Kentucky just became only the second team to win the tournament after being named the top seed beforehand, so there isn't much debate as to which team belongs at #1. But where do all the other teams fit? There were a lot of teams that lost earlier than expected (Missouri), and several that went deeper than we thought (Louisville), so ranking the teams is a little difficult, but I'll let you know where each team stands after every game for the entire season is taken into account. I've included each team's overall record, final season result, and pre-tournament ranking, and also put gaps between groups of teams to show different levels of performance.
TW. Team (Overall) Rating (Final Result) (PTR)
1. Kentucky (37-2) -20.09 (Champion) (2)
2. Ohio State (31-8) -18.58 (Final Four) (1)
3. North Carolina (32-6) -17.27 (Elite Eight) (3)
4. Kansas (32-6) -16.68 (Championship Game) (5)
5. Michigan State (29-8) -16.55 (Sweet 16) (4)
6. Syracuse (34-3) -15.98 (Elite Eight) (6)
7. Wichita State (27-6) -14.76 (Round of 64) (8)
8. Missouri (30-5) -14.68 (Round of 64) (7)
9. Memphis (26-9) -14.62 (Round of 64) (9)
10. Wisconsin (26-10) -14.59 (Sweet 16) (10)
11. Florida (26-11) -13.86 (Elite Eight) (12)
12. Louisville (30-10) -13.08 (Final Four) (21)
13. Vanderbilt (25-11) -12.66 (Round of 32) (16)
14. Georgetown (24-9) -12.64 (Round of 32) (14)
15. Indiana (27-9) -12.504 (Sweet 16) (19)
16. Marquette (27-8) -12.502 (Sweet 16) (13)
17. Duke (27-7) -12.23 (Round of 64) (11)
18. Baylor (30-8) -12.05 (Elite Eight) (18)
19. New Mexico (28-7) -11.92 (Round of 32) (17)
20. Saint Louis (26-8) -11.87 (Round of 32) (22)
21. Belmont (27-8) -11.70 (Round of 64) (15)
22. Florida State (25-10) -10.66 (Round of 32) (20)
23. Gonzaga (26-7) -10.05 (Round of 32) (NR)
24. Kansas State (22-11) -9.98 (Round of 32) (23)
25. Cincinnati (26-11) -9.80 (Sweet 16) (NR)
Dropping Out
Alabama (21-12) -9.49 (Round of 64) (25)
Creighton (29-6) -8.77 (Round of 32) (24)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big East - 5
Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 4
SEC - 3
ACC - 3
MVC - 1
CUSA - 1
MWC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Atl Sun - 1
WCC - 1
Louisville nearly pulled off the same feat as Connecticut did last season, winning the Big East tournament despite being seeded pretty low, then making a run to the Final Four as a #4 seed. They didn't win the entire thing, but they did put on an impressive show over the past month, and two of the teams they beat are ranked in the top 11 today.
Gonzaga entered the top 25 for the first time all season, even though they only won one tournament game. That game was a blowout of West Virginia, and they followed it up with a very strong showing against Ohio State, my pre-tourney #1, so the Bulldogs have earned a spot in the final rankings of the season, which gave the West Coast Conference its only representative.
The other team that jumped into the final top 25 was Cincinnati, another team that lost to Ohio State. The Bearcats allowed the Big East to gain its fifth ranked team, putting them ahead of all other conferences for yet another season. Their only losses during the last month were to Louisville in the Big East title game and to Ohio State in the Sweet 16, with wins over Georgetown, Florida State, and Syracuse mixed in.
Duke ended up losing three of their final four games, including their loss to North Carolina in the season finale, their loss to Florida State in the ACC Tournament, and their loss to 15th-seed Lehigh in the NCAA Tournament. Even sadder is that the last loss took place in Duke's backyard, and another good regular season ended in disappointment.
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 50-17 (.746) 603-165 overall (.785)
Upsets: 5-2 (.714) 59-41 overall (.590)
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
NBA Rankings - 3 Apr
The Oklahoma City Thunder have beaten both of the top teams in the East within the past 10 days, which has caused a power shift among the top teams in the league. Either Chicago or Miami has held the top spot every week this season since January 22nd, but that streak has come to an end as the Thunder rolls through the West. Here are the current rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Oklahoma City (3-1) (40-13) -6.71 (3)
2. Chicago (2-3) (42-13) -6.68 (1)
3. Miami (2-2) (37-14) -6.38 (2)
4. San Antonio (3-0) (36-14) -5.47 (5)
5. Philadelphia (2-1) (29-23) -4.73 (4)
6. New York (3-1) (27-26) -2.95 (8)
7. Indiana (3-2) (31-21) -2.27 (6)
8. LA Lakers (3-1) (33-20) -2.22 (7)
9. LA Clippers (5-0) (32-21) -2.01 (13)
10. Boston (4-0) (30-22) -1.65 (17)
11. Memphis (3-1) (29-22) -1.46 (11)
12. Orlando (1-3) (32-21) -1.39 (9)
13. Milwaukee (3-2) (25-28) -1.33 (14)
14. Atlanta (1-3) (31-23) -1.02 (10)
15. Houston (3-2) (29-25) -0.72 (18)
16. Denver (3-1) (29-24) -0.48 (20)
17. Utah (2-3) (28-26) -0.38 (15)
18. Dallas (2-2) (30-24) -0.28 (12)
19. Phoenix (1-2) (26-26) 0.04 (16)
20. Portland (2-3) (25-29) 0.44 (21)
21. Minnesota (1-4) (25-30) 1.30 (19)
22. Golden State (0-4) (20-31) 3.53 (22)
23. Toronto (2-2) (18-35) 4.13 (23)
24. New Orleans (1-4) (13-40) 4.24 (25)
25. Detroit (3-1) (19-33) 4.79 (26)
26. Sacramento (2-3) (19-34) 4.79 (24)
27. Washington (1-4) (12-41) 5.73 (28)
28. New Jersey (3-1) (19-35) 6.19 (29)
29. Cleveland (0-4) (17-33) 7.26 (27)
30. Charlotte (0-4) (7-43) 12.47 (30)
Oklahoma City is the first Western Conference team to top my rankings this season, and they did it with a 6-game winning streak, which included wins over Chicago, Miami, and both Los Angeles teams, all by at least 9 points. A huge rematch with Miami is coming up tomorrow, and the Heat would desperately like to tie the season series.
Since Vinny Del Negro received a vote of confidence from Clippers management, the Clippers have gone on a tear, winning 6 in a row and beating 5 potential West playoff foes in the process. They play the Lakers tomorrow night on national television, and a victory would pull the Staples Center foes into a tie with each other for the Pacific Division lead.
Boston's huge jump this week has a lot more to do with last night's win over Miami than with the other 4 wins in their current 5-game streak. Ho-hum victories over Charlotte and Washington don't impress anybody, but a 19-point beatdown of the sizzling Heat and a spot on top of the Atlantic Division for the first time all season have them feeling pretty good right now.
Orlando's hot streak ended this week with three straight losses to marginal playoff teams, but they are still in strong position for the playoffs in an Eastern Conference race that is pretty diluted after the top two teams. The Magic face both New York and Philadelphia this week on TV, and while both have been pretty good lately, they do have some flaws that could allow Orlando to rebound and start another winning streak.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
San Antonio at Cleveland - Spurs by 10
New York at Indiana - Pacers by 2
Charlotte at Toronto - Raptors by 11
Orlando at Detroit - Magic by 3
Philadelphia at Miami - Heat by 5
Golden State at Memphis - Grizzlies by 8
Phoenix at Sacramento - Suns by 2
New Jersey at LA Lakers - Lakers by 11
Wednesday
Toronto at Philadelphia - 76ers by 12
Indiana at Washington - Pacers by 5
Charlotte at Atlanta - Hawks by 16
San Antonio at Boston - Spurs by 1
Denver at New Orleans - Nuggets by 2
Oklahoma City at Miami - Heat by 3
Cleveland at Milwaukee - Bucks by 12
Golden State at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 5
Memphis at Dallas - Mavericks by 2
Phoenix at Utah - Jazz by 3
New Jersey at Portland - Trail Blazers by 9
LA Lakers vs. LA Clippers - Lakers by 1
Thursday
New York at Orlando - Magic by 1
Washington at Detroit - Pistons by 4
Boston at Chicago - Bulls by 8
LA Clippers at Sacramento - Clippers by 4
Friday
Oklahoma City at Indiana - Thunder by 2
Detroit at Atlanta - Hawks by 9
Memphis at Miami - Heat by 8
Washington at New Jersey - Nets by 2
Cleveland at Toronto - Raptors by 6
Portland at Dallas - Mavericks by 4
Charlotte at Milwaukee - Bucks by 17
New Orleans at San Antonio - Spurs by 13
Golden State at Utah - Jazz by 7
Phoenix at Denver - Nuggets by 3
Houston at LA Lakers - Lakers by 4
Saturday
Boston at Indiana - Pacers by 4
Minnesota at New Orleans - Timberwolves by 1
Orlando at Philadelphia - 76ers by 6
Dallas at Memphis - Grizzlies by 4
Atlanta at Charlotte - Hawks by 11
Portland at Milwaukee - Bucks by 5
LA Lakers at Phoenix - Suns by 1
Denver at Golden State - Nuggets by 1
Sacramento at LA Clippers - Clippers by 10
Sunday
Chicago at New York - Bulls by 1
Philadelphia at Boston - 76ers by 1
Detroit at Miami - Heat by 14
Cleveland at New Jersey - Nets by 4
Utah at San Antonio - Spurs by 8
Toronto at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 14
Houston at Sacramento - Rockets by 3
Prediction Results
NBA: 41-17 (.707) 352-183 overall (.658)
Upsets: 6-4 (.600) 55-45 overall (.550)
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Oklahoma City (3-1) (40-13) -6.71 (3)
2. Chicago (2-3) (42-13) -6.68 (1)
3. Miami (2-2) (37-14) -6.38 (2)
4. San Antonio (3-0) (36-14) -5.47 (5)
5. Philadelphia (2-1) (29-23) -4.73 (4)
6. New York (3-1) (27-26) -2.95 (8)
7. Indiana (3-2) (31-21) -2.27 (6)
8. LA Lakers (3-1) (33-20) -2.22 (7)
9. LA Clippers (5-0) (32-21) -2.01 (13)
10. Boston (4-0) (30-22) -1.65 (17)
11. Memphis (3-1) (29-22) -1.46 (11)
12. Orlando (1-3) (32-21) -1.39 (9)
13. Milwaukee (3-2) (25-28) -1.33 (14)
14. Atlanta (1-3) (31-23) -1.02 (10)
15. Houston (3-2) (29-25) -0.72 (18)
16. Denver (3-1) (29-24) -0.48 (20)
17. Utah (2-3) (28-26) -0.38 (15)
18. Dallas (2-2) (30-24) -0.28 (12)
19. Phoenix (1-2) (26-26) 0.04 (16)
20. Portland (2-3) (25-29) 0.44 (21)
21. Minnesota (1-4) (25-30) 1.30 (19)
22. Golden State (0-4) (20-31) 3.53 (22)
23. Toronto (2-2) (18-35) 4.13 (23)
24. New Orleans (1-4) (13-40) 4.24 (25)
25. Detroit (3-1) (19-33) 4.79 (26)
26. Sacramento (2-3) (19-34) 4.79 (24)
27. Washington (1-4) (12-41) 5.73 (28)
28. New Jersey (3-1) (19-35) 6.19 (29)
29. Cleveland (0-4) (17-33) 7.26 (27)
30. Charlotte (0-4) (7-43) 12.47 (30)
Oklahoma City is the first Western Conference team to top my rankings this season, and they did it with a 6-game winning streak, which included wins over Chicago, Miami, and both Los Angeles teams, all by at least 9 points. A huge rematch with Miami is coming up tomorrow, and the Heat would desperately like to tie the season series.
Since Vinny Del Negro received a vote of confidence from Clippers management, the Clippers have gone on a tear, winning 6 in a row and beating 5 potential West playoff foes in the process. They play the Lakers tomorrow night on national television, and a victory would pull the Staples Center foes into a tie with each other for the Pacific Division lead.
Boston's huge jump this week has a lot more to do with last night's win over Miami than with the other 4 wins in their current 5-game streak. Ho-hum victories over Charlotte and Washington don't impress anybody, but a 19-point beatdown of the sizzling Heat and a spot on top of the Atlantic Division for the first time all season have them feeling pretty good right now.
Orlando's hot streak ended this week with three straight losses to marginal playoff teams, but they are still in strong position for the playoffs in an Eastern Conference race that is pretty diluted after the top two teams. The Magic face both New York and Philadelphia this week on TV, and while both have been pretty good lately, they do have some flaws that could allow Orlando to rebound and start another winning streak.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
San Antonio at Cleveland - Spurs by 10
New York at Indiana - Pacers by 2
Charlotte at Toronto - Raptors by 11
Orlando at Detroit - Magic by 3
Philadelphia at Miami - Heat by 5
Golden State at Memphis - Grizzlies by 8
Phoenix at Sacramento - Suns by 2
New Jersey at LA Lakers - Lakers by 11
Wednesday
Toronto at Philadelphia - 76ers by 12
Indiana at Washington - Pacers by 5
Charlotte at Atlanta - Hawks by 16
San Antonio at Boston - Spurs by 1
Denver at New Orleans - Nuggets by 2
Oklahoma City at Miami - Heat by 3
Cleveland at Milwaukee - Bucks by 12
Golden State at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 5
Memphis at Dallas - Mavericks by 2
Phoenix at Utah - Jazz by 3
New Jersey at Portland - Trail Blazers by 9
LA Lakers vs. LA Clippers - Lakers by 1
Thursday
New York at Orlando - Magic by 1
Washington at Detroit - Pistons by 4
Boston at Chicago - Bulls by 8
LA Clippers at Sacramento - Clippers by 4
Friday
Oklahoma City at Indiana - Thunder by 2
Detroit at Atlanta - Hawks by 9
Memphis at Miami - Heat by 8
Washington at New Jersey - Nets by 2
Cleveland at Toronto - Raptors by 6
Portland at Dallas - Mavericks by 4
Charlotte at Milwaukee - Bucks by 17
New Orleans at San Antonio - Spurs by 13
Golden State at Utah - Jazz by 7
Phoenix at Denver - Nuggets by 3
Houston at LA Lakers - Lakers by 4
Saturday
Boston at Indiana - Pacers by 4
Minnesota at New Orleans - Timberwolves by 1
Orlando at Philadelphia - 76ers by 6
Dallas at Memphis - Grizzlies by 4
Atlanta at Charlotte - Hawks by 11
Portland at Milwaukee - Bucks by 5
LA Lakers at Phoenix - Suns by 1
Denver at Golden State - Nuggets by 1
Sacramento at LA Clippers - Clippers by 10
Sunday
Chicago at New York - Bulls by 1
Philadelphia at Boston - 76ers by 1
Detroit at Miami - Heat by 14
Cleveland at New Jersey - Nets by 4
Utah at San Antonio - Spurs by 8
Toronto at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 14
Houston at Sacramento - Rockets by 3
Prediction Results
NBA: 41-17 (.707) 352-183 overall (.658)
Upsets: 6-4 (.600) 55-45 overall (.550)
Monday, March 26, 2012
NBA Rankings - 26 Mar
For the second consecutive week, Miami lost a road game against a conference leader, and the result is that the Heat are no longer the top-ranked team in the league. That left the door open for the last two teams to beat Miami, and both moved up this week, but only one could be #1. Here are the updated rankings, counting all games through Sunday, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Chicago (3-0) (40-10) -6.88 (2)
2. Miami (3-1) (35-12) -6.19 (1)
3. Oklahoma City (4-1) (37-12) -4.76 (4)
4. Philadelphia (2-2) (27-22) -4.36 (3)
5. San Antonio (4-0) (33-14) -3.98 (5)
6. Indiana (3-1) (28-19) -1.46 (7)
7. LA Lakers (2-3) (30-19) -1.33 (6)
8. New York (3-1) (24-25) -1.15 (11)
9. Orlando (2-2) (31-18) -0.77 (9)
10. Atlanta (5-1) (30-20) -0.51 (10)
11. Memphis (2-3) (26-21) -0.17 (8)
12. Dallas (2-2) (28-22) 0.05 (15)
13. LA Clippers (2-3) (27-21) 0.40 (12)
14. Milwaukee (2-2) (22-26) 0.701 (17)
15. Utah (4-1) (26-23) 0.704 (18)
16. Phoenix (3-2) (25-24) 0.78 (21)
17. Boston (3-1) (26-22) 1.03 (19)
18. Houston (2-2) (26-23) 1.05 (20)
19. Minnesota (2-3) (24-26) 1.23 (16)
20. Denver (1-3) (26-23) 1.47 (13)
21. Portland (2-3) (23-26) 1.53 (14)
22. Golden State (2-3) (20-27) 2.69 (22)
23. Toronto (1-3) (16-33) 4.99 (23)
24. Sacramento (2-2) (17-31) 5.54 (27)
25. New Orleans (1-2) (12-36) 6.11 (25)
26. Detroit (0-4) (16-32) 6.16 (26)
27. Cleveland (1-4) (17-29) 6.21 (24)
28. Washington (1-4) (11-37) 7.77 (29)
29. New Jersey (1-3) (16-34) 8.11 (28)
30. Charlotte (0-3) (7-39) 13.68 (30)
Memphis would have fallen a lot farther without their road win against the Lakers last night, because the three games before were losses against struggling teams, Sacramento, Portland, and the Clippers. The lone win they had previously earned this week was against Washington, and a 5-point win over one of the league's worst teams at home is hardly something to brag about.
Utah's six-game winning streak ended last night in a quadruple-overtime loss to Atlanta, but before that, they had won games against both the Thunder and Lakers as they crept into the Western Conference playoff picture, replacing Denver among the top 8 teams. Their next five games are either against bad teams or struggling teams, so they could strengthen their position heading into April.
Phoenix has lost only 4 times since the All-Star Break, and three of those losses came on the road against top 10 teams, Oklahoma City, Orlando, and Miami. While none of their victories have been against the best teams, the quantity of wins has finally started to elevate them in the standings and the rankings, with the playoffs within reach.
The moment Ricky Rubio went down was the turning point in Minnesota's season, but not in a good way. At that point they were 21-19 and within a game of entering the playoff race, but since that fateful day they have won only 3 of 10 games and have fallen to 11th place in the West. While they are much improved over last year, it looks like this isn't the year they will break their playoff drought.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Monday
Miami at Indiana - Heat by 2
Detroit at Washington - Wizards by 2
Orlando at Toronto - Magic by 3
Boston at Charlotte - Celtics by 10
Utah at New Jersey - Jazz by 4
Milwaukee at New York - Knicks by 5
Denver at Chicago - Bulls by 12
Sacramento at Houston - Rockets by 8
New Orleans at LA Clippers - Clippers by 9
Tuesday
Cleveland at Philadelphia - 76ers by 14
Atlanta at Milwaukee - Bucks by 2
Minnesota at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5
Houston at Dallas - Mavericks by 4
San Antonio at Phoenix - Spurs by 2
Oklahoma City at Portland - Thunder by 3
LA Lakers at Golden State - Lakers by 1
Wednesday
Detroit at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 3
Orlando at New York - Knicks by 4
Denver at Toronto - Nuggets by 1
Minnesota at Charlotte - Timberwolves by 9
Chicago at Atlanta - Bulls by 3
Utah at Boston - Celtics by 3
Indiana at New Jersey - Pacers by 7
San Antonio at Sacramento - Spurs by 6
Phoenix at LA Clippers - Clippers by 4
New Orleans at Golden State - Warriors by 7
Thursday
Washington at Indiana - Pacers by 12
Dallas at Miami - Heat by 9
New Orleans at Portland - Trail Blazers by 7
Oklahoma City at LA Lakers - Thunder by 1
Friday
Philadelphia at Washington - 76ers by 9
Miami at Toronto - Heat by 8
Denver at Charlotte - Nuggets by 9
New York at Atlanta - Hawks by 2
Milwaukee at Cleveland - Bucks by 2
Detroit at Chicago - Bulls by 16
Memphis at Houston - Rockets by 2
Boston at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 3
Dallas at Orlando - Magic by 4
Sacramento at Utah - Jazz by 8
New Jersey at Golden State - Warriors by 9
Portland at LA Clippers - Clippers by 4
Saturday
New Orleans at LA Lakers - Lakers by 11
Charlotte at Detroit - Pistons by 11
Cleveland at New York - Knicks by 11
Atlanta at Philadelphia - 76ers by 6
Memphis at Milwaukee - Bucks by 2
Indiana at San Antonio - Spurs by 6
New Jersey at Sacramento - Kings by 6
Utah at LA Clippers - Clippers by 4
Sunday
Chicago at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 1
Miami at Boston - Heat by 4
Denver at Orlando - Magic by 5
Washington at Toronto - Raptors by 6
Indiana at Houston - Rockets by 1
New Orleans at Phoenix - Suns by 8
Minnesota at Portland - Trail Blazers by 3
Golden State at LA Lakers - Lakers by 7
Prediction Results
NBA: 45-20 (.692) 311-166 overall (.652)
Upsets: 5-7 (.417) 49-41 overall (.544)
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Chicago (3-0) (40-10) -6.88 (2)
2. Miami (3-1) (35-12) -6.19 (1)
3. Oklahoma City (4-1) (37-12) -4.76 (4)
4. Philadelphia (2-2) (27-22) -4.36 (3)
5. San Antonio (4-0) (33-14) -3.98 (5)
6. Indiana (3-1) (28-19) -1.46 (7)
7. LA Lakers (2-3) (30-19) -1.33 (6)
8. New York (3-1) (24-25) -1.15 (11)
9. Orlando (2-2) (31-18) -0.77 (9)
10. Atlanta (5-1) (30-20) -0.51 (10)
11. Memphis (2-3) (26-21) -0.17 (8)
12. Dallas (2-2) (28-22) 0.05 (15)
13. LA Clippers (2-3) (27-21) 0.40 (12)
14. Milwaukee (2-2) (22-26) 0.701 (17)
15. Utah (4-1) (26-23) 0.704 (18)
16. Phoenix (3-2) (25-24) 0.78 (21)
17. Boston (3-1) (26-22) 1.03 (19)
18. Houston (2-2) (26-23) 1.05 (20)
19. Minnesota (2-3) (24-26) 1.23 (16)
20. Denver (1-3) (26-23) 1.47 (13)
21. Portland (2-3) (23-26) 1.53 (14)
22. Golden State (2-3) (20-27) 2.69 (22)
23. Toronto (1-3) (16-33) 4.99 (23)
24. Sacramento (2-2) (17-31) 5.54 (27)
25. New Orleans (1-2) (12-36) 6.11 (25)
26. Detroit (0-4) (16-32) 6.16 (26)
27. Cleveland (1-4) (17-29) 6.21 (24)
28. Washington (1-4) (11-37) 7.77 (29)
29. New Jersey (1-3) (16-34) 8.11 (28)
30. Charlotte (0-3) (7-39) 13.68 (30)
Memphis would have fallen a lot farther without their road win against the Lakers last night, because the three games before were losses against struggling teams, Sacramento, Portland, and the Clippers. The lone win they had previously earned this week was against Washington, and a 5-point win over one of the league's worst teams at home is hardly something to brag about.
Utah's six-game winning streak ended last night in a quadruple-overtime loss to Atlanta, but before that, they had won games against both the Thunder and Lakers as they crept into the Western Conference playoff picture, replacing Denver among the top 8 teams. Their next five games are either against bad teams or struggling teams, so they could strengthen their position heading into April.
Phoenix has lost only 4 times since the All-Star Break, and three of those losses came on the road against top 10 teams, Oklahoma City, Orlando, and Miami. While none of their victories have been against the best teams, the quantity of wins has finally started to elevate them in the standings and the rankings, with the playoffs within reach.
The moment Ricky Rubio went down was the turning point in Minnesota's season, but not in a good way. At that point they were 21-19 and within a game of entering the playoff race, but since that fateful day they have won only 3 of 10 games and have fallen to 11th place in the West. While they are much improved over last year, it looks like this isn't the year they will break their playoff drought.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Monday
Miami at Indiana - Heat by 2
Detroit at Washington - Wizards by 2
Orlando at Toronto - Magic by 3
Boston at Charlotte - Celtics by 10
Utah at New Jersey - Jazz by 4
Milwaukee at New York - Knicks by 5
Denver at Chicago - Bulls by 12
Sacramento at Houston - Rockets by 8
New Orleans at LA Clippers - Clippers by 9
Tuesday
Cleveland at Philadelphia - 76ers by 14
Atlanta at Milwaukee - Bucks by 2
Minnesota at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5
Houston at Dallas - Mavericks by 4
San Antonio at Phoenix - Spurs by 2
Oklahoma City at Portland - Thunder by 3
LA Lakers at Golden State - Lakers by 1
Wednesday
Detroit at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 3
Orlando at New York - Knicks by 4
Denver at Toronto - Nuggets by 1
Minnesota at Charlotte - Timberwolves by 9
Chicago at Atlanta - Bulls by 3
Utah at Boston - Celtics by 3
Indiana at New Jersey - Pacers by 7
San Antonio at Sacramento - Spurs by 6
Phoenix at LA Clippers - Clippers by 4
New Orleans at Golden State - Warriors by 7
Thursday
Washington at Indiana - Pacers by 12
Dallas at Miami - Heat by 9
New Orleans at Portland - Trail Blazers by 7
Oklahoma City at LA Lakers - Thunder by 1
Friday
Philadelphia at Washington - 76ers by 9
Miami at Toronto - Heat by 8
Denver at Charlotte - Nuggets by 9
New York at Atlanta - Hawks by 2
Milwaukee at Cleveland - Bucks by 2
Detroit at Chicago - Bulls by 16
Memphis at Houston - Rockets by 2
Boston at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 3
Dallas at Orlando - Magic by 4
Sacramento at Utah - Jazz by 8
New Jersey at Golden State - Warriors by 9
Portland at LA Clippers - Clippers by 4
Saturday
New Orleans at LA Lakers - Lakers by 11
Charlotte at Detroit - Pistons by 11
Cleveland at New York - Knicks by 11
Atlanta at Philadelphia - 76ers by 6
Memphis at Milwaukee - Bucks by 2
Indiana at San Antonio - Spurs by 6
New Jersey at Sacramento - Kings by 6
Utah at LA Clippers - Clippers by 4
Sunday
Chicago at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 1
Miami at Boston - Heat by 4
Denver at Orlando - Magic by 5
Washington at Toronto - Raptors by 6
Indiana at Houston - Rockets by 1
New Orleans at Phoenix - Suns by 8
Minnesota at Portland - Trail Blazers by 3
Golden State at LA Lakers - Lakers by 7
Prediction Results
NBA: 45-20 (.692) 311-166 overall (.652)
Upsets: 5-7 (.417) 49-41 overall (.544)
Saturday, March 24, 2012
NBA MVP Rankings - 24 Mar
The Lakers have started to heat up now that the season is entering its final stages, and it hasn't been just one player pulling the load. Although they have had just one representative on this list for the majority of the season, their current resurgence is due to a couple of big men who have now made this upper echelon as well. The top few players have not changed in quite a while, but there a many players trying to sneak into the top 5 and possibly displace one of the favorites, and they still have over a month to get there, so nothing is set in stone yet. Here are my latest MVP and Most Improved Rankings, with rising players in green and falling players in red and a description of their best recent game.
Most Valuable Player
1. LeBron James - MIA - 27.0 pts, 8.4 reb, 6.7 ast, 2.0 stl, .539 FG%, .375 3P%, .766 FT%
March 16 at PHI - 29 pts, 7 reb, 8 ast, 2 blk, 2 stl, 12-20 FG (W 84-78)
Miami nearly blew a 20-point lead against a strong 76ers team, but LeBron scored 4 points in the final 90 seconds, two on a pull-up jumper and another two on free throws, to prevent the upset and keep Miami in the hunt for the best record in the East, where they are currently 2.5 games behind the Chicago Bulls.
2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 27.9 pts, 8.1 reb, 3.5 ast, 1.2 blk, 1.5 stl, .498 FG%, .366 3P%, .852 FT%
March 23 vs. MIN - 40 pts, 17 reb, 5 ast, 3 stl, 15-26 FG, 3-6 3P, 7-7 FT (W 149-140)
Incredibly, Durant's 40 points were the third-highest output in this game, and it was the second time this season that Durant and Westbrook had each eclipsed the 40-point mark on the same night. His 17 rebounds were a season-high, and he was very efficient shooting the ball from everywhere, which nearly allowed them to win the game in regulation after his 3-pointer with 3.9 seconds remaining, but Love matched him a couple seconds later and the game continued.
3. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 24.3 pts, 4.5 reb, 5.4 ast, 1.6 stl, .475 FG%, .338 3P%, .823 FT%
March 23 vs. MIN - 45 pts, 4 reb, 6 ast, 2 stl, 17-28 FG, 2-4 3P, 9-9 FT (W 149-140)
Westbrook was also not the highest scorer in this game, but his 45 points were a career high, and his steal and 3-point play to open the second overtime may have been the play that decided the game. Like Durant, he was perfect from the free throw line for the night, and he also shot over 60% from the field, which is an incredible feat for any point guard, and proof that he belongs this high.
4. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 28.5 pts, 5.6 reb, 4.7 ast, 1.3 stl, .429 FG%, .845 FT%
March 13 at MEM - 34 pts, 9 reb, 5 ast, 11-25 FG, 11-12 FT (W 116-111)
Despite scoring only 12 points in the first half, Bryant turned it on in the second half, scoring or assisting on nearly every important basket as the Lakers came back from an early deficit to defeat the Grizzlies in double overtime. The game kept LA ahead of Memphis in the Western Conference standings, and gave Kobe his fifth 30-point game of the month, a number which has now reached 7.
5. Dwight Howard - ORL - 21.0 pts, 14.8 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.2 blk, 1.5 stl, .582 FG%, .484 FT%
March 13 vs. MIA - 24 pts, 25 reb, 2 blk, 3 stl, 9-13 FG, 6-18 FT (W 104-98)
Not only did Howard notch his 8th 20-20 game of the season and the 40th of his career, he also led the Magic back from a big deficit to defeat the visiting Miami Heat in overtime. After the game, he announced that he would remain with the Magic for the remainder of the season and that he would not opt out of his contract when the season ends, which seems to have taken a big load off of the entire team.
6. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 22.9 pts, 4.9 reb, 4.8 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.6 stl, .505 FG%, .801 FT%
March 18 vs. ORL - 31 pts, 6 reb, 4 ast, 13-25 FG, 5-7 FT (W 91-81)
Wade scored 14 of his 31 points in the fourth quarter and made back-to-back baskets to stretch a 1-point lead to 5 late in the game as he helped Miami avenge their loss earlier in the week to Orlando. Wade is starting to look like the great player we've know him to be for years, and there is a good chance we'll see him up in the top 3 before too long.
7. Kevin Love - MIN - 26.2 pts, 13.7 reb, 1.8 ast, .452 FG%, .381 3P%, .812 FT%
March 23 at OKC - 51 pts, 14 reb, 16-27 FG, 7-11 3P, 12-16 FT (L 140-149)
Even though Minnesota lost the game, it was a night to remember for Kevin Love. He scored a career-high 51 points, 8 more than his previous high, and his 7 three-pointers were also the most he has ever made. He hit a 3-pointer with less than 1 second remaining in regulation that forced the first overtime, then scored 8 straight in the first extra period before the Wolves collapsed.
8. Pau Gasol - LAL - 16.8 pts, 10.4 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.3 blk, .512 FG%, .762 FT%
March 21 at DAL - 27 pts, 9 reb, 13-16 FG, 1-1 3P (W 109-93)
Pau had a great night from the field, shooting the ball at over 80% for the night, and the Lakers beat the Mavericks for the third time in three tries this season, ending Dallas' 4-game winning streak. One of the biggest shots of the game was a 3-point shot from Gasol, only his fifth of the season, that gave LA a 14-point lead with 8 minutes to go and pretty much sealed the fate of both teams.
9. Blake Griffin - LAC - 20.9 pts, 10.9 reb, 2.9 ast, .527 FG%, .544 FT%
March 11 vs. GSW - 27 pts, 12 reb, 3 ast, 2 blk, 10-19 FG, 7-15 FT (L 93-97)
Griffin's best game over the past two weeks came in a loss to the lowly Golden State Warriors, which kind of sums up how the Clippers' season has been going lately as well. His struggles from the line prevented them from making a comeback, and Griffin has begun to slide downward just like his team.
10. Andrew Bynum - LAL - 18.0 pts, 12.5 reb, 1.5 ast, 2.0 blk, .582 FG%, .664 FT%
March 13 at MEM - 37 pts, 16 reb, 15-18 FG, 7-8 FT (W 116-111)
Bynum has not even been on my honorable mention list before today, but this game at Memphis showed what a dominant player he can be. The 37 points established his season-high, and he only missed three shots from the field all night as the Lakers held off Memphis' attempt to pass Los Angeles for the West's third-best record. Bynum has reached 30 points three times this month, after never reaching it in the first 2+ months of the season.
Dropping Out
Derrick Rose - CHI
Tony Parker - SAS
Honorable Mention
Tony Parker - SAS
Josh Smith - ATL
James Harden - OKC
Marc Gasol - MEM
Carlos Boozer - CHI
Derrick Rose - CHI
Chris Bosh - MIA
Most Improved Player
1. Jeremy Lin - NYK - +12.1 pts, +1.8 reb, +4.8 ast, +0.5 stl, +.057 FG%, +.110 3P%, +.037 FT%
March 17 at IND - 19 pts, 7 reb, 6 ast, 6-10 FG, 7-8 FT (W 102-88)
You may think that Linsanity has ended now that Carmelo Anthony has returned, and while Lin's overall numbers have dropped a little this month, the Lin Dynasty is just beginning in New York. In the 25 games since he was inserted into the lineup, he has scored in double digits 22 times, and he has reached 10 assists in six games as well.
2. Jeff Teague - ATL - +7.1 pts, +0.8 reb, +2.4 ast, +1.1 stl, +.031 FG%
March 23 vs. NJN - 17 pts, 3 reb, 6 ast, 5-8 FG, 1-2 3P, 6-7 FT (W 93-84)
Teague led the Atlanta Hawks in assists last night and scored an uncontested layup that gave them a nine-point lead, their largest of the game, with just under 4 minutes remaining. He appears to be getting back on track, scoring at least 10 points in 5 of his last 6 games.
3. Andrew Bynum - LAL - +6.7 pts, +3.2 reb
See MVP #10 above.
4. Greg Monroe - DET - +6.9 pts, +2.4 reb, +1.2 ast, +.145 FT%
March 14 at SAC - 32 pts, 11 reb, 3 ast, 15-20 FG, 2-3 FT (W 124-112)
Monroe matched his career-high with 32 points, and made up for the last time he faced Sacramento, when he finished with only 3, as Detroit won a road game for the first time in nearly a month. Some night Monroe can be a total beast, but other nights he finished with lines of 5 points and 6 rebounds, as he did last night against Miami.
5. Ryan Anderson - ORL - +5.3 pts, +2.2 reb, +.015 3P%, +.043 FT%
March 21 vs. PHX - 29 pts, 4 reb, 9-16 FG, 7-12 3P, 4-6 FT (W 103-93)
Anderson 7 three-pointers marked the first time this month that he made more than 3 in a game, and he played just as well in the first half as the second, splitting his scoring 15-14 and his 3-pointers 4-3, keeping it consistent all night. His 3-point percentage, which had been far above 40% for the first two months of the season, has been only 34% this month, so this night was much needed.
Dropping Out
Marcin Gortat - PHX
Honorable Mention
Marcin Gortat - PHX
Paul George - IND
James Harden - OKC
Most Valuable Player
1. LeBron James - MIA - 27.0 pts, 8.4 reb, 6.7 ast, 2.0 stl, .539 FG%, .375 3P%, .766 FT%
March 16 at PHI - 29 pts, 7 reb, 8 ast, 2 blk, 2 stl, 12-20 FG (W 84-78)
Miami nearly blew a 20-point lead against a strong 76ers team, but LeBron scored 4 points in the final 90 seconds, two on a pull-up jumper and another two on free throws, to prevent the upset and keep Miami in the hunt for the best record in the East, where they are currently 2.5 games behind the Chicago Bulls.
2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 27.9 pts, 8.1 reb, 3.5 ast, 1.2 blk, 1.5 stl, .498 FG%, .366 3P%, .852 FT%
March 23 vs. MIN - 40 pts, 17 reb, 5 ast, 3 stl, 15-26 FG, 3-6 3P, 7-7 FT (W 149-140)
Incredibly, Durant's 40 points were the third-highest output in this game, and it was the second time this season that Durant and Westbrook had each eclipsed the 40-point mark on the same night. His 17 rebounds were a season-high, and he was very efficient shooting the ball from everywhere, which nearly allowed them to win the game in regulation after his 3-pointer with 3.9 seconds remaining, but Love matched him a couple seconds later and the game continued.
3. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 24.3 pts, 4.5 reb, 5.4 ast, 1.6 stl, .475 FG%, .338 3P%, .823 FT%
March 23 vs. MIN - 45 pts, 4 reb, 6 ast, 2 stl, 17-28 FG, 2-4 3P, 9-9 FT (W 149-140)
Westbrook was also not the highest scorer in this game, but his 45 points were a career high, and his steal and 3-point play to open the second overtime may have been the play that decided the game. Like Durant, he was perfect from the free throw line for the night, and he also shot over 60% from the field, which is an incredible feat for any point guard, and proof that he belongs this high.
4. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 28.5 pts, 5.6 reb, 4.7 ast, 1.3 stl, .429 FG%, .845 FT%
March 13 at MEM - 34 pts, 9 reb, 5 ast, 11-25 FG, 11-12 FT (W 116-111)
Despite scoring only 12 points in the first half, Bryant turned it on in the second half, scoring or assisting on nearly every important basket as the Lakers came back from an early deficit to defeat the Grizzlies in double overtime. The game kept LA ahead of Memphis in the Western Conference standings, and gave Kobe his fifth 30-point game of the month, a number which has now reached 7.
5. Dwight Howard - ORL - 21.0 pts, 14.8 reb, 1.9 ast, 2.2 blk, 1.5 stl, .582 FG%, .484 FT%
March 13 vs. MIA - 24 pts, 25 reb, 2 blk, 3 stl, 9-13 FG, 6-18 FT (W 104-98)
Not only did Howard notch his 8th 20-20 game of the season and the 40th of his career, he also led the Magic back from a big deficit to defeat the visiting Miami Heat in overtime. After the game, he announced that he would remain with the Magic for the remainder of the season and that he would not opt out of his contract when the season ends, which seems to have taken a big load off of the entire team.
6. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 22.9 pts, 4.9 reb, 4.8 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.6 stl, .505 FG%, .801 FT%
March 18 vs. ORL - 31 pts, 6 reb, 4 ast, 13-25 FG, 5-7 FT (W 91-81)
Wade scored 14 of his 31 points in the fourth quarter and made back-to-back baskets to stretch a 1-point lead to 5 late in the game as he helped Miami avenge their loss earlier in the week to Orlando. Wade is starting to look like the great player we've know him to be for years, and there is a good chance we'll see him up in the top 3 before too long.
7. Kevin Love - MIN - 26.2 pts, 13.7 reb, 1.8 ast, .452 FG%, .381 3P%, .812 FT%
March 23 at OKC - 51 pts, 14 reb, 16-27 FG, 7-11 3P, 12-16 FT (L 140-149)
Even though Minnesota lost the game, it was a night to remember for Kevin Love. He scored a career-high 51 points, 8 more than his previous high, and his 7 three-pointers were also the most he has ever made. He hit a 3-pointer with less than 1 second remaining in regulation that forced the first overtime, then scored 8 straight in the first extra period before the Wolves collapsed.
8. Pau Gasol - LAL - 16.8 pts, 10.4 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.3 blk, .512 FG%, .762 FT%
March 21 at DAL - 27 pts, 9 reb, 13-16 FG, 1-1 3P (W 109-93)
Pau had a great night from the field, shooting the ball at over 80% for the night, and the Lakers beat the Mavericks for the third time in three tries this season, ending Dallas' 4-game winning streak. One of the biggest shots of the game was a 3-point shot from Gasol, only his fifth of the season, that gave LA a 14-point lead with 8 minutes to go and pretty much sealed the fate of both teams.
9. Blake Griffin - LAC - 20.9 pts, 10.9 reb, 2.9 ast, .527 FG%, .544 FT%
March 11 vs. GSW - 27 pts, 12 reb, 3 ast, 2 blk, 10-19 FG, 7-15 FT (L 93-97)
Griffin's best game over the past two weeks came in a loss to the lowly Golden State Warriors, which kind of sums up how the Clippers' season has been going lately as well. His struggles from the line prevented them from making a comeback, and Griffin has begun to slide downward just like his team.
10. Andrew Bynum - LAL - 18.0 pts, 12.5 reb, 1.5 ast, 2.0 blk, .582 FG%, .664 FT%
March 13 at MEM - 37 pts, 16 reb, 15-18 FG, 7-8 FT (W 116-111)
Bynum has not even been on my honorable mention list before today, but this game at Memphis showed what a dominant player he can be. The 37 points established his season-high, and he only missed three shots from the field all night as the Lakers held off Memphis' attempt to pass Los Angeles for the West's third-best record. Bynum has reached 30 points three times this month, after never reaching it in the first 2+ months of the season.
Dropping Out
Derrick Rose - CHI
Tony Parker - SAS
Honorable Mention
Tony Parker - SAS
Josh Smith - ATL
James Harden - OKC
Marc Gasol - MEM
Carlos Boozer - CHI
Derrick Rose - CHI
Chris Bosh - MIA
Most Improved Player
1. Jeremy Lin - NYK - +12.1 pts, +1.8 reb, +4.8 ast, +0.5 stl, +.057 FG%, +.110 3P%, +.037 FT%
March 17 at IND - 19 pts, 7 reb, 6 ast, 6-10 FG, 7-8 FT (W 102-88)
You may think that Linsanity has ended now that Carmelo Anthony has returned, and while Lin's overall numbers have dropped a little this month, the Lin Dynasty is just beginning in New York. In the 25 games since he was inserted into the lineup, he has scored in double digits 22 times, and he has reached 10 assists in six games as well.
2. Jeff Teague - ATL - +7.1 pts, +0.8 reb, +2.4 ast, +1.1 stl, +.031 FG%
March 23 vs. NJN - 17 pts, 3 reb, 6 ast, 5-8 FG, 1-2 3P, 6-7 FT (W 93-84)
Teague led the Atlanta Hawks in assists last night and scored an uncontested layup that gave them a nine-point lead, their largest of the game, with just under 4 minutes remaining. He appears to be getting back on track, scoring at least 10 points in 5 of his last 6 games.
3. Andrew Bynum - LAL - +6.7 pts, +3.2 reb
See MVP #10 above.
4. Greg Monroe - DET - +6.9 pts, +2.4 reb, +1.2 ast, +.145 FT%
March 14 at SAC - 32 pts, 11 reb, 3 ast, 15-20 FG, 2-3 FT (W 124-112)
Monroe matched his career-high with 32 points, and made up for the last time he faced Sacramento, when he finished with only 3, as Detroit won a road game for the first time in nearly a month. Some night Monroe can be a total beast, but other nights he finished with lines of 5 points and 6 rebounds, as he did last night against Miami.
5. Ryan Anderson - ORL - +5.3 pts, +2.2 reb, +.015 3P%, +.043 FT%
March 21 vs. PHX - 29 pts, 4 reb, 9-16 FG, 7-12 3P, 4-6 FT (W 103-93)
Anderson 7 three-pointers marked the first time this month that he made more than 3 in a game, and he played just as well in the first half as the second, splitting his scoring 15-14 and his 3-pointers 4-3, keeping it consistent all night. His 3-point percentage, which had been far above 40% for the first two months of the season, has been only 34% this month, so this night was much needed.
Dropping Out
Marcin Gortat - PHX
Honorable Mention
Marcin Gortat - PHX
Paul George - IND
James Harden - OKC
Friday, March 23, 2012
Top 100 NBA Players: #14
Bill Russell
(Kalb: #4, Simmons: #2, BBR: #4)
Bill Russell is usually on the short list of players considered to be the best of all time, and you can see that each of the other rankings I have referenced above had him among the top 4 players of all time, but I've chosen to rank him significantly lower. I mean no disrespect in ranking him this low, but when you look at the facts, it just makes sense.
As I described earlier in my biography of Oscar Robertson, Russell played in an era of inflated statistics, so when you look at his career averages of 15.1 points and 22.5 rebounds per game, you must remember that those numbers are much higher due to the faster pace of the game and the lower shooting percentages that produced more available rebounds. If you adjust his stats for deflation to today's rates, his career numbers would be 12.1 points and 13.3 rebounds per game. That would still place him among the greatest rebounders of all time, but makes him quite average offensively.
In order to be considered one of the all-time greatest players, a player needs to be exceptional in multiple facets of the game, whether it is offense, defense, longevity, or winning. Russell was a subpar offensive player, shooting just 44% from the field and 56% from the line for his career, and his longevity was just average at 13 seasons. Russell is, however, one of the game's greatest defensive players, and if blocked shots had been counted during his career, it may have been possible to rank him higher, but there is no way to prove what he did during those years.
When it comes to winning, there was no one better. In his 13 seasons in the NBA, he won 11 NBA Championships. The two times he didn't when occurred when he was injured and unable to compete or worn out from his first season as both a player and a coach. Of those 11 title teams, Russell was the best player on 8, the famous 8 consecutive titles that covered most of the 1960's. During their first title run the Celtics were still Bob Cousy's team, and by the time they won their final two titles they had become John Havlicek's team. The Finals MVP award did not exist during his career, but if it had, he would have deserved to win it eight times, and in recognition of that the NBA renamed the Finals MVP award after him in 2009.
There are only 4 players in history who can claim they were the best player on at least 3 consecutive title teams: George Mikan, Bill Russell, Michael Jordan, and Shaquille O'Neal. There are only a few others who can even claim they were the best on 3 total, such as Bird, Magic, Duncan, and Havlicek. Besides those titles in the NBA, he also won a gold medal in the 1956 Olympics, as well as 2 national championship in his final two years at the University of San Francisco. So despite his shortcomings on the offensive side of the ball and his average longevity, Russell will always have a place among the game's greats.
The question of Russell vs. Drexler seems almost silly, but I have already shows that Russell was slightly overrated and Drexler was vastly underrated, so when you compare the two, they're actually closer than you think. They were both very good defensive players, with the slight edge going to Russell, and Drexler's 15 seasons give him the longevity edge over Russell. Drexler was a far better offensive player than Russell, averaging over 20 points per game for the majority of his career, a number that Russell never matched in a single season. But Russell still gets the edge here for his winning ways, since Drexler's title came after he became Olajuwon's second banana, while Russell led his team to championships nearly every season.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
NCAA Tournament Odds - 21 Mar
The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament was exciting as usual, with a good mix of upsets and close games, and only a few games that weren't competitive. There are quite a few interesting games coming up, and several potential matchups that could be very fun to watch. Here are the results of several of my previous predictions, as well as the current odds of each team advancing in the tournament.
Teams That Should Have Been In
Among the 5 teams I named that should have been allowed into the NCAA Tournament, 4 won their first round games in the NIT, with Arizona, the lowest-ranked of the 5, being the lone loser of the bunch. Middle Tennessee is still alive and among the final 8 teams in that tournament.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Only 2 of the five teams that should not have made the NCAA Tournament won a game, with Xavier the only one still alive, which is due to their extremely favorable second-round matchup with Lehigh, which took out Duke in the first round.
Most Underseeded Teams
Of the 10 teams I listed as being seeded too low, only two were able to overcome that disadvantage and win their opening matchups, Florida and Saint Louis. The others were unable to show their true potential due to a schedule that was tougher than it should have been on opening weekend.
Most Overseeded Teams
Of the 9 teams that I named as being seeded too high, 7 lost in the first round, and another lost in the second round, leaving only Xavier to represent them. 5 of those 7 were the victims of upsets, although they weren't all that surprising due to them being placed incorrectly. Xavier was the lucky one that faced another overseeded team in the opening round and a major Cinderella in the second round.
Number of First Round Upsets
I predicted 10.9 upsets in the first round, and there turned out to be 10, so I pretty much nailed this one on the head.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
Of the 10 first round upsets, 6 were listed among the 13 most likely ones in my tournament preview, with the two that I had at over 50% both coming through.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull Off an Upset
I listed Lehigh as the most likely low seed to pull off the first round upset, and I think we all know how that went. I did not, however, see Norfolk State taking out Missouri.
Number of Double Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
I predicted that there would be 3.8, so the 3 that are still alive this year once again proved my formula correct.
Most Likely Cinderellas
All 3 of the low seeds still alive in the tournament were in my top 9 most likely Cinderellas, so I'm feeling pretty good about this one too.
Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four
At the beginning of the tourney I picked 1.1 top seeds to make the Final Four, but that number has risen to 1.6 due to all 4 emerging from the first weekend unscathed. I still don't believe we will see more than two of them make it.
Odds of a #1 Winning the Championship
The odds of this have risen as well, from 37.2% before the tourney to 49.9% today, so there's a pretty good chance that we'll see one of the four hoisting the trophy at the end of it all.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
7 of my 8 most likely are still in as of the Sweet 16, so that's not too bad, although Missouri's absence is very surprising.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
1. North Carolina - 49.0%
2. Kentucky - 47.9%
3. Ohio State - 43.6%
4. Michigan State - 39.2%
5. Kansas - 34.1%
6. Syracuse - 25.8%
7. Baylor - 23.3%
8. Florida - 23.1%
9. Marquette - 21.8%
10. Wisconsin - 20.9%
Most Likely Champions
1. Kentucky - 16.4%
2. North Carolina - 15.4%
3. Ohio State - 15.1%
4. Michigan State - 11.4%
5. Kansas - 8.5%
6. Syracuse - 6.7%
7. Wisconsin - 4.7%
8. Florida - 4.5%
9. Marquette - 4.0%
10. Baylor - 3.8%
Only a couple of changes between the two lists, one being that Kentucky remains the most likely team to win the championship despite having lower odds than North Carolina of making the Final Four. A large part of that is the Tar Heels' region, which includes two of the Cinderella teams, meaning they have an easier path than many of the favorites. Also, Wisconsin and Baylor switched spots here, because Wisconsin is a much stronger team, but they face a tougher path to get to the Final Four, with both Syracuse and Ohio State standing in the way.
Odds of a Conference Having Multiple Teams in the Final Four
Big 10 - 45.3% (4 left)
Big East - 13.4% (4 left)
SEC - 11.1% (2 left)
Big 12 - 8.0% (2 left)
The ACC, despite having two teams still alive, cannot have both in the Final Four, because both are in the same region. The Big East has relatively low odds of getting two there because they are only in two regions, so two are guaranteed to be out. The Big 10 has its four teams spread among 3 regions, so there is a very good chance we'll see two teams from that conference among the Final Four teams. In fact, the odds are 4.9% that the Big 10 will have three representatives still standing after this weekend.
Championship Game Odds
All Big 10 - 10.8%
All Big 12 - 1.7%
All Big East - 2.7%
All Cats - 1.5%
All Birds - 2.7%
All Blue - 12.7%
All Green - 0.5%
All Red - 5.4%
All Orange - 1.4%
All Double-Digit Seeds - 0.1%
All Ohio - 0.9%
All Wisconsin - 1.0%
All Cincinnati (Brawl Rematch) - 0.1%
All K - 4.9%
All Mid-Major - 0.05%
All #1's - 20.4%
All #4's - 1.5%
There you have it, all the odds you could ever want to know about, and some you probably didn't. Enjoy the rest of the tournament, and good luck with your brackets.
Teams That Should Have Been In
Among the 5 teams I named that should have been allowed into the NCAA Tournament, 4 won their first round games in the NIT, with Arizona, the lowest-ranked of the 5, being the lone loser of the bunch. Middle Tennessee is still alive and among the final 8 teams in that tournament.
Teams That Should Have Been Left Out
Only 2 of the five teams that should not have made the NCAA Tournament won a game, with Xavier the only one still alive, which is due to their extremely favorable second-round matchup with Lehigh, which took out Duke in the first round.
Most Underseeded Teams
Of the 10 teams I listed as being seeded too low, only two were able to overcome that disadvantage and win their opening matchups, Florida and Saint Louis. The others were unable to show their true potential due to a schedule that was tougher than it should have been on opening weekend.
Most Overseeded Teams
Of the 9 teams that I named as being seeded too high, 7 lost in the first round, and another lost in the second round, leaving only Xavier to represent them. 5 of those 7 were the victims of upsets, although they weren't all that surprising due to them being placed incorrectly. Xavier was the lucky one that faced another overseeded team in the opening round and a major Cinderella in the second round.
Number of First Round Upsets
I predicted 10.9 upsets in the first round, and there turned out to be 10, so I pretty much nailed this one on the head.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
Of the 10 first round upsets, 6 were listed among the 13 most likely ones in my tournament preview, with the two that I had at over 50% both coming through.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull Off an Upset
I listed Lehigh as the most likely low seed to pull off the first round upset, and I think we all know how that went. I did not, however, see Norfolk State taking out Missouri.
Number of Double Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16
I predicted that there would be 3.8, so the 3 that are still alive this year once again proved my formula correct.
Most Likely Cinderellas
All 3 of the low seeds still alive in the tournament were in my top 9 most likely Cinderellas, so I'm feeling pretty good about this one too.
Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four
At the beginning of the tourney I picked 1.1 top seeds to make the Final Four, but that number has risen to 1.6 due to all 4 emerging from the first weekend unscathed. I still don't believe we will see more than two of them make it.
Odds of a #1 Winning the Championship
The odds of this have risen as well, from 37.2% before the tourney to 49.9% today, so there's a pretty good chance that we'll see one of the four hoisting the trophy at the end of it all.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
7 of my 8 most likely are still in as of the Sweet 16, so that's not too bad, although Missouri's absence is very surprising.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
1. North Carolina - 49.0%
2. Kentucky - 47.9%
3. Ohio State - 43.6%
4. Michigan State - 39.2%
5. Kansas - 34.1%
6. Syracuse - 25.8%
7. Baylor - 23.3%
8. Florida - 23.1%
9. Marquette - 21.8%
10. Wisconsin - 20.9%
Most Likely Champions
1. Kentucky - 16.4%
2. North Carolina - 15.4%
3. Ohio State - 15.1%
4. Michigan State - 11.4%
5. Kansas - 8.5%
6. Syracuse - 6.7%
7. Wisconsin - 4.7%
8. Florida - 4.5%
9. Marquette - 4.0%
10. Baylor - 3.8%
Only a couple of changes between the two lists, one being that Kentucky remains the most likely team to win the championship despite having lower odds than North Carolina of making the Final Four. A large part of that is the Tar Heels' region, which includes two of the Cinderella teams, meaning they have an easier path than many of the favorites. Also, Wisconsin and Baylor switched spots here, because Wisconsin is a much stronger team, but they face a tougher path to get to the Final Four, with both Syracuse and Ohio State standing in the way.
Odds of a Conference Having Multiple Teams in the Final Four
Big 10 - 45.3% (4 left)
Big East - 13.4% (4 left)
SEC - 11.1% (2 left)
Big 12 - 8.0% (2 left)
The ACC, despite having two teams still alive, cannot have both in the Final Four, because both are in the same region. The Big East has relatively low odds of getting two there because they are only in two regions, so two are guaranteed to be out. The Big 10 has its four teams spread among 3 regions, so there is a very good chance we'll see two teams from that conference among the Final Four teams. In fact, the odds are 4.9% that the Big 10 will have three representatives still standing after this weekend.
Championship Game Odds
All Big 10 - 10.8%
All Big 12 - 1.7%
All Big East - 2.7%
All Cats - 1.5%
All Birds - 2.7%
All Blue - 12.7%
All Green - 0.5%
All Red - 5.4%
All Orange - 1.4%
All Double-Digit Seeds - 0.1%
All Ohio - 0.9%
All Wisconsin - 1.0%
All Cincinnati (Brawl Rematch) - 0.1%
All K - 4.9%
All Mid-Major - 0.05%
All #1's - 20.4%
All #4's - 1.5%
There you have it, all the odds you could ever want to know about, and some you probably didn't. Enjoy the rest of the tournament, and good luck with your brackets.
Sunday, March 18, 2012
NBA Rankings - 18 Mar
Last week I got wrapped up in the release of the NCAA Tournament bracket and didn't get to my NBA rankings, so this week I'm getting you updated, and I'm including what their rankings would have been last week here along with their rankings last time I posted. The season is 67% finished, and the playoff picture is starting to take shape, with Chicago in position to possibly clinch a playoff berth before the end of the month. Here are the latest rankings, with gaps between teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. Team (2 Weeks) (Overall) Rating (LW) (LLW)
1. Miami (4-2) (32-11) -8.68 (2) (1)
2. Chicago (7-2) (37-10) -8.46 (1) (2)
3. Philadelphia (3-5) (25-20) -6.69 (3) (4)
4. Oklahoma City (4-3) (33-11) -5.58 (4) (3)
5. San Antonio (4-3) (29-14) -4.92 (5) (5)
6. LA Lakers (5-2) (28-16) -3.34 (9) (6)
7. Indiana (2-6) (25-18) -2.99 (7) (9)
8. Memphis (2-3) (24-18) -2.95 (6) (10)
9. Orlando (5-2) (29-16) -2.87 (13) (12)
10. Atlanta (3-4) (25-19) -2.67 (12) (15)
11. New York (3-5) (21-24) -2.35 (21) (17)
12. LA Clippers (4-5) (25-18) -2.18 (10) (13)
13. Denver (5-3) (25-20) -2.15 (11) (11)
14. Portland (3-4) (21-23) -1.69 (8) (7)
15. Dallas (4-4) (26-20) -1.27 (14) (8)
16. Minnesota (3-4) (22-23) -0.77 (15) (14)
17. Milwaukee (6-1) (20-24) -0.47 (22) (22)
18. Utah (5-3) (22-22) -0.30 (16) (18)
19. Boston (4-4) (23-21) -0.13 (18) (19)
20. Houston (3-5) (24-21) 0.35 (17) (16)
21. Phoenix (6-2) (22-22) 0.64 (20) (20)
22. Golden State (4-5) (18-24) 0.76 (19) (21)
23. Toronto (4-5) (15-30) 3.71 (25) (24)
24. Cleveland (3-3) (16-25) 4.07 (26) (27)
25. New Orleans (2-6) (11-34) 4.74 (23) (23)
26. Detroit (4-2) (16-28) 4.82 (27) (28)
27. Sacramento (3-5) (15-29) 4.93 (24) (25)
28. New Jersey (3-5) (15-31) 5.57 (28) (26)
29. Washington (2-5) (10-33) 7.13 (29) (29)
30. Charlotte (3-6) (7-36) 11.39 (30) (30)
Miami may not have won as many games as Chicago over the last 2 weeks, and they even lost to the Bulls last week, but Miami took back the lead from Chicago anyway. Both of their losses were in very close road games against top 10 teams, and 3 of their wins were also against teams in the top 10, so the sheer difficulty of these last two weeks for the Heat is what has allowed them to maintain their standing at the top.
Chicago, meanwhile, also lost two games over that stretch, one to the Orlando Magic, who also beat Miami, but the other one came against Portland, who has been struggling severely over the last month. Even worse, both losses came on their home court, and the game against the Blazers wasn't even that close. Luckily for Chicago, they can point to the fact that Derrick Rose is out to explain the loss, but it's still a loss.
Philadelphia moved up to #3 this week despite losing more games than they won over the past couple weeks. The thing to notice is that three of those losses were expected to happen, because they came against Chicago or Miami, and all three losses were by single digits. They are definitely not on the same level as the Heat or Bulls, but they are better than most of the other teams out there.
Since Dwight Howard announced he would remain in Orlando, the Magic have caught on fire, beating Chicago, Indiana, and Miami, while dropping only one game over that span, which was a tough road game against the Spurs. Before that announcement, the Magic lost a game to Charlotte, one of the worst teams in league history, so it's easy to see what a difference it has already made.
New York has responded in a very positive manner to a change in coaching, winning three straight games under Mike Woodson after losing their last 6 under Mike D'Antoni. Each of the three wins came by at least 15 points, and that should continue when they play Toronto on Tuesday before they face their first real test under Woodson on Wednesday when they travel to Philadelphia.
Portland, meanwhile, hasn't won two straight games since late January, and they have fallen to 12th place in the Western Conference playoff picture as a result. They are also playing with a new coach, but the results are still the same, with surprising wins over good teams sandwiched between losses to bad teams.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Sunday
Atlanta at Cleveland - Hawks by 4
Detroit at LA Clippers - Clippers by 10
Minnesota at Sacramento - Timberwolves by 3
Washington at Memphis - Grizzlies by 13
Orlando at Miami - Heat by 9
Houston at Phoenix - Suns by 3
Utah at LA Lakers - Lakers by 6
Portland at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7
Monday
Philadelphia at Charlotte - 76ers by 15
Boston at Atlanta - Hawks by 6
Cleveland at New Jersey - Nets by 2
Chicago at Orlando - Bulls by 3
Dallas at Denver - Nuggets by 4
Minnesota at Golden State - Warriors by 2
Tuesday
LA Clippers at Indiana - Pacers by 4
Toronto at New York - Knicks by 9
Phoenix at Miami - Heat by 12
LA Lakers at Houston - Lakers by 1
Oklahoma City at Utah - Thunder by 2
Milwaukee at Portland - Trail Blazers by 4
Memphis at Sacramento - Grizzlies by 5
Wednesday
Phoenix at Orlando - Magic by 7
New York at Philadelphia - 76ers by 8
Chicago at Toronto - Bulls by 9
Cleveland at Atlanta - Hawks by 10
Washington at New Jersey - Nets by 5
Golden State at New Orleans - Warriors by 1
LA Clippers at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7
Minnesota at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Detroit at Denver - Nuggets by 10
LA Lakers at Dallas - Mavericks by 1
Thursday
Indiana at Washington - Pacers by 7
LA Clippers at New Orleans - Clippers by 4
Golden State at Houston - Rockets by 4
Boston at Milwaukee - Bucks by 4
Memphis at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2
Utah at Sacramento - Jazz by 2
Friday
Phoenix at Indiana - Pacers by 7
Cleveland at Orlando - Magic by 10
New York at Toronto - Knicks by 3
Milwaukee at Charlotte - Bucks by 9
New Jersey at Atlanta - Hawks by 11
Miami at Detroit - Heat by 10
Boston at Philadelphia - 76ers by 10
Minnesota at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 8
Dallas at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Portland at LA Lakers - Lakers by 5
Denver at Utah - Jazz by 1
Saturday
Memphis at LA Clippers - Clippers by 2
Atlanta at Washington - Hawks by 7
Charlotte at New Jersey - Nets by 9
Detroit at New York - Knicks by 10
San Antonio at New Orleans - Spurs by 7
Toronto at Chicago - Bulls by 15
Dallas at Houston - Rockets by 2
Indiana at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
Sacramento at Golden State - Warriors by 7
Sunday
Phoenix at Cleveland - Suns by 1
Denver at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 2
Prediction Results
NBA: 36-21 (.632) 266-146 overall (.646)
Upsets: 3-4 (.429) 44-34 overall (.564)
TW. Team (2 Weeks) (Overall) Rating (LW) (LLW)
1. Miami (4-2) (32-11) -8.68 (2) (1)
2. Chicago (7-2) (37-10) -8.46 (1) (2)
3. Philadelphia (3-5) (25-20) -6.69 (3) (4)
4. Oklahoma City (4-3) (33-11) -5.58 (4) (3)
5. San Antonio (4-3) (29-14) -4.92 (5) (5)
6. LA Lakers (5-2) (28-16) -3.34 (9) (6)
7. Indiana (2-6) (25-18) -2.99 (7) (9)
8. Memphis (2-3) (24-18) -2.95 (6) (10)
9. Orlando (5-2) (29-16) -2.87 (13) (12)
10. Atlanta (3-4) (25-19) -2.67 (12) (15)
11. New York (3-5) (21-24) -2.35 (21) (17)
12. LA Clippers (4-5) (25-18) -2.18 (10) (13)
13. Denver (5-3) (25-20) -2.15 (11) (11)
14. Portland (3-4) (21-23) -1.69 (8) (7)
15. Dallas (4-4) (26-20) -1.27 (14) (8)
16. Minnesota (3-4) (22-23) -0.77 (15) (14)
17. Milwaukee (6-1) (20-24) -0.47 (22) (22)
18. Utah (5-3) (22-22) -0.30 (16) (18)
19. Boston (4-4) (23-21) -0.13 (18) (19)
20. Houston (3-5) (24-21) 0.35 (17) (16)
21. Phoenix (6-2) (22-22) 0.64 (20) (20)
22. Golden State (4-5) (18-24) 0.76 (19) (21)
23. Toronto (4-5) (15-30) 3.71 (25) (24)
24. Cleveland (3-3) (16-25) 4.07 (26) (27)
25. New Orleans (2-6) (11-34) 4.74 (23) (23)
26. Detroit (4-2) (16-28) 4.82 (27) (28)
27. Sacramento (3-5) (15-29) 4.93 (24) (25)
28. New Jersey (3-5) (15-31) 5.57 (28) (26)
29. Washington (2-5) (10-33) 7.13 (29) (29)
30. Charlotte (3-6) (7-36) 11.39 (30) (30)
Miami may not have won as many games as Chicago over the last 2 weeks, and they even lost to the Bulls last week, but Miami took back the lead from Chicago anyway. Both of their losses were in very close road games against top 10 teams, and 3 of their wins were also against teams in the top 10, so the sheer difficulty of these last two weeks for the Heat is what has allowed them to maintain their standing at the top.
Chicago, meanwhile, also lost two games over that stretch, one to the Orlando Magic, who also beat Miami, but the other one came against Portland, who has been struggling severely over the last month. Even worse, both losses came on their home court, and the game against the Blazers wasn't even that close. Luckily for Chicago, they can point to the fact that Derrick Rose is out to explain the loss, but it's still a loss.
Philadelphia moved up to #3 this week despite losing more games than they won over the past couple weeks. The thing to notice is that three of those losses were expected to happen, because they came against Chicago or Miami, and all three losses were by single digits. They are definitely not on the same level as the Heat or Bulls, but they are better than most of the other teams out there.
Since Dwight Howard announced he would remain in Orlando, the Magic have caught on fire, beating Chicago, Indiana, and Miami, while dropping only one game over that span, which was a tough road game against the Spurs. Before that announcement, the Magic lost a game to Charlotte, one of the worst teams in league history, so it's easy to see what a difference it has already made.
New York has responded in a very positive manner to a change in coaching, winning three straight games under Mike Woodson after losing their last 6 under Mike D'Antoni. Each of the three wins came by at least 15 points, and that should continue when they play Toronto on Tuesday before they face their first real test under Woodson on Wednesday when they travel to Philadelphia.
Portland, meanwhile, hasn't won two straight games since late January, and they have fallen to 12th place in the Western Conference playoff picture as a result. They are also playing with a new coach, but the results are still the same, with surprising wins over good teams sandwiched between losses to bad teams.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Sunday
Atlanta at Cleveland - Hawks by 4
Detroit at LA Clippers - Clippers by 10
Minnesota at Sacramento - Timberwolves by 3
Washington at Memphis - Grizzlies by 13
Orlando at Miami - Heat by 9
Houston at Phoenix - Suns by 3
Utah at LA Lakers - Lakers by 6
Portland at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7
Monday
Philadelphia at Charlotte - 76ers by 15
Boston at Atlanta - Hawks by 6
Cleveland at New Jersey - Nets by 2
Chicago at Orlando - Bulls by 3
Dallas at Denver - Nuggets by 4
Minnesota at Golden State - Warriors by 2
Tuesday
LA Clippers at Indiana - Pacers by 4
Toronto at New York - Knicks by 9
Phoenix at Miami - Heat by 12
LA Lakers at Houston - Lakers by 1
Oklahoma City at Utah - Thunder by 2
Milwaukee at Portland - Trail Blazers by 4
Memphis at Sacramento - Grizzlies by 5
Wednesday
Phoenix at Orlando - Magic by 7
New York at Philadelphia - 76ers by 8
Chicago at Toronto - Bulls by 9
Cleveland at Atlanta - Hawks by 10
Washington at New Jersey - Nets by 5
Golden State at New Orleans - Warriors by 1
LA Clippers at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7
Minnesota at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Detroit at Denver - Nuggets by 10
LA Lakers at Dallas - Mavericks by 1
Thursday
Indiana at Washington - Pacers by 7
LA Clippers at New Orleans - Clippers by 4
Golden State at Houston - Rockets by 4
Boston at Milwaukee - Bucks by 4
Memphis at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2
Utah at Sacramento - Jazz by 2
Friday
Phoenix at Indiana - Pacers by 7
Cleveland at Orlando - Magic by 10
New York at Toronto - Knicks by 3
Milwaukee at Charlotte - Bucks by 9
New Jersey at Atlanta - Hawks by 11
Miami at Detroit - Heat by 10
Boston at Philadelphia - 76ers by 10
Minnesota at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 8
Dallas at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Portland at LA Lakers - Lakers by 5
Denver at Utah - Jazz by 1
Saturday
Memphis at LA Clippers - Clippers by 2
Atlanta at Washington - Hawks by 7
Charlotte at New Jersey - Nets by 9
Detroit at New York - Knicks by 10
San Antonio at New Orleans - Spurs by 7
Toronto at Chicago - Bulls by 15
Dallas at Houston - Rockets by 2
Indiana at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
Sacramento at Golden State - Warriors by 7
Sunday
Phoenix at Cleveland - Suns by 1
Denver at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 2
Prediction Results
NBA: 36-21 (.632) 266-146 overall (.646)
Upsets: 3-4 (.429) 44-34 overall (.564)
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