The first round has ended, with only 2 lower seeds advancing out of the first round, both from the #5 position. Round 2 starts today, so I've updated my odds of each team continuing to advance through the playoffs, along with my picks for the winner and length of each remaining round, which have changed just slightly since the playoffs began.
Odds of Winning Second Round
1. Warriors - 93.5% (-0.4)
2. Hawks - 78.0% (+16.6)
3. Clippers - 73.0% (+39.1)
4. Cavaliers - 58.5% (-13.8)
5. Bulls - 41.5% (+14.7)
6. Rockets - 27.0% (+5.2)
7. Wizards - 22.0% (-13.2)
8. Grizzlies - 6.5% (+0.7)
The Clippers, Hawks, and Bulls all improved their odds of winning this round by a lot over the past 5 days, mostly due to finishing out their first round series. The Wizards' odds dropped off due to Atlanta beating Brooklyn, which had a 15.9% chance 5 days ago of taking the series and giving Washington home court in the next round.
Odds of Making NBA Finals
1. Warriors - 72.3% (+3.5)
2. Cavaliers - 36.6% (-15.0)
3. Hawks - 35.8% (+9.7)
4. Bulls - 23.7% (+8.8)
5. Clippers - 22.6% (+12.7)
6. Wizards - 3.8% (-3.2)
7. Rockets - 3.6% (+0.9)
8. Grizzlies - 1.5% (+0.3)
The Spurs' loss in the first round boosted both the Clippers, who weren't expected to be here, and the Warriors, who expected to face them in the conference finals. Cleveland was not happy to see both Atlanta and Chicago wake up from their doldrums to advance, making the Eastern Conference race a very tight one.
Odds of Winning NBA Finals
1. Warriors - 62.4% (+2.2)
2. Clippers - 15.8% (+8.7)
3. Cavaliers - 8.4% (-3.0)
4. Hawks - 6.6% (+3.0)
5. Bulls - 4.5% (+2.8)
6. Rockets - 1.6% (+0.3)
Neither 5-seed is going to win three straight series on the road, so they aren't even worth showing here. The Clippers earned the biggest boost after knocking out the defending champs, with only Cleveland slipping after seeing its biggest competition stay alive.
Playoff Picks
Second Round
Hawks over Wizards in 6
Cavaliers over Bulls in 7
Warriors over Grizzlies in 5
Clippers over Rockets in 6
The only two changes I made here were switching out Toronto and San Antonio for Washington and LA. The series length predictions are all the same as originally predicted.
Conference Finals
Cavaliers over Hawks in 7
Warriors over Clippers in 7
I changed Golden State's opponent here, but not the length of the series. I also switched my Eastern Conference pick to Cleveland winning in 7 rather than Atlanta.
NBA Finals
Warriors over Cavaliers in 6
Just switching opponents in the Finals, but still taking Golden State to get their first title in 40 years.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA Playoffs
Washington at Atlanta - Hawks by 6
Memphis at Golden State - Warriors by 9
Prediction Results
NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 29-12 overall (.707)
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