4 years ago, I shared the results of a long-term project I had been working on here on my blog, the top 100 NBA Players of All Time, using statistics, playoff performance, and longevity to determine which basketball players were better than others. I unveiled the rankings one at a time from June 2011 to June 2012, and you can still take a look at them by checking the blog archive on the left side of this screen. (Click on "View web version" at the bottom first if you are viewing this on your phone.)
For the past few years I have been working on a formula for ranking the top NFL Quarterbacks of All Time, and I have spent a lot of time making sure that the players have similar credentials to those that made by Top 100 NBA list. I ran a multiple regression analysis to determine which statistics were most important in determining team success, and used the resulting formula to rank every quarterback in every season since 1932, when the league began tracking passing statistics.
Within each season, I ranked the players by average value per game, using total possible regular season games since a player is not helping his team when he is not playing. I also added in playoff statistics as extra credit, giving players who led their teams to the playoffs and those that won playoff games a little more of a boost. I then found the average value for a starter and awarded each player above that level points for how high they were above that average for the season. Players below the average were not rewarded or penalized. The players totals for each season were then totaled into a career value, which were ranked from 1 to 217. This method allows for players to be recognized for sustained productivity or short periods of excellence, with the players at the top showing sustained excellence.
One of the criteria most often used to determine excellence in quarterbacks is Super Bowl wins, with Super Bowl losses often being viewed as complete failure. While neither of these is completely true, neither is completely false either. Winning the Super Bowl, especially multiple times, is often a good sign of a great player, but some who have won the biggest game were no more than placeholders for teams that won mostly by running the ball or using suffocating defense. For this reason, there are several Super Bowl champs that did not make this list, including two-time winner Bob Griese, who was not a great passer, but ran a team with bruising running backs.
The evolution of the position has caused modern players to show up more often on this list than many of the early greats, with no player in the top ten playing before 1979, and 10 active quarterbacks ranked among the top 50 of all time. There are still several older QB's on the list, including a few who played their entire careers before the Super Bowl was even created.
I plan to begin unveiling my rankings tomorrow with #50, and will continue for the next several months. I hope you enjoy following through this process and learning a bit more about some of these players in the process.
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