NCAA Tournament Odds - 2024

6123 games down, 67 to go. The results of every game that has been played so far has been entered into my formula, and then each team's rating was plugged into the official bracket to determine each team's odds of advancing through each round and cutting down the nets in 3 weeks. Hopefully you find something here that can help you build a winning bracket.

Best Teams Left Out

(25) Saint John's

(29) Wake Forest

(31) Indiana State

(37) Villanova

(38) Cincinnati

(39) Pittsburgh

(41) Ohio State

(43) Oklahoma

These teams are usually a good bet to perform well in the NIT, although the recent trend has been to skip the lesser tournament when you get snubbed for the big one. Indiana State and Oklahoma were the two teams that I picked to make the field that didn't end up getting in, and 3 of the teams that the committee said were closest to making the field are on this list as well.

Worst At-Large Teams Selected

(66) Virginia

(55) Boise State

(52) South Carolina

(51) Utah State

(47) Northwestern

(45) Nevada

(44) Colorado State

Virginia was one of the two teams that I felt should have been left out, along with Michigan State and their 14 losses, but the Spartans are at least good enough to do something in the tournament. There are 4 Mountain West teams on this list, and though all 4 were deserving of their spots according to the committee's standards, they are among the weaker teams in the tournament, and less likely to win games than other teams in the field. All 5 teams that I included on this list last season were eliminated during the first weekend.

Teams that are Better than their Seed

1. Colorado

2. New Mexico

3. Michigan State

4. Auburn

5. BYU

6. Mississippi State

7. Grand Canyon

8. James Madison

Last year, 5 of the 10 teams on this list made deeper tournament runs than expected by their seeding, including FAU, who reached the Final Four from a 9 seed, and UConn, who won the entire tournament as a 4 seed. These are good teams to look at for upsets in the first round and beyond.

Teams that are Worse than their Seed

1. South Carolina

2. Saint Mary's

3. Kansas

4. San Diego State

5. Texas Tech

6. Texas

7. Washington State

8. Utah State

9. Virginia

10. Duquesne

11. UAB

These teams are good bets to lose earlier than expected, though last year only 2 ended up going home before they should have, while 5 lasted exactly as long as their seed projected. South Carolina is much farther from their seed than any of the others on this list.

Projected First Round Upsets

9.3

That number is actually quite low for recent tournaments. Last year's projection was 10.7, and it turned out that there were only 7 upsets in the first round, well below the projected range, which is surprising after considering how many upsets happened in later rounds. I expect this year to fall within the range of 8 to 10.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

(9) TCU over (8) Utah State - 55.4%

(9) Michigan State over (8) Mississippi State - 53.1%

(11) New Mexico over (6) Clemson - 51.7%

(10) Drake over (7) Washington State - 49.1%

(11) Oregon over (6) South Carolina - 47.7%

(9) Northwestern over (8) FAU - 46.2%

(10) Nevada over (7) Dayton - 45.4%

(12) Grand Canyon over (5) Saint Mary's - 45.3%

(9) Texas A&M over (8) Nebraska - 45.3%

(10) Virginia/Colorado State over (7) Texas - 44.3%

(11) NC State over (6) Texas Tech - 41.2%

4 of the 7 first round upsets last year were on my list, so these are the first place to look for upsets, though we will probably see a few more unexpected ones as well.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to win a Game

(15) Western Kentucky over (2) Marquette - 16.6%

(15) South Dakota State over (2) Iowa State - 12.6%

Not much chance of a huge upset this year, unlike last season, where I had three 15 seeds with at least a 20% chance of winning, one of which happened when Princeton upset Arizona, in addition to Purdue's loss to Fairleigh Dickinson.

Most Likely Cinderellas

(11) New Mexico - 27.3%

(10) Drake - 18.8%

(11) Oregon - 18.5%

(12) Grand Canyon - 18.3%

(12) McNeese - 18.1%

(11) NC State - 17.2%

(12) James Madison - 15.5%

(13) Samford - 14.3%

(10) Virginia/Colorado State - 13.0%

(10) Boise State/Colorado - 12.8%

(10) Nevada - 12.7%

Last year only 1 double-digit seed reached the Sweet 16, and that was Princeton, who was not among the most likely teams to make a deep run. The top 8 teams on this list all recently won conference tournaments, 5 of them in upsets, so they know how to win when they aren't expected to.

Projected Number of Cinderellas

2.6

This number is much lower than last year's projected 3.5, which turned into a single true Cinderella, but it should bounce back this year to see 2 or 3 double-digit seeds play beyond this weekend.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.2

This is up slightly from last season, when the projection was 1.0, and ended up without a single #1 in the Final Four for the first time in 12 years. Expect to see one or possibly two make it this year.

Odds of a #1 Winning the Tournament

39.8%

This is up quite a bit from last year's 34.4%, which was the lowest I had ever seen, and resulted in a season without a #1 in the Final Four, let alone winning the title. The odds aren't terrible for one of the top teams to win it, but there are plenty of other teams with a chance.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Purdue - 75.1%

(1) UConn - 73.1%

(1) Houston - 70.4%

(2) Arizona - 69.1%

(2) Tennessee - 66.9%

(4) Auburn - 63.2%

(1) North Carolina - 61.0%

(2) Iowa State - 58.0%

(3) Creighton - 52.2%

(2) Marquette - 51.7%

(3) Illinois - 50.7%

(4) Alabama - 48.0%

(4) Duke - 47.6%

(3) Kentucky - 46.9%

(3) Baylor - 42.6%

(5) Gonzaga - 35.3%

(6) BYU - 34.0%

(4) Kansas - 32.4%

(7) Florida - 30.9%

The 1 through 4 seeds are the most likely to make the Sweet 16, other than Gonzaga, who has a better chance than Kansas. 11 of the eventual Sweet 16 were among my 16 most likely last year, including 5 seed San Diego State and 6 seed Creighton.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Purdue - 35.2%

(1) Houston - 33.9%

(2) Arizona - 29.3%

(1) UConn - 27.8%

(2) Tennessee - 23.9%

(4) Auburn - 23.0%

(1) North Carolina - 20.5%

(2) Iowa State - 15.2%

(2) Marquette - 14.2%

(3) Illinois - 13.4%

(4) Duke - 13.0%

(4) Alabama - 12.1%

(3) Creighton - 12.1%

(3) Kentucky - 10.2%

Only 1 of last season's surprising Final Four made my list last season, which was the UConn Huskies, who won the whole thing. Most seasons will see at least 2 or 3 of these teams make the Final Four.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Purdue - 12.7%

(1) Houston - 12.3%

(1) UConn - 9.7%

(2) Arizona - 9.1%

(4) Auburn - 8.1%

(2) Tennessee - 6.9%

(1) North Carolina - 5.1%

(2) Iowa State - 3.9%

(3) Illinois - 3.4%

(4) Duke - 3.1%

(2) Marquette - 3.0%

(3) Creighton - 2.6%

(4) Alabama - 2.6%

Last season, UConn had the 7th-best odds of winning it all, despite being a 4 seed, but that was still the lowest any eventual champion had appeared on this list in at least 7 years. Your eventual champion will almost definitely come from this list.

Most Common Nicknames

Cougars/Catamounts - 5

Bulldogs - 5

Wildcats - 3

Tigers - 3

Dukes - 2

Aggies - 2

Bears/Grizzlies - 2

Raiders/Red Raiders - 2

Wolf Pack/Wolfpack - 2

Eagles - 2

The Tigers led last season, but a different type of cat leads this season.

Teams by State

Texas - 6

Alabama - 4

California - 3

North Carolina - 3

Florida - 3

Kentucky - 3

South Carolina - 3

Virginia - 3

Connecticut - 2

Illinois - 2

Iowa - 2

Colorado - 2

New York - 2

Arizona - 2

Washington - 2

Michigan - 2

Wisconsin - 2

Utah - 2

Louisiana - 2

Nebraska - 2

Ohio - 2

Pennsylvania - 1

Idaho - 1

Kansas - 1

South Dakota - 1

Vermont - 1

District of Columbia - 1

Tennessee - 1

Mississippi - 1

New Jersey - 1

New Mexico - 1

Nevada - 1

Indiana - 1

Montana - 1

Oregon - 1

As usual, the most teams come from Texas, with Alabama coming in a surprising second place.

My Picks

First Round Winners

(1) UConn

(9) Northwestern

(5) San Diego State

(4) Auburn

(6) BYU

(3) Illinois

(10) Drake

(2) Iowa State

(1) North Carolina

(9) Michigan State

(12) Grand Canyon

(4) Alabama

(11) New Mexico

(3) Baylor

(10) Nevada

(2) Arizona

(1) Houston

(9) Texas A&M

(5) Wisconsin

(4) Duke

(11) NC State

(3) Kentucky

(10) Boise State/Colorado

(2) Marquette

(1) Purdue

(9) TCU

(5) Gonzaga

(4) Kansas

(11) Oregon

(3) Creighton

(10) Virginia/Colorado State

(2) Tennessee

I'm going a little high with 12 upsets, but it's tough to keep it down to 10.

Sweet 16

(1) UConn

(4) Auburn

(6) BYU

(2) Iowa State

(9) Michigan State

(4) Alabama

(11) New Mexico

(2) Arizona

(1) Houston

(5) Wisconsin

(3) Kentucky

(2) Marquette

(1) Purdue

(5) Gonzaga

(3) Creighton

(2) Tennessee

New Mexico is my Cinderella, with Michigan State also a bit of a surprise.

Elite Eight

(4) Auburn

(6) BYU

(9) Michigan State

(2) Arizona

(1) Houston

(3) Kentucky

(1) Purdue

(3) Creighton

There are a few lower seeds here, plus a couple of other smaller upsets.

Final Four

(4) Auburn

(2) Arizona

(1) Houston

(1) Purdue

Two #1 seeds, plus a couple of really strong teams that were seeded a little lower.

Championship

(4) Auburn

(1) Purdue

An upset by the Tigers sets up a showdown against Purdue, who was the top overall seed a year ago, and a repeat #1 seed.

Champions

(4) Auburn

After pulling off a win in the SEC tournament last week, the Tigers follow it up with a national title.