NCAA Football Playoff Odds

The first 12-team NCAA Football Playoff starts in a couple of hours, so I've gone through each team's performance this season, calculating each team's odds of meeting any other team, and their odds of beating that team, factoring in home field advantage for the first round games, in order to determine each team's odds of making it through each round and eventually winning the championship in late January. Here is how it all breaks down, and I've also made my picks for how it will all turn out at the end of the post:

Odds of Winning First Round Game

(8) Ohio State - 77.2%

(7) Notre Dame - 74.0%

(5) Texas - 73.7%

(6) Penn State - 58.5%

(11) SMU - 41.5%

(12) Clemson - 26.3%

(10) Indiana - 26.0%

(9) Tennessee - 22.8%

Odds of Reaching Semifinals

(5) Texas - 49.8%

(1) Oregon - 47.7%

(7) Notre Dame - 46.6%

(8) Ohio State - 43.7%

(2) Georgia - 40.9%

(3) Boise State - 40.5%

(4) Arizona State - 36.3%

(6) Penn State - 34.6%

(11) SMU - 24.9%

(12) Clemson - 13.9%

(10) Indiana - 12.4%

(9) Tennessee - 8.6%

Odds of Reaching Championship Game

(7) Notre Dame - 31.6%

(8) Ohio State - 26.9%

(1) Oregon - 26.3%

(5) Texas - 25.7%

(2) Georgia - 22.5%

(6) Penn State - 14.7%

(3) Boise State - 13.7%

(4) Arizona State - 12.3%

(11) SMU - 10.9%

(10) Indiana - 6.6%

(12) Clemson - 5.1%

(9) Tennessee - 3.7%

Odds of Winning Championship

(7) Notre Dame - 18.8%

(8) Ohio State - 15.6%

(5) Texas - 14.0%

(1) Oregon - 13.5%

(2) Georgia - 10.5%

(6) Penn State - 6.6%

(11) SMU - 5.0%

(3) Boise State - 4.9%

(4) Arizona State - 4.6%

(10) Indiana - 2.9%

(12) Clemson - 2.1%

(9) Tennessee - 1.5%

Notre Dame has the best odds of winning it all, and they did finish in the top spot in my final regular season rankings, but there are 5 teams with a very solid chance of walking away with the trophy. 

My Picks

First Round

(5) Texas over (12) Clemson

(11) SMU over (6) Penn State

(7) Notre Dame over (10) Indiana

(8) Ohio State over (9) Tennessee

Second Round

(8) Ohio State over (1) Oregon

(7) Notre Dame over (2) Georgia

(3) Boise State over (11) SMU

(5) Texas over (4) Arizona State

Semifinals

(7) Notre Dame over (3) Boise State

(8) Ohio State over (5) Texas

Championship

(8) Ohio State over (7) Notre Dame