantages over James. One is that he has won a couple of NBA Championships as the best player on his team, while LeBron has lost a couple of NBA Finals as his team's best player. Olajuwon also made one other trip to the penultimate series, so he also holds the edge in Finals appearances. The other thing that puts Olajuwon ahead is that he had a very long career, and was among the NBA's best for the majority of it, so LeBron needs to keep up his current level of play for a little longer in order to pass the best foreign player ever.

Top 100 NBA Players: #12

LeBron James

(Simmons: #20, BBR: #19)

LeBron James is the third-youngest player in this entire list, yet he has somehow risen to #12 already, and the sky is the limit for him, whether you are a fan of his or not. Many try to say that LeBron is not that great, that he'll never be as great as Michael Jordan, but there are problems with that reasoning.

People say that Jordan was greater because he won 6 titles, and LeBron has yet to win one. The problem is that we are comparing 1990's Jordan with 2000's LeBron, when we should be comparing current LeBron with 1980's Jordan. At the end of last season, when these rankings were created, LeBron James was 26 years old. Here is a comparison of the career accomplishments and statistics of Jordan and LeBron at age 26:

Jordan - 6 playoffs, 2 conference finals, 0 NBA Finals, 1 MVP, 3 years as best player in the league
James - 6 playoffs, 3 conference finals, 2 NBA Finals, 2 MVP, 6 years as best player in the league

Jordan - 32.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 6.0 ast, 2.8 stl, 1.1 blk, .516 FG%, .282 3P%, .848 FT%
James - 27.7 pts, 7.1 reb, 7.0 ast, 1.7 stl, 0.8 blk, .479 FG%, .329 3P%, .744 FT%

When looking at them statistically, LeBron has more triple-double potential, but Jordan was still a little better overall. When looking at their accomplishments at age 26, LeBron is the clear-cut winner, matching or beating Jordan in every category. The fact is that back in the 1980's, people were saying the same things about Jordan that they now say about LeBron, that he's great but he'll never lead his team to a title, that he doesn't know how to involve his teammates enough, etc. At age 27, Michael Jordan won his first of six NBA Championships. If LeBron wants to eventually be remembered as equal to or greater than Jordan, and potentially as the greatest player of all time, the titles have to start coming soon.

LeBron is the only player in history to own career averages of 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists per game, and is also the holder of many "youngest" records, including youngest #1 pick, youngest Rookie of the Year, youngest to record a triple-double, any many others. He is also one of 4 players in history to lead his team in all 5 of the major statistical categories for a full season, along with Dave Cowens, Scottie Pippen, and Kevin Garnett.

He has also been the best player in the entire league for 6 of the 8 seasons he has played so far, the only exceptions being his rookie year, when he was just All-Star material, and 2008, when Kobe finally decided he needed an MVP award. In 2005, at the age of 20, LeBron was already the best player in the NBA, becoming only the third player to be the best within his first two seasons, and the other two happen to be Kareem and Wilt.

Baylor was one of the greatest talents ever at the small forward position, and LeBron is following in his footsteps. Injuries slowed down Baylor's career trajectory prematurely, while James has been able to maintain his high level of play now for 7 full seasons. James has already been the best player on 2 Finals teams, while Baylor achieved the feat 4 times in a full career. The biggest thing that separates James from Baylor is that he has been the league's best player 6 times already, while Baylor was never the very best player at any point in his career.

NBA Rankings - 16 Apr

There are only two weeks left in the season, and the playoff races are heating up. Half of the playoff spots are still up for grabs, although the Eastern Conference race could be wrapped up much faster than the one in the West if Milwaukee doesn't rebound from its current slump. The West still has 7 teams vying for 5 spots, so each game holds a lot of importance. Here are the updated rankings, with rising teams in green and falling teams in red, and gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.

TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Oklahoma City (3-1) (44-16) -6.81 (2)
2. Chicago (3-0) (46-14) -6.23 (3)
3. San Antonio (2-2) (42-16) -5.91 (1)
4. Miami (2-2) (42-17) -5.28 (4)

5. LA Clippers (3-1) (37-23) -2.50 (7)
6. Boston (4-1) (36-25) -2.48 (6)
7. New York (2-2) (31-29) -2.45 (5)
8. Philadelphia (2-1) (31-28) -2.16 (10)
9. Memphis (3-2) (35-25) -1.99 (8)
10. LA Lakers (4-0) (39-22) -1.93 (12)
11. Indiana (4-0) (38-22) -1.92 (9)

12. Dallas (3-1) (34-27) -1.12 (15)
13. Denver (3-1) (33-27) -1.01 (19)
14. Atlanta (1-2) (35-25) -0.85 (13)
15. Phoenix (2-2) (31-29) -0.76 (16)
16. Houston (1-3) (32-28) -0.34 (11)
17. Utah (2-2) (31-30) -0.09 (18)
18. Portland (1-3) (28-33) 0.36 (20)
19. Milwaukee (1-3) (29-31) 0.39 (14)
20. Orlando (2-2) (35-25) 0.44 (17)

21. Minnesota (0-4) (25-36) 2.78 (21)
22. New Orleans (3-1) (18-42) 3.30 (24)
23. Toronto (2-2) (22-39) 3.60 (23)
24. Golden State (0-4) (22-37) 3.64 (22)

25. Detroit (1-3) (22-38) 6.18 (26)
26. Sacramento (1-3) (20-41) 6.20 (25)
27. New Jersey (1-2) (22-39) 6.43 (27)

28. Washington (2-2) (14-46) 7.42 (28)

29. Cleveland (2-3) (20-39) 8.43 (29)

30. Charlotte (0-5) (7-52) 14.54 (30)

Playoff Seeding Predictions

Each team is listed with its projected final record, and the number of games different that projection is from last week, with teams that have improved in the last week in green and falling teams in red. Most teams should finish within two games of the current projection.

Eastern Conference

1. Chicago (51-15) +1

2. Miami (47-19) -1

3. Indiana (42-24) +1

4. Boston (39-27) +1

5. Atlanta (39-27)
6. Orlando (38-28) -1

7. New York (35-31)
8. Philadelphia (35-31)

9. Milwaukee (32-34) -2

The race has pretty much been decided already in the East, with two pairs of teams that could still switch spots with each other, with no huge difference in the quality of team they will face in the first round. Milwaukee's collapse this week has pretty much knocked them out of the race, but since they are not mathematically eliminated, I'll keep them here for at least this week. New York owns the tiebreaker over Philadelphia, which gives them the chance to play Miami in the first round.

Western Conference

1. San Antonio (48-18) -1
2. Oklahoma City (48-18)

3. LA Lakers (42-24) +3
4. LA Clippers (40-26) +1
5. Memphis (39-27)

6. Dallas (37-29) +2
7. Denver (36-30) +1
8. Houston (35-31) -1
9. Phoenix (34-32) +1
10. Utah (34-32) +1

San Antonio owns the tiebreaker over Oklahoma City, and since both have the same number of losses today, the Spurs have the advantage. The Lakers are pulling away from the Clippers and Grizzlies and have nearly become the first team in the West to lock down its seeding. The bottom 5 teams are closer than ever, with only Dallas looking strong enough to say they are safely in, though they could end up in any of the bottom 3 spots.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Tuesday

Indiana at Philadelphia - 76ers by 3
Cleveland at Detroit - Pistons by 5
Memphis at Minnesota - Grizzlies by 2
Boston at New York - Knicks by 3
San Antonio at LA Lakers - Spurs by 1

Wednesday

Philadelphia at Cleveland - 76ers by 8
Milwaukee at Washington - Bucks by 4
Chicago at Charlotte - Bulls by 18
Detroit at Atlanta - Hawks by 10
Toronto at Miami - Heat by 12
New York at New Jersey - Knicks by 6
Orlando at Boston - Celtics by 6
New Orleans at Memphis - Grizzlies by 8
Houston at Dallas - Mavericks by 4
LA Clippers at Denver - Nuggets by 1
Utah at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2
Oklahoma City at Phoenix - Thunder by 3
San Antonio at Sacramento - Spurs by 9
LA Lakers at Golden State - Lakers by 3

Thursday

Milwaukee at Indiana - Pacers by 5
Minnesota at Detroit - Timberwolves by 1
Houston at New Orleans - Rockets by 1
Chicago at Miami - Heat by 2
LA Clippers at Phoenix - Suns by 1

Friday

Boston at Atlanta - Hawks by 1
Memphis at Charlotte - Grizzlies by 14
New York at Cleveland - Knicks by 8
Golden State at Dallas - Mavericks by 7
LA Lakers at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Oklahoma City at Sacramento - Thunder by 10

Saturday

Denver at Phoenix - Suns by 3
Philadelphia at Indiana - Pacers by 2
Washington at Miami - Heat by 15
Dallas at Chicago - Bulls by 8
Golden State at Houston - Rockets by 7
Portland at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5
New Jersey at Milwaukee - Bucks by 9
Orlando at Utah - Jazz by 3

Sunday

New York at Atlanta - Hawks by 1
Oklahoma City at LA Lakers - Thunder by 2
Toronto at Detroit - Pistons by 1
Houston at Miami - Heat by 8
Sacramento at Charlotte - Kings by 6
Golden State at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 4
Cleveland at San Antonio - Spurs by 17
Orlando at Denver - Nuggets by 4
New Orleans at LA Clippers - Clippers by 9

Prediction Results

NBA: 32-18 (.640) 419-217 overall (.659)
Upsets: 3-5 (.375) 62-51 overall (.549)

NBA MVP Rankings - 14 Apr

There are only two weeks left in the NBA season, and the MVP race is as close now as it has been all season, so the next two weeks will be extremely important in deciding which player most deserves the award. It's probably a two-man race at this point, but there are several other players who should at least be mentioned for their play this season. Players who have moved up since my last rankings are in green, and falling players are in red.

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James - MIA - 26.8 pts, 7.9 reb, 6.4 ast, 1.9 stl, .530 FG%, .363 3P%, .763 FT%

James has been picking up his game this month, but the Heat have not been following suit. Miami has now lost 6 of their last 12 and appear to be locked into the #2 seed in the East yet again, which means that they will have to beat the Bulls in Chicago in order to advance to the Finals again. LeBron's 41 points against Philadelphia were a season high and led Miami to a very important victory over a potential first-round foe.

2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 27.6 pts, 7.9 reb, 3.5 ast, 1.2 blk, 1.4 stl, .500 FG%, .377 3P%, .856 FT%

Just when LeBron and Miami started to look beatable, Oklahoma City also went into a lull, losing 4 of their past 7 games and actually losing their lead in the West for a day. The Thunder, unlike the Heat, rebounded and regained their lead in the conference, and Durant could end up as the MVP favorite if they win the West, and especially if they are able to overtake Chicago for the league's best record.

3. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 24.1 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.4 ast, 1.7 stl, .466 FG%, .328 3P%, .819 FT%

Westbrook does not have much of a chance of being named MVP, especially since most people recognize that Durant is the Thunder's best player, but the great season he's had may end up being the thing that prevents his teammate from winning it, because he may siphon off just enough votes to throw the voting in LeBron's favor.

4. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 28.1 pts, 5.4 reb, 4.6 ast, 1.2 stl, .430 FG%, .845 FT%

Kobe's candidacy took a hit with him missing four games with a shin injury, especially since the Lakers seem to be playing better in his absence. They have won 3 of their four games, with the only loss coming against a hot Suns team that it fighting for its life right now, and impressive wins over Denver and San Antonio without Bryant in the lineup.

5. Blake Griffin - LAC - 20.6 pts, 10.9 reb, 3.1 ast, .543 FG%, .524 FT%

Griffin hasn't been at his most effective lately scoring points, but he's been doing the other things well, missing fewer shots (except at the free throw line, where he's looking like Shaq), grabbing more rebounds, and turning the ball over less. The Clippers have also moved into the #4 slot in the West, and with the tiebreaker over Memphis in hand, they will probably have home court advantage in the first round.

6. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 22.5 pts, 4.9 reb, 4.7 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.7 stl, .497 FG%, .788 FT%

Wade has not been at full strength lately, and trying to play through the pain seems to be hurting his team. In the three games he has sat out this month, Miami is 3-0, with an average margin of victory above 17, but they are only 1-4 in the five games he has played, with all four losses coming against teams that will be in the playoffs, so if Miami wants to prove that it's better than the rest of the league, it needs to beat the playoff teams more than 20% of the time.

7. Pau Gasol - LAL - 17.3 pts, 10.5 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.4 blk, .506 FG%, .770 FT%

Pau is stepping up his game in April, and has played even better with Kobe out of the lineup, taking his season average from 17 before this month to 18.5 in the first four games of the month to 22.5 in four games without Bryant, and the Lakers have strengthened their hold on the #3 spot in part due to the strong play of the Spaniard.

8. Kevin Love - MIN - 26.0 pts, 13.3 reb, 2.0 ast, .448 FG%, .372 3P%, .824 FT%

Minnesota's season is pretty much over, with the team nearly eliminated from playoff contention already, and Love's season may be done as well due to a concussion he suffered against Denver on Wednesday. Even though the Timberwolves will not make the playoffs, Love has had a great season, joining only Shaq and Hakeem in the past 25 years as players who have averaged at least 26 points and 13 rebounds for a full season.

9. Chris Paul - LAC - 19.3 pts, 3.5 reb, 8.9 ast, 2.5 stl, .479 FG%, .368 3P%, .856 FT%

The biggest difference in the LA Clippers this year is Chris Paul, who came to the team right before the season began and led them to a winning season, a rarity for one of the worst franchises in history. Paul showed what makes him so great last Saturday against Sacramento, when he scored 19 points, handed out 15 assists, and came up with 7 steals while making all 6 of his free throws in the victory over the Kings.

10. Andrew Bynum - LAL - 18.6 pts, 12.1 reb, 1.4 ast, 2.0 blk, .564 FG%, .680 FT%

Bynum looked like he was headed out of the MVP rankings after spraining his ankle and sitting out a game and a half, but he has come back strong, grabbing 30 rebounds against San Antonio on Wednesday, the most any player has earned in any game this season, and the Lakers were able to cool off the surging Spurs. The following game, against a Nuggets team that is right on the edge of missing the playoffs, Bynum stepped up with 30 points and the Lakers won their third in a row.

Dropping Out

Dwight Howard - ORL

Honorable Mention

Josh Smith - ATL
Carlos Boozer - CHI
Dwight Howard - ORL
Tony Parker - SAS
James Harden - OKC
Chris Bosh - MIA
Paul Pierce - BOS

Top 100 NBA Players: #13

Elgin Baylor

(Kalb: #13, Simmons: #14, BBR: #20)

If you don't know who Elgin Baylor is, you're not alone. He is easily the least recognizable or remembered player among the top 20, and a big part of that is the era in which he played. Games were not televised, so the only chance fans got to see him was live at the game. Baylor is also one of only three players remaining on this list that never won a championship, but it isn't for lack of trying.

Elgin played 12 full seasons in the NBA, with 8 of those seasons ending in the NBA Finals, 7 against the Boston Celtics. Baylor was the best player on 4 of those teams, #2 on two others, and still the third best player on the team in his 12th season in the NBA. The players who ranked ahead of him on those teams were Jerry West and Wilt Chamberlain, so it's not like he was taking a back seat to a flash in the pan. There was one other season in which the Lakers lost to Boston in the Finals with Baylor sitting on the bench with a knee injury.

Baylor was not only a good player on a good team for all those years, he was one of the top 10 players in the league for 10 of his 12 full seasons. As a rookie, he was already the second-best player in the NBA, behind only Bob Pettit, and he only got better from there. Even though he was only 6-5, he averaged 24.9 points, 15.0 rebounds, and 4.1 assists that season, and he was known as the first player to play above the rim, showing hang time that had never been seen before.

His fourth season was 1961-62, the season of incomprehensible stats, and Baylor's numbers that season were yet another example. He had been called to active military duty during the season, so he was only able to play on weekends, but he still managed to participate in 48 games and average 38.3 points, 18.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, all during his weekend breaks from the military.

Baylor averaged over 24 points and 10 rebounds for 11 seasons, making him the greatest scorer/rebounder under 6-6 in league history, narrowly edging out Charles Barkley, another player who was never able to win a title. Baylor, however, may have allowed the Lakers to win a title. In 1971-72, he was returning from a major knee injury that had cost him almost a full season, and after nine games he felt that he was holding back a team that could be historically good, so he retired, and the very next game was the beginning of Los Angeles' record 33-game winning streak, and the Lakers also went on to win the title that season. There are not many players who would step aside in order to allow their team to reach their full potential, let alone one as great as Baylor, so that gesture was huge.

While Baylor did not win the championships that Russell did, mostly because of Russell, he did make it to the Finals 8 times, not far behind Russell's 12, and their careers covered almost the exactly same timeframe. Russell was a slightly better rebounder, but he was also at least 6 inches taller, so that's to be expected, but Baylor's worst scoring season was still 6 points per game better than Russell's best. What really puts Baylor ahead here is that he did more with less, since he took the Lakers to all those Finals with only one other star for the majority of his career, while Russell always had at least two, whether it was Cousy, Jones, or Havlicek helping him out.

NBA Rankings - 9 Apr

We're coming down the homestretch, and the three teams that have been sitting at the top for the entire season all seem to be shrinking away from the mantle of best team, so a team that has been there before many times over the past decade swooped in and took over the top spot for the first time this season, thanks to an 11-game winning streak, their second of the season. Here are this week's rankings, with rising teams in green, falling teams in red, and gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.

TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)

1. San Antonio (4-0) (40-14) -7.77 (4)

2. Oklahoma City (1-2) (41-15) -7.64 (1)

3. Chicago (1-1) (43-14) -7.30 (2)

4. Miami (3-1) (40-15) -6.89 (3)

5. New York (2-1) (29-27) -4.21 (6)

6. Boston (2-2) (32-24) -3.27 (10)

7. LA Clippers (2-1) (34-22) -3.13 (9)

8. Memphis (3-1) (32-23) -3.05 (11)

9. Indiana (3-1) (34-22) -2.93 (7)

10. Philadelphia (0-4) (29-27) -2.92 (5)

11. Houston (2-0) (31-25) -2.63 (15)

12. LA Lakers (2-2) (35-22) -2.30 (8)

13. Atlanta (3-0) (34-23) -2.19 (14)

14. Milwaukee (3-0) (28-28) -2.07 (13)

15. Dallas (1-2) (31-26) -1.91 (18)

16. Phoenix (3-1) (29-27) -1.65 (19)

17. Orlando (1-2) (33-23) -1.34 (12)

18. Utah (1-2) (29-28) -1.22 (17)

19. Denver (1-2) (30-26) -1.00 (16)

20. Portland (2-1) (27-30) -0.94 (20)

21. Minnesota (0-2) (25-32) 0.83 (21)

22. Golden State (2-2) (22-33) 1.53 (22)

23. Toronto (2-2) (20-37) 2.94 (23)

24. New Orleans (2-1) (15-41) 3.18 (24)

25. Sacramento (0-4) (19-38) 3.85 (26)

26. Detroit (2-2) (21-35) 4.11 (25)

27. New Jersey (2-2) (21-37) 5.22 (28)

28. Washington (0-3) (12-44) 5.70 (27)

29. Cleveland (1-3) (18-36) 7.24 (29)

30. Charlotte (0-4) (7-47) 11.87 (30)

Playoff Seeding Predictions

Each team is listed with its predicted final record, along with the change in that prediction since Friday, when I posted my original predictions.

Eastern Conference

1. Chicago (50-16)

2. Miami (48-18) -1

3. Indiana (41-25) +1

5. Atlanta (39-27)

6. Orlando (39-27) +1

4. Boston (38-28) +2

7. New York (35-31)

8. Philadelphia (35-31) -1

9. Milwaukee (34-32) +1

Boston made a huge move this week, losing to the top team in each conference, then following that up with blowout victories over Indiana and Philadelphia, who had both been predicted to be among the top 4 seeds entering the playoffs. This put Boston into the #4 spot, where they will earn home court in the first round, and it also made them the only team in the league that appears to be locked into its seeding at this point.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, has lost 4 in a row and is in danger of not even making the playoffs just three days after I put them in as the probable Atlantic Division champion. Among their four losses was a blowout at home against Toronto, a team that has had nothing to play for since All-Star weekend, and the 76ers, who looked so strong early in the season, may need to win their next three in a row just to avoid missing the playoffs altogether.

Western Conference

1. San Antonio (49-17) +1

2. Oklahoma City (48-18) 

3. LA Lakers (39-27) -2

4. LA Clippers (39-27) 

5. Memphis (39-27) +1

6. Houston (36-30) +1

7. Dallas (35-31) -1

8. Denver (35-31)

9. Phoenix (33-33)

10. Utah (33-33)

The biggest change here is that the Lakers, Clippers, and Grizzlies are now in a dead heat for the final two top seeds, with the Lakers getting the advantage due to their 4-2 record against the other 2 this season. Tonight's Clippers-Grizzlies game will be very important, but probably only in determining which is at #4 at the end of the season.

Houston beat both the Bulls and the Lakers this week, and although they are probably about as high as they will get in the standings now, their chances of making the playoffs are looking pretty secure now. It's the defending champs that now have to worry about missing out completely, with the Suns and Jazz both sitting patiently waiting to see which team is ready to fall.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Tuesday

Charlotte at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 8

Boston at Miami - Heat by 7

Orlando at Washington - Magic by 4

Philadelphia at New Jersey - 76ers by 5

Sacramento at Dallas - Mavericks by 9

New York at Chicago - Bulls by 6

Wednesday

Indiana at Cleveland - Pacers by 7

Philadelphia at Toronto - 76ers by 3

Atlanta at Boston - Celtics by 4

Phoenix at Memphis - Grizzlies by 4

Sacramento at New Orleans - Hornets by 4

Utah at Houston - Rockets by 4

New York at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1

LA Clippers at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7

LA Lakers at San Antonio - Spurs by 8

Minnesota at Denver - Nuggets by 5

Golden State at Portland - Trail Blazers by 5

Thursday

Detroit at Charlotte - Pistons by 5

Miami at Chicago - Bulls by 3

LA Clippers at Minnesota - Clippers by 1

Memphis at San Antonio - Spurs by 8

Dallas at Golden State - Mavericks by 1

Friday

Cleveland at Indiana - Pacers by 13

Atlanta at Orlando - Magic by 2

New Jersey at Philadelphia - 76ers by 11

Boston at Toronto - Celtics by 3

Charlotte at Miami - Heat by 22

Washington at New York - Knicks by 13

Phoenix at Houston - Rockets by 4

Utah at New Orleans - Jazz by 2

Milwaukee at Detroit - Bucks by 3

Sacramento at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 14

Denver at LA Lakers - Lakers by 4

Dallas at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2

Saturday

Golden State at LA Clippers - Clippers by 8

Cleveland at Washington - Wizards by 4

Boston at New Jersey - Celtics by 6

Oklahoma City at Minnesota - Thunder by 6

Utah at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5

Indiana at Milwaukee - Bucks by 2

Phoenix at San Antonio - Spurs by 9

Sunday

Miami at New York - Knicks by 1

Dallas at LA Lakers - Lakers by 3

Toronto at Atlanta - Hawks by 8

Orlando at Cleveland - Magic by 6

Chicago at Detroit - Bulls by 9

Portland at Sacramento - Trail Blazers by 2

Boston at Charlotte - Celtics by 12

Memphis at New Orleans - Grizzlies by 3

Houston at Denver - Nuggets by 1

Prediction Results

NBA: 35-16 (.686) 387-199 overall (.660)

Upsets: 4-1 (.800) 59-46 overall (.562)