Sunday, October 23, 2016

College Football Rankings - 23 Oct

Even with Penn State's upset of Ohio State yesterday, the top 6 in this week's rankings remain unchanged, but with the Buckeyes' margin over #4 Louisville shrinking substantially, from nearly 6 points a week ago to about 1.5 this week. There are just 9 undefeated teams left, and only 2 are projected to maintain that status through the end of the regular season, and I have provided each undefeated team's most likely losses and chances of remaining undefeated below the rankings:





Rec
ProjRec

TW
LW
Team
Rating
W
L
W
L
SOS
MOV
1
1
Michigan
-31.59
7
0
11
1
11
1
2
2
Alabama
-30.7
8
0
12
0
8
3
3
3
Ohio State
-26.33
6
1
10
2
10
4
4
4
Louisville
-24.78
6
1
11
1
14
5
5
5
Washington
-21.73
7
0
11
1
115
2
6
6
Clemson
-21.17
7
0
11
1
38
10
7
9
Colorado
-19.81
6
2
10
2
28
12
8
7
Western Michigan
-19.4
8
0
12
0
77
6
9
10
Wisconsin
-18.82
5
2
10
2
2
35
10
8
Texas A&M
-18.81
6
1
10
2
33
20
11
16
Auburn
-17.06
5
2
8
4
15
14
12
18
LSU
-15.87
5
2
7
4
52
23
13
24
Virginia Tech
-14.58
5
2
9
3
72
13
14
15
USC
-14.44
4
3
7
5
3
48
15
20
West Virginia
-13.8
6
0
10
2
98
19
16
14
Florida State
-13.67
5
2
8
4
29
46
17
21
Florida
-13.65
5
1
8
3
23
11
18
17
Washington State
-13.63
5
2
8
4
62
22
19
27
Baylor
-13.23
6
0
10
2
127
7
20
11
Miami (FL)
-13.08
4
3
8
4
57
26
21
23
Boise State
-12.97
7
0
11
1
16
21
22
33
Penn State
-12.11
5
2
9
3
5
68
23
25
Troy
-12.01
6
1
10
2
97
9
24
12
Ole Miss
-11.8
3
4
6
6
32
54
25
22
Oklahoma
-11.46
5
2
8
4
9
43
26
29
Tennessee
-11.31
5
2
9
3
4
76
27
19
Nebraska
-10.92
7
0
9
3
25
16
28
35
Brigham Young
-10.43
4
4
8
4
6
55
29
13
Houston
-10.13
6
2
8
4
83
15
30
36
North Carolina
-10.02
6
2
9
3
36
38
31
44
Western Kentucky
-9.861
5
3
9
3
50
30
32
30
Stanford
-9.619
4
3
8
4
1
87
33
34
Toledo
-9.575
6
1
9
3
122
8
34
26
North Carolina State
-9.115
4
3
7
5
43
53
35
28
UCLA
-8.77
3
5
5
7
7
64
36
46
Utah
-8.769
7
1
9
3
54
31
37
45
Temple
-8.535
5
3
8
4
61
36
38
31
South Florida
-8.498
6
2
8
4
87
25
39
50
Middle Tennessee
-8.401
5
2
10
2
79
27
40
37
UCF
-8.013
4
3
7
5
69
32
41
41
Appalachian State
-7.953
5
2
9
3
17
37
42
51
Oklahoma State
-7.3
5
2
7
5
110
29
43
32
Memphis
-7.003
5
2
8
4
109
28
44
39
Kansas State
-6.401
4
3
7
5
70
47
45
43
Wake Forest
-6.393
5
2
8
4
65
49
46
48
Pittsburgh
-6.135
5
2
7
5
80
39
47
53
Iowa
-5.756
5
3
6
6
93
33
48
42
Minnesota
-5.594
5
2
7
5
89
45
49
60
Louisiana Tech
-5.225
5
3
8
4
99
24
50
49
Missouri
-5.161
2
5
5
7
41
75
51
54
California
-5.091
4
3
6
6
13
61
52
47
Arizona State
-5.036
5
3
7
5
37
77
53
52
Northwestern
-4.986
4
3
6
6
71
62
54
63
Tulsa
-4.848
5
2
8
4
95
40
55
59
Navy
-4.682
5
1
8
4
116
44
56
57
Maryland
-4.534
5
2
7
5
107
34
57
64
San Diego State
-4.005
6
1
9
3
126
17
58
38
Arkansas
-3.875
5
3
7
5
34
93
59
40
Army
-3.642
4
3
7
5
123
18
60
73
Texas
-3.42
3
4
6
6
18
60
61
55
Texas Tech
-3.24
3
4
5
7
78
69
62
58
Georgia Tech
-3.178
4
3
6
6
76
73
63
61
Wyoming
-3.151
5
2
8
4
94
41
64
56
TCU
-3.013
4
3
6
6
85
56
65
66
Oregon
-2.807
2
5
4
8
35
96
66
70
Notre Dame
-2.178
2
5
4
8
20
66
67
79
Georgia State
-1.83
2
5
6
6
63
84
68
65
Indiana
-1.774
3
4
5
7
12
83
69
77
Akron
-1.466
5
3
8
4
59
65
70
69
Duke
-1.422
3
4
4
8
55
82
71
62
Air Force
-1.353
4
3
7
5
113
57
72
71
Georgia
-1.264
4
3
6
6
58
81
73
74
Vanderbilt
-1.2
4
4
5
7
49
74
74
72
Central Michigan
-0.885
5
3
8
4
64
70
75
76
Eastern Michigan
-0.777
5
3
8
4
60
63
76
82
Colorado State
-0.731
4
4
6
6
51
78
77
75
Southern Miss
-0.655
4
3
7
5
101
51
78
98
Southern Methodist
-0.616
3
4
5
7
44
89
79
78
Oregon State
-0.22
2
5
4
8
31
111
80
68
Georgia Southern
-0.13
4
3
6
6
106
42
81
86
Illinois
0.1822
2
5
4
8
40
102
82
67
Old Dominion
0.2174
4
3
8
4
96
59
83
81
Utah State
0.8374
3
4
5
7
90
71
84
105
North Texas
1.0394
4
3
6
6
91
72
85
91
Syracuse
1.7614
4
4
5
7
46
98
86
88
Arizona
2.2927
2
5
3
9
45
112
87
80
Ball State
2.9776
4
4
5
7
105
58
88
87
Kentucky
3.0581
4
3
6
6
19
101
89
93
Michigan State
3.4495
2
5
3
9
48
107
90
102
New Mexico
3.4967
4
3
6
6
125
52
91
94
Ohio
3.6638
5
3
7
5
120
50
92
85
Tulane
3.6895
3
4
4
8
104
80
93
96
Mississippi State
3.7308
2
5
3
9
22
79
94
83
East Carolina
4.1274
2
5
4
8
53
100
95
95
Northern Illinois
4.495
2
6
4
8
67
95
96
84
UTSA
4.6347
4
3
6
6
121
67
97
89
Boston College
4.9259
3
4
4
8
108
90
98
104
Hawaii
5.0113
4
4
6
7
74
86
99
108
Rutgers
5.7663
2
6
3
9
24
126
100
103
Cincinnati
6.0613
4
3
5
7
118
85
101
90
UNLV
6.0639
3
5
5
7
86
88
102
99
Kent State
6.0841
2
6
3
9
128
91
103
92
South Carolina
6.1426
3
4
4
8
21
99
104
106
South Alabama
6.2269
3
4
6
6
112
92
105
100
Connecticut
6.2914
3
5
4
8
73
103
106
97
Virginia
7.1314
2
5
2
10
81
106
107
101
Idaho
7.1749
4
4
6
6
47
108
108
107
Iowa State
7.3002
1
6
2
10
68
110
109
115
Purdue
8.8473
3
4
4
8
100
105
110
119
Louisiana-Lafayette
9.4037
3
4
5
7
119
94
111
110
Marshall
9.7414
2
5
3
9
111
109
112
117
Rice
9.9464
1
6
3
9
75
115
113
118
Miami (OH)
10.346
2
6
3
9
92
104
114
113
Arkansas State
10.511
2
4
4
8
103
117
115
111
Kansas
12.036
1
6
2
10
66
125
116
114
Fresno State
12.07
1
7
3
9
56
116
117
120
Charlotte
12.606
3
5
4
8
84
113
118
109
Louisiana-Monroe
13.19
2
5
3
9
82
118
119
122
Nevada
13.787
3
5
4
8
124
97
120
116
Bowling Green
14.482
1
7
2
10
42
128
121
121
Florida Atlantic
15.169
1
6
2
10
114
114
122
123
Massachusetts
15.647
1
7
2
10
26
123
123
124
San Jose State
15.655
2
6
3
9
88
121
124
112
Texas State
16.038
2
5
3
9
102
120
125
127
New Mexico State
16.77
2
5
3
9
27
122
126
125
Florida International
17.238
3
5
3
9
39
119
127
128
UTEP
19.99
1
6
2
10
30
127
128
126
Buffalo
20.133
1
6
2
10
117
124

Alabama

Chance of no losses: 72.3%
Most Likely Loss: @LSU - 24.4%
Most Likely First Loss: @LSU - 24.4%

Baylor

Chance of no losses: 4.0%
Most Likely Loss: @West Virginia - 65.7%
Most Likely First Loss: @Texas - 37.4%
Also Watch: @Oklahoma - 39.4%, @Texas Tech - 37.0%

Boise State

Chance of no losses: 35.1%
Most Likely Loss: @Wyoming - 37.4%
Most Likely First Loss: @Wyoming - 37.4%
Also Watch: @Air Force - 32.6%

Clemson

Chance of no losses: 41.6%
Most Likely Loss: @Florida State - 43.7%
Most Likely First Loss: @Florida State - 43.7%

Michigan

Chance of no losses: 49.5%
Most Likely Loss: @Ohio State - 49.8%
Most Likely First Loss: @Ohio State - 49.2%

Nebraska

Chance of no losses: 0.1%
Most Likely Loss: @Ohio State - 98.7%
Most Likely First Loss: @Wisconsin - 83.9%
Also Watch: @Iowa - 50.1%

Washington

Chance of no losses: 27.1%
Most Likely Loss: @Washington State - 42.1%
Most Likely First Loss: @Utah - 29.2%

West Virginia

Chance of no losses: 14.2%
Most Likely Loss: @Oklahoma State - 46.5%
Most Likely First Loss: @Oklahoma State - 46.5%
Also Watch: @Texas - 35.9%, @Baylor - 34.3%

Western Michigan

Chance of no losses: 79.9%
Most Likely Loss: Toledo - 11.9%
Most Likely First Loss: Toledo - 10.8%

The most likely first loss takes into account the team's chance of being undefeated when they reach the game in question, which is why Nebraska's most likely first loss is not the same as its most likely loss, and why Michigan's odds against Ohio State are different in each case, since there is a tiny chance they will not be unbeaten when they reach that game.

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