Two games down in each Conference Final series, and one favorite (San Antonio) managed to keep home court advantage, though it needed overtime to do it, while the other (Miami) lost theirs after a pair of close games against the Pacers ended in a series split. How did the loss of home court advantage affect Miami's chances of repeating as champions? The freshly updated odds are below.
Odds of Making NBA Finals
San Antonio - 83.9% (+26.3)
Miami - 67.5% (-11.3)
Indiana - 32.5% (+18.2)
Memphis - 16.1% (-26.3)
Odds of Winning NBA Championship
San Antonio - 46.2% (+18.7)
Miami - 38.0% (-10.1)
Indiana - 8.2% (+4.5)
Memphis - 7.6% (-10.9)
The big winner this week was the San Antonio Spurs, who controlled game 1 against Memphis from start to finish, then won a hard-fought overtime game to maintain their home court advantage and make them the new championship favorite in yet another odd-numbered year. Miami was the biggest loser this week, needing a buzzer-beater from LeBron James in game 1 to keep them out of what could have been a 2-0 hole heading to Indianapolis, where the Pacers are undefeated in this season's playoffs. Miami must break that streak in order to defend their title.
Saturday, May 25, 2013
Saturday, May 18, 2013
NBA Playoff Odds - 18 May
3 of the 4 Conference Finalists have been determined, and the fourth could join them tonight. So far, Memphis has been the only surprise team, but they had the good luck of not having to face Russell Westbrook in the second round. The Indiana Pacers could finish off their upset tonight at home, becoming the second underdog to reach the Conference Finals this year. Here are each remaining team's odds of advancing and winning the championship:
Odds of Making Conference Finals
Indiana - 72.8% (+26.8)
New York - 27.2% (-26.8)
Odds of Making NBA Finals
Miami - 78.8% (+6.9)
San Antonio - 57.6% (+21.8)
Memphis - 42.4% (+26.6)
Indiana - 14.3% (+3.8)
New York - 6.9% (-9.6)
Odds of Winning NBA Championship
Miami - 48.1% (+8.6)
San Antonio - 27.5% (+10.2)
Memphis - 18.5% (+11.9)
Indiana - 3.7% (+1.4)
New York - 2.2% (-2.7)
This weeks hottest team was the Memphis Grizzlies, who won all three games against the heavily favored Oklahoma City Thunder to take the series in 5 games and advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time in franchise history. Every game in the series was close, with no team winning by more than 6 points, but Memphis pulled it out when it mattered more often than not, and they have a better chance of beating the Spurs than many may think.
Updated Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Second Round
Pacers over Knicks in 6 (Tied 2-2 in regular season)
Conference Finals
Heat over Pacers in 5 (Indiana 2-1)
Spurs over Grizzlies in 7 (Tied 2-2)
NBA Finals
Heat over Spurs in 7 (Miami 2-0)
Odds of Making Conference Finals
Indiana - 72.8% (+26.8)
New York - 27.2% (-26.8)
Odds of Making NBA Finals
Miami - 78.8% (+6.9)
San Antonio - 57.6% (+21.8)
Memphis - 42.4% (+26.6)
Indiana - 14.3% (+3.8)
New York - 6.9% (-9.6)
Odds of Winning NBA Championship
Miami - 48.1% (+8.6)
San Antonio - 27.5% (+10.2)
Memphis - 18.5% (+11.9)
Indiana - 3.7% (+1.4)
New York - 2.2% (-2.7)
This weeks hottest team was the Memphis Grizzlies, who won all three games against the heavily favored Oklahoma City Thunder to take the series in 5 games and advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time in franchise history. Every game in the series was close, with no team winning by more than 6 points, but Memphis pulled it out when it mattered more often than not, and they have a better chance of beating the Spurs than many may think.
Updated Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Second Round
Pacers over Knicks in 6 (Tied 2-2 in regular season)
Conference Finals
Heat over Pacers in 5 (Indiana 2-1)
Spurs over Grizzlies in 7 (Tied 2-2)
NBA Finals
Heat over Spurs in 7 (Miami 2-0)
Saturday, May 11, 2013
NBA Playoff Odds - 11 May
All four favorites in the second round gave up their home court advantage this week, meaning that each of the underdogs would just need to win each of its home games in order to advance to the Conference Finals, but last night two of the favorites, San Antonio and Miami, stole back their hard-earned advantage with 10-point wins on the road. Will Oklahoma City and New York follow suit? Here are each team's odds of advancing through the remainder of the playoffs.
Odds of Making Conference Finals
Miami - 94.8% (+8.1)
San Antonio - 85.3% (+6.6)
Oklahoma City - 64.6% (-12.6)
New York - 54.0% (-6.5)
Indiana - 46.0% (+6.5)
Memphis - 35.4% (+12.6)
Golden State - 14.7% (-6.6)
Chicago - 5.2% (+2.8)
Odds of Making NBA Finals
Miami - 71.9% (+9.0)
Oklahoma City - 46.0% (-10.4)
San Antonio - 35.8% (+5.4)
New York - 16.5% (-4.9)
Memphis - 15.8% (+5.8)
Indiana - 10.5% (-1.1)
Golden State - 2.5% (-0.7)
Chicago - 1.1% (+1.1)
Odds of Winning NBA Championship
Miami - 39.5% (+8.0)
Oklahoma City - 28.8% (-9.3)
San Antonio - 17.3% (+1.2)
Memphis - 6.6% (+2.2)
New York - 4.9% (-1.1)
Indiana - 2.3% (-0.2)
The hottest team of the week was the Miami Heat, appropriately, who, despite losing Game 1 at home to the worst remaining playoff team, did not fold under pressure. They came back with a decisive blowout in Game 2, then took back their home court advantage in Chicago last night. Before the season I predicted that this would be one of the greatest teams in history, projecting them to win 70 games during the regular season, which wasn't as far off as it sounded at the time. With 5 of the remaining teams missing key players, Miami just may live up to the hype.
Odds of Making Conference Finals
Miami - 94.8% (+8.1)
San Antonio - 85.3% (+6.6)
Oklahoma City - 64.6% (-12.6)
New York - 54.0% (-6.5)
Indiana - 46.0% (+6.5)
Memphis - 35.4% (+12.6)
Golden State - 14.7% (-6.6)
Chicago - 5.2% (+2.8)
Odds of Making NBA Finals
Miami - 71.9% (+9.0)
Oklahoma City - 46.0% (-10.4)
San Antonio - 35.8% (+5.4)
New York - 16.5% (-4.9)
Memphis - 15.8% (+5.8)
Indiana - 10.5% (-1.1)
Golden State - 2.5% (-0.7)
Chicago - 1.1% (+1.1)
Odds of Winning NBA Championship
Miami - 39.5% (+8.0)
Oklahoma City - 28.8% (-9.3)
San Antonio - 17.3% (+1.2)
Memphis - 6.6% (+2.2)
New York - 4.9% (-1.1)
Indiana - 2.3% (-0.2)
The hottest team of the week was the Miami Heat, appropriately, who, despite losing Game 1 at home to the worst remaining playoff team, did not fold under pressure. They came back with a decisive blowout in Game 2, then took back their home court advantage in Chicago last night. Before the season I predicted that this would be one of the greatest teams in history, projecting them to win 70 games during the regular season, which wasn't as far off as it sounded at the time. With 5 of the remaining teams missing key players, Miami just may live up to the hype.
Saturday, May 4, 2013
NBA Playoff Odds - 4 May
7 of the 8 first-round playoff series ended this week, with 5 of them ending within 1 game of my predicted result, and two series in the West ending in upsets, which I did not predict. If Brooklyn wins tonight, I will have been 6 for 8 in my predictions, with all of them within 1 game of the original prediction. I have entered the scores of each of this week's games to update the odds of each of the remaining teams continuing their playoff run, and I've also updated my series predictions.
Odds of Winning First Round
Brooklyn - 67.5% (+28.9)
Odds of Making Conference Finals
Miami - 86.7% (-2.1)
San Antonio - 78.7% (+11.2)
Oklahoma City - 77.2% (+7.2)
New York - 60.5% (-3.0)
Indiana - 39.5% (+4.6)
Memphis - 22.8% (+18.4)
Golden State - 21.3% (+7.5)
Brooklyn - 10.9% (+5.0)
Chicago - 2.4% (-2.9)
Odds of Making NBA Finals
Miami - 62.9% (+0.4)
Oklahoma City - 56.4% (+3.1)
San Antonio - 30.4% (+6.7)
New York - 21.4% (-2.0)
Indiana - 11.6% (+1.4)
Memphis - 10.0% (+8.2)
Brooklyn - 3.5% (+1.7)
Golden State - 3.2% (+1.2)
Odds of Winning NBA Championship
Oklahoma City - 38.1% (+2.0)
Miami - 31.5% (-0.7)
San Antonio - 16.1% (+4.6)
New York - 6.0% (-1.1)
Memphis - 4.4% (+4.4)
Indiana - 2.5% (+0.2)
The hottest team this week was the Memphis Grizzlies, who started out down 2-1 at the beginning of the week, then won all three meetings with the Clippers this week to end the series and get revenge for last season's playoff loss. New York was the coldest team, nearly blowing a 3-0 series lead before finally ending Boston's playoff run in game 6, but they still have a great chance of continuing their playoff run.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Second Round
Heat over Nets in 5 (Heat 3-0)
Knicks over Pacers in 7 (Tied 2-2)
Thunder over Grizzlies in 5 (Grizzlies 2-1)
Spurs over Warriors in 5 (Tied 2-2)
Conference Finals
Heat over Knicks in 6 (Knicks 3-1)
Thunder over Spurs in 6 (Tied 2-2)
NBA Finals
Thunder over Heat in 7 (Heat 2-0)
My Eastern Conference predictions have not changed at all, since every series has gone just as I predicted. In the West, I had Denver moving to the Conference Finals by upsetting San Antonio, but they couldn't even take care of Golden State in the first round, so I have now put the Spurs into the Conference Finals.
Odds of Winning First Round
Brooklyn - 67.5% (+28.9)
Odds of Making Conference Finals
Miami - 86.7% (-2.1)
San Antonio - 78.7% (+11.2)
Oklahoma City - 77.2% (+7.2)
New York - 60.5% (-3.0)
Indiana - 39.5% (+4.6)
Memphis - 22.8% (+18.4)
Golden State - 21.3% (+7.5)
Brooklyn - 10.9% (+5.0)
Chicago - 2.4% (-2.9)
Odds of Making NBA Finals
Miami - 62.9% (+0.4)
Oklahoma City - 56.4% (+3.1)
San Antonio - 30.4% (+6.7)
New York - 21.4% (-2.0)
Indiana - 11.6% (+1.4)
Memphis - 10.0% (+8.2)
Brooklyn - 3.5% (+1.7)
Golden State - 3.2% (+1.2)
Odds of Winning NBA Championship
Oklahoma City - 38.1% (+2.0)
Miami - 31.5% (-0.7)
San Antonio - 16.1% (+4.6)
New York - 6.0% (-1.1)
Memphis - 4.4% (+4.4)
Indiana - 2.5% (+0.2)
The hottest team this week was the Memphis Grizzlies, who started out down 2-1 at the beginning of the week, then won all three meetings with the Clippers this week to end the series and get revenge for last season's playoff loss. New York was the coldest team, nearly blowing a 3-0 series lead before finally ending Boston's playoff run in game 6, but they still have a great chance of continuing their playoff run.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Second Round
Heat over Nets in 5 (Heat 3-0)
Knicks over Pacers in 7 (Tied 2-2)
Thunder over Grizzlies in 5 (Grizzlies 2-1)
Spurs over Warriors in 5 (Tied 2-2)
Conference Finals
Heat over Knicks in 6 (Knicks 3-1)
Thunder over Spurs in 6 (Tied 2-2)
NBA Finals
Thunder over Heat in 7 (Heat 2-0)
My Eastern Conference predictions have not changed at all, since every series has gone just as I predicted. In the West, I had Denver moving to the Conference Finals by upsetting San Antonio, but they couldn't even take care of Golden State in the first round, so I have now put the Spurs into the Conference Finals.
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