Monday, April 4, 2011

NBA Rankings and Playoff Odds - 4 Apr

We are now in the home stretch of the NBA season. 12 teams have clinched playoff berths already, and there are 7 teams still in contention for the final 4 spots. With my usual overall rankings today, I'm also adding in the projected order of finish below, along with odds of each team making and winning the Finals. The rankings have team name followed by weekly record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Miami (3-1) (54-23) -7.07 (2)
2. LA Lakers (2-1) (55-21) -6.86 (3)
3. Chicago (3-1) (56-20) -6.73 (1)
4. San Antonio (1-3) (58-19) -6.30 (4)
5. Boston (2-2) (53-23) -5.56 (5)
6. Denver (3-0) (47-29) -5.30 (7)
7. Orlando (1-3) (48-29) -5.04 (6)
8. Dallas (1-3) (53-24) -4.19 (8)
9. Oklahoma City (2-2) (50-26) -3.75 (9)
10. Memphis (3-0) (44-33) -3.21 (10)
11. Houston (3-1) (41-36) -2.76 (11)
12. Portland (3-1) (45-32) -2.62 (13)
13. New Orleans (2-1) (44-33) -2.40 (12)
14. Philadelphia (3-1) (40-37) -1.88 (14)
15. New York (3-0) (38-38) -0.59 (16)
16. Atlanta (2-1) (44-33) -0.23 (17)
17. Phoenix (1-3) (37-39) -0.04 (15)
18. Milwaukee (2-2) (31-45) 0.78 (18)
19. Indiana (3-1) (35-43) 1.23 (20)
20. Utah (0-3) (36-41) 1.51 (19)
21. Golden State (1-2) (33-44) 2.06 (21)
22. LA Clippers (1-2) (30-47) 2.24 (22)
23. Detroit (0-3) (26-50) 3.59 (24)
24. Charlotte (2-2) (32-44) 3.71 (23)
25. Sacramento (2-2) (22-54) 4.34 (25)
26. Minnesota (0-3) (17-60) 5.27 (26)
27. Toronto (1-2) (21-55) 5.62 (28)
28. New Jersey (0-4) (23-53) 5.65 (27)
29. Washington (3-1) (20-56) 7.09 (29)
30. Cleveland (1-3) (15-61) 9.14 (30)

April Flowers

The Philadelphia 76ers started off the week very well, beating the Bulls in Chicago by 12 points before beating the Rockets by 11 two nights later. Both teams had a lot to play for, but the 76ers showed that they deserve the playoff berth they clinched this week by beating both.

Not only did the Washington Wizards avoid tying the all-time record for least road wins in a season when they beat Utah on Monday, but they distanced themselves from it by winning their third road game of the season yesterday in Charlotte.

Portland faced 3 Western Conference playoff teams this week, which makes their 3-1 record this week even more impressive. They beat San Antonio on the road and Dallas and Oklahoma City at home, with a loss to New Orleans as the only blemish on a very strong week.

It may be strange to say that a team that won only once this week is hot, but that's exactly what happens when that team is the Cleveland Cavaliers, and that victory is over the Miami Heat. They lost all three of their road games this week, but beating the Heat and local villain LeBron James probably meant more to them anyway.

Memphis did exactly what they had to this week, winning all three of their games by double digits to solidify their hold on one of the final playoff spots in the West. Especially important was their win over New Orleans, the team they are currently tied with for the 7th seed. If they beat them again this week they earn the tiebreak over them.

April Fools

After losing a tough game to the Lakers in the middle of the week, the Dallas Mavericks seemed to resign themselves to the fact that they will be the third seed in the West, and that they had nothing left to play for in the regular season, which showed quite clearly in losses at Golden State and Portland later in the week.

No one expected the Charlotte Bobcats to win in Orlando this week, but when you're sitting outside the playoff race but still alive, you need to be able to beat the Washington Wizards, a team that had only won twice on the road all season, when they visit your home court late in the season.

So much for the good signs that New Jersey showed after the Deron Williams trade. The Nets have now lost 10 of their last 11 games, and the lone victory was an overtime victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers, not exactly the quality win that would make this cold streak look a little nicer.

Orlando just could not win a road game this week, losing close ones to New York, Atlanta, and Toronto, all teams that are far inferior to the Magic, a team that claims to have championship ambitions. If they keep playing like this, they'll be waiting for next year again.

Last week the Chicago Bulls were one of the hottest teams in the league. This week, even though they lost only once, that loss came to the only playoff-caliber team they faced, the Philadelphia 76ers. Their 3 victories were all unimpressive wins over even less impressive teams that gave up on the playoffs months ago.

Seeding Projections

Here are my projected final standings for each conference, with projected record in parentheses. Only teams still mathematically alive are included.

East

1. Chicago (60-22)
2. Miami (58-24)
3. Boston (57-25)
4. Orlando (51-31)
5. Atlanta (46-36)
6. Philadelphia (43-39)
7. New York (41-41)
8. Indiana (37-45)

9. Milwaukee (34-48)
10. Charlotte (34-48)

West

1. San Antonio (61-21)
2. LA Lakers (59-23)
3. Dallas (56-26)
4. Oklahoma City (53-29)
5. Denver (51-31)
6. Portland (48-34)
7. Memphis (47-35)
8. New Orleans (47-35)

9. Houston (44-38)

Playoff Odds

First Round

Odds of each projected top-4 seed winning their first round series.

1. Chicago - 78.4
2. Miami - 73.3
3. Orlando - 67.7
4. San Antonio - 64.6
5. Boston - 63.9
6. LA Lakers - 63.8
7. Dallas - 56.7
8. Oklahoma City - 46.1

As you can see, the top 4 seeds in the East all look pretty strong as far as advancing through the first round is involved. Oklahoma City is the top seed I feel is most likely to lose in the first round, but I would guess that there will be as many as three top seeds falling in the first round.

Finals

These are the odds of each team winning their conference and advancing to the Finals.

1. Chicago - 27.6
2. Miami - 25.7
3. LA Lakers - 22.8
4. San Antonio - 20.8
5. Boston - 16.7
6. Orlando - 16.2
7. Denver - 14.1
8. Dallas - 12.2
9. Oklahoma City - 9.7
10. Memphis - 7.5
11. Portland - 7.1
12. New Orleans - 5.9
13. Philadelphia - 5.2
14. Atlanta - 3.4
15. New York - 3.3
16. Indiana - 1.9

Champions

These are the odds of each team winning the championship this season.

1. Chicago - 15.6
2. Miami - 14.6
3. LA Lakers - 12.6
4. San Antonio - 11.3
5. Boston - 8.7
6. Orlando - 8.0
7. Denver - 6.8
8. Dallas - 5.5
9. Oklahoma City - 4.2
10. Memphis - 3.1
11. Portland - 2.8
12. New Orleans - 2.3
13. Philadelphia - 2.0
14T. Atlanta - 1.1
14T. New York - 1.1
16. Indiana - 0.5

The top two seeds in each conference have the strongest odds of winning the championship, as would be expected. There is a 54.1% chance that one of those 4 teams will wind up holding up the trophy at the end of the season.

NBA Player of the Day

LeBron James - MIA - 31 pts, 11 reb, 7 ast, 3 stl, 13-18 FG, 5-8 FT
LeBron showed off his all-around skills once again as he led Miami to a road victory over New Jersey, a win which clinched the division title for the Heat, the first time they have accomplished that since 2007. The only thing he struggled in last night was turning the ball over, which he did 7 times out of his team's 15.

Predictions - 4 Apr

Possible upsets are underlined.

NCAA Tournament

(8) Butler vs. (3) Connecticut - UConn by 4

Prediction Results - 3 Apr

NBA: 7-4 (.636) 683-283 overall (.707)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 170-115 overall (.596)

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