College Football Rankings - 23 Oct

Even with Penn State's upset of Ohio State yesterday, the top 6 in this week's rankings remain unchanged, but with the Buckeyes' margin over #4 Louisville shrinking substantially, from nearly 6 points a week ago to about 1.5 this week. There are just 9 undefeated teams left, and only 2 are projected to maintain that status through the end of the regular season, and I have provided each undefeated team's most likely losses and chances of remaining undefeated below the rankings:

				Rec		ProjRec
TW	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	SOS	MOV
1	1	Michigan	-31.59	7	0	11	1	11	1
2	2	Alabama	-30.7	8	0	12	0	8	3
3	3	Ohio State	-26.33	6	1	10	2	10	4
4	4	Louisville	-24.78	6	1	11	1	14	5
5	5	Washington	-21.73	7	0	11	1	115	2
6	6	Clemson	-21.17	7	0	11	1	38	10
7	9	Colorado	-19.81	6	2	10	2	28	12
8	7	Western Michigan	-19.4	8	0	12	0	77	6
9	10	Wisconsin	-18.82	5	2	10	2	2	35
10	8	Texas A&M	-18.81	6	1	10	2	33	20
11	16	Auburn	-17.06	5	2	8	4	15	14
12	18	LSU	-15.87	5	2	7	4	52	23
13	24	Virginia Tech	-14.58	5	2	9	3	72	13
14	15	USC	-14.44	4	3	7	5	3	48
15	20	West Virginia	-13.8	6	0	10	2	98	19
16	14	Florida State	-13.67	5	2	8	4	29	46
17	21	Florida	-13.65	5	1	8	3	23	11
18	17	Washington State	-13.63	5	2	8	4	62	22
19	27	Baylor	-13.23	6	0	10	2	127	7
20	11	Miami (FL)	-13.08	4	3	8	4	57	26
21	23	Boise State	-12.97	7	0	11	1	16	21
22	33	Penn State	-12.11	5	2	9	3	5	68
23	25	Troy	-12.01	6	1	10	2	97	9
24	12	Ole Miss	-11.8	3	4	6	6	32	54
25	22	Oklahoma	-11.46	5	2	8	4	9	43
26	29	Tennessee	-11.31	5	2	9	3	4	76
27	19	Nebraska	-10.92	7	0	9	3	25	16
28	35	Brigham Young	-10.43	4	4	8	4	6	55
29	13	Houston	-10.13	6	2	8	4	83	15
30	36	North Carolina	-10.02	6	2	9	3	36	38
31	44	Western Kentucky	-9.861	5	3	9	3	50	30
32	30	Stanford	-9.619	4	3	8	4	1	87
33	34	Toledo	-9.575	6	1	9	3	122	8
34	26	North Carolina State	-9.115	4	3	7	5	43	53
35	28	UCLA	-8.77	3	5	5	7	7	64
36	46	Utah	-8.769	7	1	9	3	54	31
37	45	Temple	-8.535	5	3	8	4	61	36
38	31	South Florida	-8.498	6	2	8	4	87	25
39	50	Middle Tennessee	-8.401	5	2	10	2	79	27
40	37	UCF	-8.013	4	3	7	5	69	32
41	41	Appalachian State	-7.953	5	2	9	3	17	37
42	51	Oklahoma State	-7.3	5	2	7	5	110	29
43	32	Memphis	-7.003	5	2	8	4	109	28
44	39	Kansas State	-6.401	4	3	7	5	70	47
45	43	Wake Forest	-6.393	5	2	8	4	65	49
46	48	Pittsburgh	-6.135	5	2	7	5	80	39
47	53	Iowa	-5.756	5	3	6	6	93	33
48	42	Minnesota	-5.594	5	2	7	5	89	45
49	60	Louisiana Tech	-5.225	5	3	8	4	99	24
50	49	Missouri	-5.161	2	5	5	7	41	75
51	54	California	-5.091	4	3	6	6	13	61
52	47	Arizona State	-5.036	5	3	7	5	37	77
53	52	Northwestern	-4.986	4	3	6	6	71	62
54	63	Tulsa	-4.848	5	2	8	4	95	40
55	59	Navy	-4.682	5	1	8	4	116	44
56	57	Maryland	-4.534	5	2	7	5	107	34
57	64	San Diego State	-4.005	6	1	9	3	126	17
58	38	Arkansas	-3.875	5	3	7	5	34	93
59	40	Army	-3.642	4	3	7	5	123	18
60	73	Texas	-3.42	3	4	6	6	18	60
61	55	Texas Tech	-3.24	3	4	5	7	78	69
62	58	Georgia Tech	-3.178	4	3	6	6	76	73
63	61	Wyoming	-3.151	5	2	8	4	94	41
64	56	TCU	-3.013	4	3	6	6	85	56
65	66	Oregon	-2.807	2	5	4	8	35	96
66	70	Notre Dame	-2.178	2	5	4	8	20	66
67	79	Georgia State	-1.83	2	5	6	6	63	84
68	65	Indiana	-1.774	3	4	5	7	12	83
69	77	Akron	-1.466	5	3	8	4	59	65
70	69	Duke	-1.422	3	4	4	8	55	82
71	62	Air Force	-1.353	4	3	7	5	113	57
72	71	Georgia	-1.264	4	3	6	6	58	81
73	74	Vanderbilt	-1.2	4	4	5	7	49	74
74	72	Central Michigan	-0.885	5	3	8	4	64	70
75	76	Eastern Michigan	-0.777	5	3	8	4	60	63
76	82	Colorado State	-0.731	4	4	6	6	51	78
77	75	Southern Miss	-0.655	4	3	7	5	101	51
78	98	Southern Methodist	-0.616	3	4	5	7	44	89
79	78	Oregon State	-0.22	2	5	4	8	31	111
80	68	Georgia Southern	-0.13	4	3	6	6	106	42
81	86	Illinois	0.1822	2	5	4	8	40	102
82	67	Old Dominion	0.2174	4	3	8	4	96	59
83	81	Utah State	0.8374	3	4	5	7	90	71
84	105	North Texas	1.0394	4	3	6	6	91	72
85	91	Syracuse	1.7614	4	4	5	7	46	98
86	88	Arizona	2.2927	2	5	3	9	45	112
87	80	Ball State	2.9776	4	4	5	7	105	58
88	87	Kentucky	3.0581	4	3	6	6	19	101
89	93	Michigan State	3.4495	2	5	3	9	48	107
90	102	New Mexico	3.4967	4	3	6	6	125	52
91	94	Ohio	3.6638	5	3	7	5	120	50
92	85	Tulane	3.6895	3	4	4	8	104	80
93	96	Mississippi State	3.7308	2	5	3	9	22	79
94	83	East Carolina	4.1274	2	5	4	8	53	100
95	95	Northern Illinois	4.495	2	6	4	8	67	95
96	84	UTSA	4.6347	4	3	6	6	121	67
97	89	Boston College	4.9259	3	4	4	8	108	90
98	104	Hawaii	5.0113	4	4	6	7	74	86
99	108	Rutgers	5.7663	2	6	3	9	24	126
100	103	Cincinnati	6.0613	4	3	5	7	118	85
101	90	UNLV	6.0639	3	5	5	7	86	88
102	99	Kent State	6.0841	2	6	3	9	128	91
103	92	South Carolina	6.1426	3	4	4	8	21	99
104	106	South Alabama	6.2269	3	4	6	6	112	92
105	100	Connecticut	6.2914	3	5	4	8	73	103
106	97	Virginia	7.1314	2	5	2	10	81	106
107	101	Idaho	7.1749	4	4	6	6	47	108
108	107	Iowa State	7.3002	1	6	2	10	68	110
109	115	Purdue	8.8473	3	4	4	8	100	105
110	119	Louisiana-Lafayette	9.4037	3	4	5	7	119	94
111	110	Marshall	9.7414	2	5	3	9	111	109
112	117	Rice	9.9464	1	6	3	9	75	115
113	118	Miami (OH)	10.346	2	6	3	9	92	104
114	113	Arkansas State	10.511	2	4	4	8	103	117
115	111	Kansas	12.036	1	6	2	10	66	125
116	114	Fresno State	12.07	1	7	3	9	56	116
117	120	Charlotte	12.606	3	5	4	8	84	113
118	109	Louisiana-Monroe	13.19	2	5	3	9	82	118
119	122	Nevada	13.787	3	5	4	8	124	97
120	116	Bowling Green	14.482	1	7	2	10	42	128
121	121	Florida Atlantic	15.169	1	6	2	10	114	114
122	123	Massachusetts	15.647	1	7	2	10	26	123
123	124	San Jose State	15.655	2	6	3	9	88	121
124	112	Texas State	16.038	2	5	3	9	102	120
125	127	New Mexico State	16.77	2	5	3	9	27	122
126	125	Florida International	17.238	3	5	3	9	39	119
127	128	UTEP	19.99	1	6	2	10	30	127
128	126	Buffalo	20.133	1	6	2	10	117	124

Alabama

Chance of no losses: 72.3%
Most Likely Loss: @LSU - 24.4%
Most Likely First Loss: @LSU - 24.4%

Baylor

Chance of no losses: 4.0%
Most Likely Loss: @West Virginia - 65.7%
Most Likely First Loss: @Texas - 37.4%
Also Watch: @Oklahoma - 39.4%, @Texas Tech - 37.0%

Boise State

Chance of no losses: 35.1%
Most Likely Loss: @Wyoming - 37.4%
Most Likely First Loss: @Wyoming - 37.4%
Also Watch: @Air Force - 32.6%

Clemson

Chance of no losses: 41.6%
Most Likely Loss: @Florida State - 43.7%
Most Likely First Loss: @Florida State - 43.7%

Michigan

Chance of no losses: 49.5%
Most Likely Loss: @Ohio State - 49.8%
Most Likely First Loss: @Ohio State - 49.2%

Nebraska

Chance of no losses: 0.1%
Most Likely Loss: @Ohio State - 98.7%
Most Likely First Loss: @Wisconsin - 83.9%
Also Watch: @Iowa - 50.1%

Washington

Chance of no losses: 27.1%
Most Likely Loss: @Washington State - 42.1%
Most Likely First Loss: @Utah - 29.2%

West Virginia

Chance of no losses: 14.2%
Most Likely Loss: @Oklahoma State - 46.5%
Most Likely First Loss: @Oklahoma State - 46.5%
Also Watch: @Texas - 35.9%, @Baylor - 34.3%

Western Michigan

Chance of no losses: 79.9%
Most Likely Loss: Toledo - 11.9%
Most Likely First Loss: Toledo - 10.8%

The most likely first loss takes into account the team's chance of being undefeated when they reach the game in question, which is why Nebraska's most likely first loss is not the same as its most likely loss, and why Michigan's odds against Ohio State are different in each case, since there is a tiny chance they will not be unbeaten when they reach that game.