It's time for March Madness. I've taken the results of every game from this season and plugged them into my formula, and plugged all of that data into the bracket to determine each team's chances of winning a game against any potential opponent in order to determine each team's overall odds of winning the championship in 3 weeks. Here is my breakdown of the tournament, including my own picks for the winner of each game:
Best Teams Left Out
(35) Ohio State
(42) SMU
(45) Indiana
(47) West Virginia
Only 4 teams ranked lower than these 4 were selected to the field as at-large teams, which makes this the smallest group I can recall in over a decade of posting my tourney odds. If you are filling out an NIT bracket, these are some good teams to consider.
Worst At-Large Teams Selected
(48) Texas
(51) Vanderbilt
(53) San Diego State
(55) Utah State
These are the 4 lowest-ranked at-large teams to make the field by my formula. There were 7 teams on this list last season, and 5 of them lost in their first game, including South Carolina, who was a 6-seed and was upset by an 11. The two that won their first game lost over the first weekend, so none of them reached the Sweet 16, and it's likely to be the same for these 4.
Teams that are Better than their Seed
1. Gonzaga
2. Louisville
3. VCU
4. UC San Diego
5. Kansas
6. North Carolina
There were 8 teams on this list last season, and 4 of them pulled off first-round upsets, so these teams could be dangerous, at least in the first round or two.
Teams that are Worse than their Seed
1. Memphis
2. Oregon
3. Texas A&M
4. Oklahoma
5. Utah State
Of the 11 teams on this list last season, 5 were upset during the first weekend, another lost in a play-in game, and one lost to another team on the list. These teams are ones that will most likely not make deep runs in the tournament, and could easily be gone earlier than expected.
Projected First Round Upsets
8.7
This is down from last season's projection of 9.3, and 10.7 the year before, meaning that there may not be as many upsets this Thursday and Friday. There ended up being 11 last season, just above the projection, and this season's range should be between 7 and 10.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
(9) Baylor over (8) Mississippi State - 49.8%
(12) Colorado State over (5) Memphis - 49.2%
(11) VCU over (6) BYU - 47.7%
(9) Oklahoma over (8) UConn - 45.5%
(12) UC San Diego over (5) Michigan - 43.40%
(11) San Diego State/North Carolina over (6) Ole Miss - 43.38%
(10) New Mexico over (7) Marquette - 42.6%
(9) Creighton over (8) Louisville - 42.2%
This is the shortest list of potential upsets I have ever made. Last year's list had 11 potential upsets, and 6 of them ended up happening, so these games are the best bets if you are looking for someone to unexpectedly win in the first round.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Win a Game
(15) Bryant over (2) Michigan State - 13.3%
(15) Wofford over (2) Tennessee - 10.6%
(15) Omaha over (2) St. John's - 7.2%
(15) Robert Morris over (2) Alabama - 4.8%
It's not very likely that a #15 will win a game this year, but there is a better chance than there was last season. Any of the #2 seeds could lose, but it's extremely unlikely that any of the #1 seeds will lose their first game.
Most Likely Cinderellas
(11) VCU - 21.7%
(12) UC San Diego - 20.8%
(12) Colorado State - 18.3%
(11) San Diego State/North Carolina - 17.3%
(11) Texas/Xavier - 16.7%
(10) New Mexico - 16.4%
(10) Arkansas - 14.0%
(13) Yale - 13.3%
(12) McNeese - 13.1%
(12) Liberty - 12.5%
(10) Utah State - 11.0%
(11) Drake - 10.5%
There was only one double-digit seed that reached the Sweet 16 last year, which was NC State, who appeared right in the middle of my list. There are 12 teams with a good chance of a surprise run this weekend, but don't pick too many of them.
Projected Number of Cinderellas
2.5
This is similar to last season's projection of 2.6, which ended up with only 1 team actually making it that far, but it's likely that we'll see 2 or 3 of them this season.
#1 Seeds in the Final Four
1.5
This is up from last season's projection of 1.2, which resulted in two #1 seeds reaching the final weekend. It's once again likely that there will be one or two again this season.
Odds of a #1 Seed Winning the Tournament
54.6%
This is the highest chance in several seasons, up from 39.8% last season. The #1 seeds are all very strong this year, but there are definitely a couple of tough #2 seeds as well, so don't count them out either.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
(1) Duke - 78.3%
(1) Florida - 78.0%
(1) Auburn - 75.0%
(2) Alabama - 68.8%
(1) Houston - 66.8%
(2) Tennessee - 6..3%
(2) St. John's - 57.4%
(4) Maryland - 55.5%
(2) Michigan State - 54.1%
(3) Texas Tech - 52.8%
(3) Wisconsin - 51.5%
(4) Arizona - 50.3%
(3) Iowa State - 49.1%
(3) Kentucky - 44.9%
(4) Purdue - 41.2%
(5) Clemson - 36.9%
(4) Texas A&M - 35.0%
(6) Illinois - 32.4%
(6) Missouri - 31.8%
(5) Michigan - 30.9%
(5) Oregon - 30.1%
13 of the top 16 teams on this list last season made the Sweet 16, so these are definitely the teams to look for to still be in the field next week.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
(1) Duke - 41.3%
(1) Auburn - 39.7%
(1) Florida - 39.0%
(1) Houston - 30.2%
(2) Alabama - 22.5%
(2) Tennessee - 22.2%
(2) St. John's - 15.4%
(2) Michigan State - 14.7%
(3) Texas Tech - 12.8%
(3) Iowa State - 12.6%
(4) Maryland - 12.4%
The top 8 seeds lead the list this season, along with 3 other teams seeded just below them. 3 of last season's Final Four made my list, including 4-seed Alabama and the two finalists, Purdue and UConn.
Most Likely Champions
(1) Duke - 16.9%
(1) Auburn - 14.6%
(1) Florida - 13.8%
(1) Houston - 9.2%
(2) Alabama - 6.7%
(2) Tennessee - 5.6%
(2) St. John's - 3.3%
(2) Michigan State - 3.2%
(3) Iowa State - 2.64%
(3) Texas Tech - 2.60%
(4) Maryland - 2.5%
Last season's champion and runner-up were both in the top 3 on this list, and each of the top 3 on this list have higher odds than any team had last season of winning it all. For the past decade, the eventual champion has always appeared among the top 7 on this list.
Most Common Nicknames
Bulldogs - 6
Tigers - 4
Bears/Bruins/Grizzlies - 3
Cougars - 3
Aggies - 2
Eagles - 2
Spartans - 2
Rams - 2
Wildcats - 2
Bulldogs lead the way once again, including two (Gonzaga and Georgia) facing each other in the first round.
Teams by State
Texas - 5
Alabama - 4
California - 4
North Carolina - 4
Pennsylvania - 3
Tennessee - 3
Virginia - 3
Arizona - 2
Connecticut - 2
Illinois - 2
Iowa - 2
Kentucky - 2
Michigan - 2
Mississippi - 2
Nebraska - 2
Ohio - 2
South Carolina - 2
Utah - 2
Wisconsin - 2
Arkansas - 1
Colorado - 1
District of Columbia - 1
Florida - 1
Indiana - 1
Kansas - 1
Louisiana - 1
Maryland - 1
Missouri - 1
Montana - 1
New Mexico - 1
New York - 1
Oklahoma - 1
Oregon - 1
Rhode Island - 1
Washington - 1
Once again, Texas leads the way, with Alabama, California, and North Carolina close behind.
My Picks
First Round Winners
(1) Auburn
(9) Creighton
(5) Michigan
(4) Texas A&M
(11) North Carolina/San Diego State
(3) Iowa State
(10) New Mexico
(2) Michigan State
(1) Florida
(9) Oklahoma
(12) Colorado State
(4) Maryland
(6) Missouri
(3) Texas Tech
(7) Kansas
(2) St. John's
(1) Duke
(9) Baylor
(5) Oregon
(4) Arizona
(6) BYU
(3) Wisconsin
(7) Saint Mary's
(2) Alabama
(1) Houston
(8) Gonzaga
(5) Clemson
(4) Purdue
(6) Illinois
(3) Kentucky
(7) UCLA
(2) Tennessee
I am picking 6 first-round upsets, and I was very close to picking UC San Diego as well.
Sweet 16
(1) Auburn
(4) Texas A&M
(3) Iowa State
(2) Michigan State
(1) Florida
(4) Maryland
(3) Texas Tech
(2) St. John's
(1) Duke
(5) Oregon
(6) BYU
(2) Alabama
(1) Houston
(5) Clemson
(3) Kentucky
(2) Tennessee
No Cinderallas in my bracket this year, with BYU the closest thing to one. Colorado State was on my radar, but Maryland is very strong for a 4-seed.
Elite Eight
(1) Auburn
(2) Michigan State
(1) Florida
(2) St. John's
(1) Duke
(2) Alabama
(1) Houston
(2) Tennessee
I have never come close to picking straight chalk at this point, but these 8 teams have been the strongest in the country for most of the season, and I don't think that will change.
Final Four
(1) Auburn
(1) Florida
(2) Alabama
(1) Houston
I nearly picked Tennessee to beat Houston, but having only SEC teams in the Final Four would be a little too crazy.
Championship
(1) Florida
(1) Houston
Florida upsets the #1 overall seed, just as they did earlier this season.
Champions
(1) Florida
Florida has beaten Tennessee once and Alabama twice in recent weeks, and I am predicting that their hot streak leads to a championship.