The NFL season starts this Thursday, with the defending champs hosting Houston in the first game since February. The NFL has added another wild card spot per conference this year, and only the top seed in each conference will earn a bye for the first round. I adjusted each team's final rating from last season after factoring in all of the roster moves, then plugged in the full schedule to determine each team's projected record and playoff seeding.
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Actual |
Proj |
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Rank |
LW |
Team |
Rating |
W |
L |
W |
L |
MOV |
SOS |
Seed |
|
1 |
2 |
Kansas City |
-12.26 |
|
|
13 |
3 |
|
|
A1 |
|
2 |
16 |
Pittsburgh |
-9.23 |
|
|
12 |
4 |
|
|
A2 |
|
3 |
3 |
San Francisco |
-8.686 |
|
|
11 |
5 |
|
|
N1 |
|
4 |
1 |
Baltimore |
-8.034 |
|
|
11 |
5 |
|
|
A5 |
|
5 |
9 |
LA Rams |
-5.104 |
|
|
10 |
6 |
|
|
N5 |
|
6 |
12 |
Buffalo |
-4.391 |
|
|
9 |
7 |
|
|
A4 |
|
7 |
11 |
Seattle |
-4.183 |
|
|
10 |
6 |
|
|
N6 |
|
8 |
4 |
New England |
-3.593 |
|
|
9 |
7 |
|
|
A6 |
|
9 |
21 |
Indianapolis |
-3.429 |
|
|
10 |
6 |
|
|
A3 |
|
10 |
17 |
Philadelphia |
-2.785 |
|
|
9 |
7 |
|
|
N3 |
|
11 |
5 |
New Orleans |
-2.363 |
|
|
9 |
7 |
|
|
N2 |
|
12 |
10 |
Green Bay |
-1.869 |
|
|
9 |
7 |
|
|
N4 |
|
13 |
20 |
Denver |
-1.766 |
|
|
9 |
7 |
|
|
A7 |
|
14 |
19 |
Chicago |
-0.228 |
|
|
9 |
7 |
|
|
N7 |
|
15 |
22 |
Cleveland |
-0.167 |
|
|
8 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
16 |
14 |
Tampa Bay |
0.7024 |
|
|
9 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
17 |
7 |
Minnesota |
0.7039 |
|
|
8 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
18 |
8 |
Dallas |
1.107 |
|
|
8 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
19 |
6 |
Tennessee |
1.4019 |
|
|
7 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
20 |
15 |
Houston |
1.7405 |
|
|
7 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
21 |
28 |
NY Jets |
2.2027 |
|
|
7 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
22 |
29 |
Cincinnati |
2.9148 |
|
|
7 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
23 |
23 |
Arizona |
3.7656 |
|
|
7 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
24 |
24 |
Detroit |
4.532 |
|
|
7 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
25 |
31 |
Miami |
4.6853 |
|
|
6 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
26 |
13 |
Atlanta |
4.9996 |
|
|
7 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
27 |
18 |
LA Chargers |
6.7254 |
|
|
6 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
28 |
26 |
Jacksonville |
7.9766 |
|
|
5 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
29 |
25 |
Las Vegas |
8.9923 |
|
|
5 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
30 |
27 |
Carolina |
9.3843 |
|
|
5 |
11 |
|
|
|
|
31 |
30 |
NY Giants |
10.531 |
|
|
4 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
32 |
32 |
Washington |
11.238 |
|
|
4 |
12 |
|
|
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Pittsburgh looks to return to the playoffs after falling just short last year with Ben Roethlisberger out with an elbow injury, but with him at full health, I project them to leapfrog Baltimore to take the division crown. Also projected to make the playoffs this year after missing out last year are Indianapolis and Denver, both of which were 7-9 at the end of last season.
In the NFC, Chicago and the LA Rams are projected to improve enough to get back into the playoffs, while Tampa Bay falls just short in Tom Brady's first season in Florida.
Playoff Picks
Wild Card
(2) Steelers over (7) Broncos
(6) Patriots over (3) Colts
(5) Ravens over (4) Bills
(2) Saints over (7) Bears
(6) Seahawks over (3) Eagles
(5) Rams over (4) Packers
Divisional
(1) Chiefs over (6) Patriots
(2) Steelers over (5) Ravens
(1) 49ers over (6) Seahawks
(5) Rams over (2) Saints
Conference
(1) Chiefs over (2) Steelers
(1) 49ers over (5) Rams
Super Bowl
(1) Chiefs over (1) 49ers
The Chiefs will repeat as champions in a rematch of last year's Super Bowl.
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