There have been questions about how to handle players who have chosen to sit out the season restart, but after reviewing the missing players, it doesn't appear that the impact will be that large, as most played relatively minor roles. The exceptions are Bradley Beal of Washington, along with Spencer Dinwiddie and Kyrie Irving of the Nets, but as neither team is a real threat in the postseason, an adjustment doesn't seem necessary.
In order to determine likely playoff seeding, I ran 100 simulations of the 88 games taking place in Orlando over the next 16 days, seeding the teams after finishing each simulation. Out of the 22 teams who were invited, only 1 (Phoenix) failed to finish among the top 9 seeds in their conference in any simulation, so I won't be including them in my playoff odds. Here are the odds of each team finishing in each potential seeding position, based on the number of times they finished in that spot out of the 100 simulations:
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
| MIL | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOR | 0 | 89 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BOS | 0 | 11 | 88 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 79 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| IND | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 38 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 49 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BRK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 39 | 0 |
| ORL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 61 | 0 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
| LAL | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LAC | 0 | 93 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DEN | 0 | 3 | 53 | 28 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UTA | 0 | 3 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| OKC | 0 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 30 | 27 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 31 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
| MEM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 17 |
| POR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| NOP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 46 |
| SAC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 |
| SAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
In each conference, the 1 seed is pretty much decided, though neither is mathematically clinched yet. The 2 seeds are both pretty solid as well. In the East, there could be some movement between 4 and 6, and between 7 and 8, but the real drama will be whether or not Washington can get close enough to earn the 9 seed and a play-in game, which they did in only 30 of the simulations.
In the West, seeds 3 through 7 are all up in the air, and could land in almost any order among those 5 teams. There are also 5 teams in the race for the 8 and 9 seeds, with Memphis holding a clear upper hand, and the Pelicans looking strong to snag the other spot, but the other 3 each have a pretty good shot as well. In all 100 simulations, there was an 8-9 seed play-in series in the West.
Playoffs
After figuring out all of the potential playoff seeding scenarios, I determined each team's odds of beating any other team in a 7-game series, then calculated the odds of any potential matchup taking place in any round. This was made slightly more complicated due to the large number of potential teams that could finish in each seeding spot, but a bit simpler by the fact that there will be no home-court advantage to factor in. (Orlando does not get home court advantage, because the advantage relies on having a crowd, not the distance traveled by the team.)
Odds of Making Playoffs
Ignoring the top 6 teams in the East, and the top 7 in the West, who reached the playoffs safely in every simulation, here are the odds of the remaining teams making the 8-team field in their conference:
East
Nets - 98.4%
Magic - 97.6%
Wizards - 4.0%
West
Grizzlies - 60.9%
Pelicans - 24.5%
Trail Blazers - 7.2%
Kings - 4.5%
Spurs - 3.0%
Odds of Winning First Round
1. Bucks - 98.2%
2. Lakers - 94.5%
3. Raptors - 87.7%
4. Celtics - 76.3%
5. Clippers - 65.7%
6. Mavericks - 57.3%
7. Heat - 53.1%
8. Jazz - 45.6%
9. Thunder - 44.8%
10. Nuggets - 43.3%
11. Rockets - 43.1%
12. 76ers - 38.5%
13. Pacers - 34.0%
14. Nets - 7.0%
15. Magic - 5.2%
16. Grizzlies - 3.1%
17. Pelicans - 2.2%
18. Trail Blazers - 0.29%
19. Kings - 0.18%
20. Spurs - 0.12%
The Wizards' odds are too small to worry about. Milwaukee and the Lakers are pretty solid favorites to get through their first opponents, but that's where the conferences diverge. Toronto and Boston should get through the first round, but the middle of the West should be very interesting.
Odds of Reaching Conference Finals
1. Bucks - 90.0%
2. Lakers - 73.6%
3. Raptors - 50.9%
4. Clippers - 46.2%
5. Celtics - 41.6%
6. Mavericks - 30.4%
7. Rockets - 13.5%
8. Thunder - 12.2%
9. Jazz - 11.8%
10. Nuggets - 10.9%
11. 76ers - 5.33%
12. Heat - 5.29%
13. Pacers - 4.8%
14. Nets - 1.1%
15. Magic - 1.0%
16. Grizzlies - 0.67%
17. Pelicans - 0.66%
The Bucks' odds of reaching the Conference Finals are incredible, and the Lakers are very likely to get there as well. There are a couple of strong contenders in each conference to face the 1-seeds, and 4 others with a decent chance in the West.
Odds of Reaching NBA Finals
1. Bucks - 74.2%
2. Lakers - 51.5%
3. Clippers - 21.8%
4. Mavericks - 13.2%
5. Raptors - 12.6%
6. Celtics - 10.0%
7. Rockets - 3.7%
8. Thunder - 3.4%
9. Jazz - 3.3%
10. Nuggets - 2.7%
11. Heat - 1.5%
12. 76ers - 0.9%
13. Pacers - 0.7%
14. Pelicans - 0.14%
15. Grizzlies - 0.10%
It's still the top two seeds that are looking most likely to reach the Finals, but there are a couple of other contenders in each conference who will be looking to defy the odds, with just a few teams with no realistic chance of getting there.
Odds of Winning NBA Championship
1. Bucks - 53.2%
2. Lakers - 23.1%
3. Clippers - 7.6%
4. Raptors - 5.2%
5. Celtics - 4.1%
6. Mavericks - 3.9%
7. Rockets - 0.7%
8. Thunder - 0.6%
9. Jazz - 0.5%
10. Nuggets - 0.4%
11. Heat - 0.3%
12. 76ers - 0.18%
13. Pacers - 0.12%
The title will most likely be won by a number 1 seed, but there are 4 other teams who have a reasonable chance at a surprise finish. Beyond that, there are another 7 who could pull off a miracle, but not much hope beyond that.
My Predictions
Here are my predictions for how each team will be seeded and advance through this season's playoffs:
Play-in
No play-in in the East
(8) Grizzlies over (9) Pelicans in 2
First Round
(1) Bucks over (8) Nets in 4
(2) Raptors over (7) Magic in 5
(3) Celtics over (6) Pacers in 5
(5) 76ers over (4) Heat in 7
(1) Lakers over (8) Grizzlies in 4
(2) Clippers over (7) Thunder in 6
(6) Mavericks over (3) Nuggets in 6
(4) Jazz over (5) Rockets in 7
Second Round
(1) Bucks over (5) 76ers in 4
(3) Celtics over (2) Raptors in 7
(1) Lakers over (4) Jazz in 5
(2) Clippers over (6) Mavericks in 7
Conference Finals
(1) Bucks over (3) Celtics in 5
(1) Lakers over (2) Clippers in 6
NBA Finals
(1) Bucks over (1) Lakers in 6
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