MLB Rankings - 30 May

You may have noticed that it's been a while since I've updated my MLB rankings. There are several reasons for that. Part of it is due to my new job and new baby at home, but another equally important reason is that there was a major flaw in my formula that needed to be corrected. I found a problem that was messing up both strength of schedule and margin of victory, which are two very important components of my sports formulas. I have spend the past week going back through every game of the season up to this point and recalculating my formula, and I believe those errors have been eradicated. Here are my newest rankings, with team name followed by recent record (since May 11), overall record, rating (average runs away from being an average team), and previous (flawed) ranking.

1. Philadelphia (10-8) (33-20) -0.77 (3)

2. NY Yankees (8-10) (28-23) -0.73 (6)

3. Saint Louis (11-7) (32-22) -0.69 (2)

4. Atlanta (10-7) (30-24) -0.334 (1)

5. Texas (9-7) (28-25) -0.325 (15)

6. Milwaukee (13-4) (29-24) -0.21 (16)

7. Cleveland (8-8) (31-19) -0.18 (5)

8. Colorado (6-12) (25-27) -0.13 (10)

9. Cincinnati (7-11) (27-27) -0.08 (7)

10. Boston (13-4) (30-23) -0.05 (23)

11. Pittsburgh (6-9) (24-27) 0.04 (19)

12. Tampa Bay (8-9) (28-24) 0.05 (18)

13. Toronto (11-6) (27-26) 0.06 (27)

14. Chi Cubs (8-9) (23-28) 0.17 (25)

15. Arizona (14-5) (29-24) 0.19 (13)

16. Florida (9-7) (30-21) 0.27 (4)

17. LA Angels (7-11) (28-27) 0.42 (12)

18. San Francisco (9-8) (28-24) 0.43 (9)

19. Seattle (10-6) (26-26) 0.45 (28)

20. Washington (5-12) (22-30) 0.51 (11)

21. Chi Sox (10-8) (24-31) 0.607 (21)

22. Detroit (7-8) (26-26) 0.611 (17)

23. Oakland (8-9) (27-27) 0.62 (20)

24. NY Mets (8-8) (24-28) 0.75 (8)

25. San Diego (8-9) (22-31) 0.88 (24)

26. Houston (6-11) (19-34) 0.9481 (26)

27. Kansas City (5-12) (23-29) 0.9484 (14)

28. LA Dodgers (7-10) (24-30) 1.02 (22)

29. Baltimore (9-8) (24-27) 1.17 (29)

30. Minnesota (5-12) (17-34) 1.89 (30)

Predictions - 30 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA Finals

Miami over Dallas in 6

(Odds: Miami - 61.4%)

MLB

Twins at Tigers - Tigers by 0.2

Padres at Braves - Braves by 0.4

Phillies at Nationals - Phils by 1.8

Astros at Cubs - No Pick

Yankees at Athletics - A's by 0.6

Angels at Royals - Angels by 2.5

Orioles at Mariners - Orioles by 0.8

Giants at Cardinals - Cards by 4.1

Rangers at Rays - Rangers by 1.1

Indians at Blue Jays - Jays by 0.3

Brewers at Reds - Brewers by 1.3

White Sox at Red Sox - Red Sox by 0.4

Pirates at Mets - Pirates by 0.2

Rockies at Dodgers - Dodgers by 0.8

Marlins at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 0.2

Prediction Results - 22-26 May

NBA Playoffs: 3-2 (.600) 53-22 overall (.707)

NBA Playoff MVP Rankings - 21 May

We have entered the conference finals, and the demise of the Grizzlies has opened up 2 new spots in the current top 5. While picking the top 5 players remaining is actually quite easy, ranking them is a bit more challenging. Each surviving team has won 9 playoff games, and each one has a star player (or in Miami's case, two) who would be the obvious Finals MVP if they lead their team to the title. As of today, here is my statistical ranking of each of the top five remaining players, along with their current playoff averages and their previous ranking in parentheses.

1. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 25.3 pts, 7.3 reb, 4.6 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.8 stl (NR)

Wade did not have a dominant game in the first two games of the Chicago series, but his 7.3 rebounds per game are even more impressive when you consider that they are coming from a 6'4" guard. His free throw shooting has also jumped by 5% in the playoffs, a very sizable jump and extremely important since he is the only player on this list who has won a title before.

2. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 28.5 pts, 7.9 reb, 3.1 ast, 60% 3PP, 92% FTP (NR)

Dirk padded his credentials this week by averaging 37.5 points over the first two games of the conference finals, which included 48 points in game 1 and a record 24 for 24 free throw performance in that same game. He and Wade appear to be destined for a Finals rematch after 5 years of disappointment for each team.

3. LeBron James - MIA - 25.4 pts, 9.2 reb, 5.0 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.5 stl (3)

LeBron didn't play too well in game 1, but he rebounded strongly in game 2, scoring 29 points and grabbing 10 rebounds while playing with flu-like symptoms. During the playoffs he has been scoring less but rebounding more, a combination that doesn't always earn love from voters.

4. Derrick Rose - CHI - 28.2 pts, 4.3 reb, 8.0 ast, 1.4 stl, 82% FTP (1)

Rose is back to shooting less than 40% again to start the conference finals, and Chicago lost it hard-earned home-court advantage as a result. If Rose had just shot at his season averages in game 2, the Bulls would have scored 9 more points, which would have made the game close enough that it could have gone either way in the final moments.

5. Kevin Durant - OKC - 29.4 pts, 7.4 reb, 2.6 ast, 1.1 blk, 84% FTP (2)

Durant's 32 points per game to start the conference finals has kept him atop the scoring leaders, but his free throw percentage has actually dropped in the postseason overall, and his other numbers haven't varied much from what he posted in the regular season. On the plus side, he did lead the Thunder to an upset over Dallas that gave them the home-court advantage while playing alongside 4 bench players for most of the 4th quarter.

Prediction Results - 13-20 May

NBA Playoffs: 4-2 (.667) 50-20 overall (.714)

Predictions - 21 May

Mavericks at Thunder - Thunder by 2

NBA Playoff MVP Rankings - 13 May

I know I'm going to hear some complaints about a certain Maverick not being among my top five playoff performers so far, but there is a good reason for it. In the clinching game, he was not the reason Dallas won. It was partially due to Los Angeles giving up and partially due to Terry and Peja shooting the lights out. Dirk was just along for the ride in this one. It doesn't mean that he's out of the running, just not a current favorite. Here are my current top 5, with previous rankings in parentheses.

1. Derrick Rose - CHI - 28.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 8.2 ast, 1.5 stl (5)

Last week I criticized Rose for his poor shooting percentage throughout the playoffs, and he responded this week by shooting nearly 50% over 4 games, including a 53.8% mark over Chicago's 3 wins. He also averaged 32.5 points this week, and his numbers in every other statistical category have increased over his regular season averages. Also, Chicago is in the conference finals for the first time since MJ retired, as if all the other reasons to rank him here weren't enough.

2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 29.7 pts, 7.6 reb, 2.4 ast, 1.0 stl (3)

Durant's week was highlighted by his 35 points in a triple overtime win over Memphis in game 4 and 19 points in just 31 minutes in their game 5 blowout which allowed them to take control of the series back from the Grizzlies. He has upped his league-leading scoring average by 2 points in the playoffs to remain the leader.

3. LeBron James - MIA - 26.1 pts, 9.4 reb, 4.9 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.3 stl (2)

LeBron only scored 15 points in Miami's lone loss to Boston, but bounced back nicely with 35 and 33 in consecutive games to close out the series. The most impressive part was the ending of the final game, in which he scored the final 10 points of the game, which Miami won by that exact margin.

4. Zach Randolph - MEM - 22.0 pts, 10.7 reb, 2.7 ast, 1.2 stl (NR)

Randolph has been the driving force behind Memphis' playoff success so far, but in the past 4 games he has shot an abysmal 31.9% from the field as the Grizzlies have lost 3 of 4. His best game came in their lone win this week, in which he tallied 21 points and 21 rebounds to control the paint for Memphis.

5. Marc Gasol - MEM - 15.9 pts, 11.8 reb, 2.4 ast, 2.1 blk, 1.1 stl (NR)

Marc has outplayed his older and more famous brother by far in the playoffs, making that Memphis-Los Angeles trade a couple years ago look a little less one-sided than it did at the time. Marc had 26 points and 21 rebounds in the triple overtime loss to Oklahoma City, a game in which he made two of the most crucial plays, a block near the end of regulation, and a tip-in near the end of the second overtime, both of which allowed the Grizzlies to hang around.

NBA Player of the Day

Carlos Boozer - CHI - 23 pts, 10 reb, 5 ast, 10-16 FG, 3-3 FT

While his MVP teammate may be #1 in the playoff MVP rankings, the clinching game of the Atlanta series belonged to Boozer, who finally broke out of his playoff slump and led Chicago to the conference finals with the with his second straight double-double.

Predictions - 13 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Thunder at Grizzlies - Grizz by 1

MLB

Giants at Cubs - Giants by 0.9

Mariners at Indians - Indians by 1.4

Royals at Tigers - Royals by 0.3

Red Sox at Yankees - Yankees by 1.4

Marlins at Nationals - Marlins by 0.2

Orioles at Rays - Rays by 2.3

Cardinals at Reds - Cards by 0.8

Phillies at Braves - Braves by 0.1

Angels at Rangers - Angels by 0.3

Mets at Astros - Mets by 1.7

Blue Jays at Twins - Jays by 1.9

Pirates at Brewers - Brewers by 0.3

Padres at Rockies - Rockies by 1.1

White Sox at Athletics - A's by 0.0

Diamondbacks at Dodgers - D-Backs by 0.1

Prediction Results - 12 May

NBA Playoffs: 1-0 (1.000) 46-18 overall (.719)

MLB: 5-2 (.714) 209-195 overall (.517)

Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 240-169 overall (.587)

Predictions - 12 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Bulls at Hawks - Bulls by 4

MLB

Rays at Indians - Indians by 0.6

Cardinals at Cubs - Cards by 1.7

Mets at Rockies - Mets by 0.3

Diamondbacks at Giants - Giants by 0.3

Mariners at Orioles - Orioles by 0.3

Royals at Yankees - Yankees by 0.2

Dodgers at Pirates - Pirates by 0.9

Nationals at Braves - Braves by 1.1

NBA Player of the Day

Dwyane Wade - MIA - 34 pts, 10 reb, 5 ast, 4 stl, 13-19 FG, 8-15 FT

LeBron scored the final 10 points for Miami last night, which made up the final scoring differential, but Wade led the Heat in every major statistical category and put them in position to win the game and the series. He shot nearly 70% for the game, and the only black mark on his performance was his poor shooting from the free throw line, but in this case it didn't stop them from finishing off the Celtics.

Prediction Results - 10/11 May

NBA Playoffs: 3-0 (1.000) 45-18 overall (.714)

MLB: 7-8 (.467) 204-193 overall (.514)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 239-169 overall (.586)

MLB Rankings - 11 May

Rank. Team (Wk) (Overall) Off/Def (Prev)

1. Atlanta (5-2) (20-17) 1/1 (5)

2. Saint Louis (4-2) (21-15) 2/2 (3)

3. Philadelphia (4-3) (23-12) 3/3 (4)

4. Florida (3-4) (21-14) 6/4 (6)

5. Cleveland (3-3) (23-11) 5/5 (1)

6. NY Yankees (3-3) (20-13) 4/8 (2)

7. Cincinnati (6-1) (20-16) 10/6 (14)

8. NY Mets (4-3) (16-20) 7/11 (15)

9. San Francisco (5-1) (19-16) 9/10 (21)

10. Colorado (2-5) (19-15) 13/7 (17)

11. Washington (3-3) (17-18) 8/12 (12)

12. LA Angels (5-2) (21-16) 12/15 (9)

13. Arizona (2-4) (15-19) 11/18 (19)

14. Kansas City (2-4) (18-17) 15/14 (11)

15. Texas (3-4) (19-18) 14/17 (7)

16. Milwaukee (3-5) (16-20) 17/13 (16)

17. Detroit (6-1) (19-18) 20/9 (25)

18. Tampa Bay (4-2) (20-15) 18/16 (18)

19. Pittsburgh (4-2) (18-18) 16/20 (23)

20. Oakland (4-3) (19-18) 19/19 (22)

21. Chi Sox (3-3) (14-23) 23/21 (29)

22. LA Dodgers (2-4) (17-20) 22/22 (27)

23. Boston (3-4) (17-19) 24/24 (8)

24. San Diego (2-4) (14-22) 26/23 (26)

25. Chi Cubs (2-3) (15-19) 25/25 (28)

26. Houston (1-6) (13-23) 21/28 (20)

27. Toronto (3-4) (16-20) 28/26 (10)

28. Seattle (2-4) (16-20) 27/27 (13)

29. Baltimore (2-4) (15-19) 29/29 (24)

30. Minnesota (2-4) (12-22) 30/30 (30)

Making their Mommas Proud

Atlanta started the week with 4 straight wins, including two shutouts, then lost a game to Philadelphia, the team with the best record in the National League. They ended up winning 2 of 3 over the Phillies and are now the best team in the league.

The Chicago White Sox made a huge improvement this week, reeling off three straight wins for the first time this season, and winning two of those games by shutout, and all three on the road. Their no-hit loss to last-place Minnesota a week ago was pretty embarrassing, but they rebounded nicely for a bad team.

The San Francisco Giants have won 4 straight games and 6 of their past 7, including a very impressive sweep of their weekend series over the division-leading Colorado Rockies. Their pitching staff gave up only 10 runs over 6 games this week, for a staff ERA of 1.67.

Only Their Mothers Could Love Them

Toronto was looking decent until this week, when Detroit outscored them 24-7 over the course of three games spanning Saturday to Monday. Luckily for them, they will be spending this weekend in Minnesota, the home of the worst team in the Major Leagues.

Seattle is now on a 3 game losing streak to teams that were ranked in last week's bottom 7. Prior to that, they had won 8 of 10, but those three inexcusable losses dropped them down into the territory of those teams.

Boston may have won 3 games this week, but all three of those wins came against Minnesota, who would lose to some Little League teams at this point. Before those three wins, they lost 11-0 to the Angels and 9-2 against those horrible Twins.

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 33 pts, 2 reb, 9 ast, 11-24 FG, 1-5 3P, 10-13 FT

With Joakim Noah contributing almost nothing to the Bulls' cause, Derrick Rose raised the level of his game again to give Chicago a 3-2 lead and the inside edge for a spot in the Conference Finals. The MVP even shot well for the first time in the series, which would be a big help to a Chicago team that has struggled more than expected in the playoffs.

NBA Playoff Odds - 10 May

There are now only 7 teams left in the NBA playoffs, and many of them have made some nice jumps this week, especially the Dallas Mavericks, who eliminated the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers in just 4 games. The Bulls are struggling to finish off Atlanta, but they should be able to advance to the next round anyway. Here are the updated odds of each team advancing, with change from last week in parentheses.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Dallas - 100.0% (+16.5)

2. Miami - 94.6% (+5.0)

3. Chicago - 87.6% (+0.3)

4. Oklahoma City - 58.6% (+8.4)

5. Memphis - 41.4% (-8.4)

6. Atlanta - 12.4% (-0.3)

7. Boston - 5.4% (-5.0)

Oklahoma City and Miami both increased their odds by winning a game on the road, Oklahoma City to regain home court advantage, and Miami to push Boston to the brink. Chicago's odds didn't change much because they lost a game in Atlanta, when they should have won both.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Dallas - 66.5% (+13.7)

2. Miami - 54.7% (+1.3)

3. Chicago - 42.6% (+0.8)

4. Oklahoma City - 20.9% (+1.4)

5. Memphis - 12.7% (-4.4)

6. Boston - 2.2% (-2.0)

7. Atlanta - 0.6% (0.0)

The top 4 teams all saw increased odds of making the Finals, especially Dallas after they demolished Los Angeles. Oklahoma City also moved up a little with that news, but Dallas took most of the 10.6% that was given up by the Lakers from last week. Miami and Chicago still looks to be a very entertaining Conference Final.

Odds of Winning the Championship

1. Miami - 34.7% (-1.7)

2. Dallas - 29.1% (+8.3)

3. Chicago - 24.8% (-0.9)

4. Oklahoma City - 6.8% (+0.6)

5. Memphis - 3.5% (-1.2)

6. Boston - 0.9% (-1.0)

7. Atlanta - 0.0% (-0.1)

Only Oklahoma City and Dallas increased their odds of winning the title this week, but no one saw a big change other than the Mavericks, who absorbed LA's 4.3% and moved up a bit with their dominating performance in that series. The Finals may not be as big a blowout for the East as it once looked, but Miami and Chicago are still dominating the odds, with Dallas giving the West a real contender.

NBA Player of the Day

Russell Westbrook - OKC - 40 pts, 5 reb, 5 ast, 3 stl, 2 blk, 15-33 FG, 10-11 FT

Westbrook had a monster game, helped by the fact that it went to triple overtime, but hit more big shots in the game than any other player. He was even able to outscore Kevin Durant, the leading scorer in the regular season and playoffs, while contributing a little bit in every other statistical category and helping the Thunder steal back home court advantage from Memphis.

Predictions - 10 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Hawks at Bulls - Bulls by 10

MLB

Mariners at Orioles - Mariners by 0.2

Rays at Indians - Indians by 0.9

Royals at Yankees - Yankees by 0.5

Dodgers at Pirates - Pirates by 1.6

Red Sox at Blue Jays - Sox by 0.4

Nationals at Braves - Braves by 1.6

Phillies at Marlins - Phillies by 0.6

Athletics at Rangers - A's by 0.3

Cardinals at Cubs - Cards by 1.1

Reds at Astros - Reds by 2.2

Tigers at Twins - Tigers by 2.5

Padres at Brewers - Brewers by 1.1

Mets at Rockies - Rockies by 0.1

White Sox at Angels - Angels by 2.2

Diamondbacks at Giants - D-Backs by 0.0

Prediction Results - 9 May

NBA Playoffs: 0-2 (.000) 42-18 overall (.700)

MLB: 6-3 (.667) 197-185 overall (.516)

Upsets: 0-2 (.000) 239-168 overall (.587)

Predictions - 9 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Heat at Celtics - Celtics by 1

Thunder at Grizzlies - Grizz by 3

MLB

Dodgers at Pirates - Pirates by 0.6

Tigers at Blue Jays - Tigers by 1.1

Twins at Red Sox - Sox by 2.1

Phillies at Marlins - Phillies by 0.3

Athletics at Rangers - Rangers by 0.3

Reds at Astros - Reds by 0.6

Padres at Brewers - Padres by 0.7

Mets at Rockies - Rockies by 0.1

White Sox at Angels - Angels by 1.5

NBA Player of the Day

Josh Smith - ATL - 23 pts, 16 reb, 8 ast, 2 blk, 8-22 FG, 7-9 FT

As impressive as Jason Terry's 9 for 10 performance on 3-pointers was (and it was very impressive), the best player on the court yesterday was Josh Smith of Atlanta, who did a little bit of everything, from scoring inside to grabbing tons of boards to passing to open teammates. He is the biggest reason the Hawks were able to even their series with top-seeded Chicago.

Prediction Results - 8 May

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 42-16 overall (.724)

MLB: 8-7 (.533) 191-182 overall (.512)

Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 239-166 overall (.590)

Predictions - 8 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Lakers at Mavericks - Mavs by 3

Bulls at Hawks - Bulls by 5

MLB

Tigers at Blue Jays - Tigers by 0.5

Dodgers at Mets - Mets by 1.3

Nationals at Marlins - Nats by 0.1

Rays at Orioles - Rays by 1.8

Twins at Red Sox - Sox by 2.2

Astros at Pirates - Pirates by 0.1

Yankees at Rangers - Yankees by 0.5

Athletics at Royals - Royals by 0.7

Brewers at Cardinals - Cards by 2.1

Reds at Cubs - Reds by 1.2

Indians at Angels - Indians by 0.3

Diamondbacks at Padres - D-Backs by 0.5

Rockies at Giants - Rockies by 0.2

White Sox at Mariners - Mariners by 0.3

Braves at Phillies - Braves by 0.2

NBA Player of the Day

Kevin Garnett - BOS - 28 pts, 18 reb, 2 stl, 13-20 FG, 2-2 FT

For one day, KG looked like the former MVP that he is, totaling more points and rebounds in game 3 than he tallied in games 1 and 2 combined. With a dislocated elbow slowing Rajon Rondo, Garnett took over and gave the Celtics their first win of the series and ensured that they would get another chance to win a game in Miami.

Prediction Results - 7 May

NBA Playoffs: 2-0 (1.000) 41-15 overall (.732)

MLB: 6-9 (.400) 183-175 overall (.511)

Upsets: 3-2 (.600) 237-165 overall (.590)

Predictions - 7 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Thunder at Grizzlies - Grizz by 2

Heat at Celtics - Celtics by 1

MLB

Rays at Orioles - Rays by 2.4

Twins at Red Sox - Sox by 1.3

Reds at Cubs - Reds by 1.4

Tigers at Blue Jays - Jays by 0.6

Brewers at Cardinals - Cards by 2.1

Braves at Phillies - Braves by 0.1

Astros at Pirates - Pirates by 0.1

Athletics at Royals - Royals by 1.0

Dodgers at Mets - Mets by 2.4

Nationals at Marlins - Marlins by 0.8

Yankees at Rangers - Yankees by 0.4

Diamondbacks at Padres - Padres by 0.1

Indians at Angels - Indians by 0.3

Rockies at Giants - Rockies by 0.9

White Sox at Mariners - Mariners by 0.8

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 44 pts, 5 reb, 7 ast, 16-27 FG, 4-7 3P, 8-9 FT

Rose validated his MVP award last night by destroying the Atlanta Hawks and taking complete control of their second-round series. He hadn't hit more than 25 points in a game since game 2 of the first round, and the 44 points he scored became his new career high. Even Magic Johnson said that Rose reminded him of Michael Jordan with his performance.

Prediction Results - 6 May

NBA Playoffs: 2-0 (1.000) 39-15 overall (.722)

MLB: 9-6 (.600) 177-166 overall (.516)

Upsets: 5-0 (1.000) 234-163 overall (.589)

NBA Playoff MVP Rankings - 6 May

Miami and Dallas have raced out to 2-0 leads in their respective series, with Dallas making it even more impressive by achieving the feat on the road against the defending champs, while Miami did it at home against the defending conference champions. What does this mean for each team's star's chance of winning the Finals MVP? Just read on. Previous ranking is in parentheses.

1. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 25.3 pts, 7.3 reb, 4.9 ast, 1.7 blk, 1.6 stl (1)

Wade held on to the top spot by outscoring his slightly more famous teammate, LeBron James, in the first two games of the series against Boston. Miami has made themselves the title favorite with dominating performances over last year's Eastern Conference champions, and Wade has been their best player over the past two weeks.

2. LeBron James - MIA - 25.4 pts, 9.4 reb, 5.4 ast, 1.0 blk, 1.0 stl (3)

James was certainly no slouch this week either, especially considering the 35 points he put up in game 2 against the Celtics. It makes me wonder if the NBA would consider awarding co-Finals MVP's to the two Heat superstars, much like when Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling dominated the 2001 World Series for Arizona, but made it difficult to decide which was better.

3. Kevin Durant - OKC - 31.6 pts, 6.3 reb, 3.1 ast, 1.0 blk (2)

Durant dropped a spot this week because the Thunder lost game 1 and gave up home court advantage to the Grizzlies in the process. He made sure they didn't lose game two and end up in a 2-0 hole like the Lakers, which is what kept him in the hunt at #3.

4. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 27.0 pts, 8.5 reb, 2.9 ast (5)

Dirk was on fire this week, shooting over 52% from the field, 60% from three, and 90% from the free throw line while leading Dallas in scoring and upsetting the Lakers twice in Los Angeles in three days. Barring the kind of collapse he had in 2006 and 2007, he is very much in the running to take this title.

5. Derrick Rose - CHI - 26.7 pts, 4.9 reb, 7.3 ast, 1.3 blk, 2.1 stl (4)

Rose won the regular season MVP this week, but the playoffs are still another matter. His playoff shooting percentage is still 7 points lower than his regular season percentage, and the Bulls have lost twice in the playoffs to teams they should have swept. He's obviously still in the running, but Chicago and Rose aren't dominating like they should.

Predictions - 6 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Bulls at Hawks - Bulls by 4

Lakers at Mavericks - Mavs by 3

MLB

Reds at Cubs - Reds by 1.7

Rays at Orioles - Rays by 0.5

Braves at Phillies - Phillies by 0.5

Astros at Pirates - Astros by 0.4

Tigers at Blue Jays - Jays by 0.3

Twins at Red Sox - Sox by 2.2

Dodgers at Mets - Mets by 1.3

Nationals at Marlins - Marlins by 1.0

Yankees at Rangers - Yankees by 0.1

Athletics at Royals - Royals by 1.6

Brewers at Cardinals - Cards by 1.3

Diamondbacks at Padres - D-Backs by 0.4

Indians at Angels - Indians by 1.0

White Sox at Mariners - Mariners by 1.4

Rockies at Giants - Giants by 0.3

Prediction Results - 5 May

MLB: 4-8 (.333) 168-160 overall (.512)

Upsets: 0-3 (.000) 229-163 overall (.584)

NBA Playoff Odds - 5 May

With today being a day of rest and a travel day for NBA teams, I've decided to do another update to my playoff odds, taking into account performance and results of the first two games of the second round for each team. Not only do I have a new title favorite this time, I also have a brand new runner-up for them to beat. Here are the odds of each team advancing, with change from pre-series odds in parentheses.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Miami - 89.6% (+17.9)

2. Chicago - 87.3% (-8.8)

3. Dallas - 83.5% (+44.1)

4. Oklahoma City - 50.2% (-12.2)

5. Memphis - 49.8% (+12.2)

6. LA Lakers - 16.5% (-44.1)

7. Atlanta - 12.7% (+8.8)

8. Boston - 10.4% (-17.9)

Dallas' shutdown of Kobe and the Lakers on the road has transformed them from an average team in the West to a clear favorite. Memphis has closed the gap considerably with Oklahoma City, and with home court advantage currently favoring the Grizzlies, it should be a great series. Atlanta pulled off a nice surprise in game 1, but most likely won't be able to do it 3 more times. Boston is in even worse shape, even with 3 home games possibly remaining.

Odds of Making the NBA Finals

1. Miami - 53.4% (+16.2)

2. Dallas - 52.8% (+29.5)

3. Chicago - 41.8% (-11.3)

4. Oklahoma City - 19.5% (-5.3)

5. Memphis - 17.1% (+5.5)

6. LA Lakers - 10.6% (-29.7)

7. Boston - 4.2% (-5.2)

8. Atlanta - 0.6% (+0.4)

It appears that we may be headed for a rematch of the 2006 Finals, when Dwyane Wade and the Heat came back from a 2-0 deficit to beat Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks in 6 games. Those two stars haven't changed, but the majority of the other players for both teams have changed. Chicago is still lurking as a possible Miami-beater, but they are currently the second option in the East. Dallas is in complete control out West right now.

Odds of Winning the NBA Championship

1. Miami - 36.4% (+11.5)

2. Chicago - 25.7% (-8.3)

3. Dallas - 20.8% (+12.4)

4. Oklahoma City - 6.2% (-2.0)

5. Memphis - 4.7% (+1.8)

6. LA Lakers - 4.3% (-13.2)

7. Boston - 1.9% (-2.3)

8. Atlanta - 0.1% (+0.1)

Miami has taken over the mantle of title favorite from the Bulls this week by controlling every facet of their series against Boston, while Chicago again showed a little weakness by losing to Atlanta at home. The Lakers are now the least likely Western team to win the title, mostly because of the heavy odds against them even beating Dallas at this point. If they somehow beat Dallas, look for them to rise back to the top of the West, although it's pretty clear that Miami and Chicago will remain the favorites for as long as they're around.

NBA Player of the Day

Joakim Noah - CHI - 19 pts, 14 reb, 2 ast, 3 stl, 6-8 FG, 7-8 FT

Rose may have been given the MVP trophy before the game, but the most valuable player in this game was Noah, who had his best winning game in the playoffs so far. His performance helped ensure that they wouldn't have to go down 2-0 at home, and kept them in the race for the title.

Predictions - 5 May

Upset picks are in italics.

MLB

Astros at Reds - Reds by 0.4

Yankees at Tigers - Yankees by 1.1

Blue Jays at Rays - Jays by 1.8

Giants at Mets - Giants by 1.4

Angels at Red Sox - Sox by 0.2

Marlins at Cardinals - Marlins by 0.8

Orioles at Royals - Royals by 0.5

Indians at Athletics - Indians by 2.6

Nationals at Phillies - Phillies by 0.5

Brewers at Braves - Brewers by 0.2

Rockies at Diamondbacks - Rockies by 0.2

Rangers at Mariners - Rangers by 2.3

Prediction Results - 4 May

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 37-15 overall (.712)

MLB: 8-8 (.500) 164-152 overall (.519)

Upsets: 3-6 (.333) 229-160 overall (.589)

MLB Rankings - 4 May

Last week, the New York Yankees took the top spot by being ranked #1 in both offense and defense. It looked like they would probably hold their spot for a while, but another team improved enough in both aspects this week that they are now the best on both sides of the ball. What did it take to pass the Yankees? Only the first perfect week we've seen from a baseball team all season. So the team with the best overall record, longest winning streak, best offense, best defense, and the top overall spot in my rankings is...

Rank. Team (Wk) (Overall) Off/Def (Prev)

1. Cleveland (6-0) (20-8) 1/1 (3)

2. NY Yankees (5-2) (17-10) 2/6 (1)

3. Saint Louis (5-2) (17-13) 3/3 (8)

4. Philadelphia (4-1) (19-9) 6/2 (14)

5. Atlanta (3-2) (15-15) 4/4 (10)

6. Florida (3-3) (18-10) 7/5 (12)

7. Texas (2-5) (16-14) 5/8 (2)

8. Boston (4-3) (14-15) 14/7 (4)

9. LA Angels (2-4) (16-14) 11/11 (5)

10. Toronto (2-4) (13-16) 9/15 (6)

11. Kansas City (4-2) (16-13) 12/12 (7)

12. Washington (4-3) (14-15) 13/10 (21)

13. Seattle (5-1) (14-16) 10/18 (27)

14. Cincinnati (2-3) (14-15) 15/13 (11)

15. NY Mets (2-4) (12-17) 8/22 (20)

16. Milwaukee (1-4) (13-15) 16/14 (16)

17. Colorado (1-3) (17-10) 21/9 (13)

18. Tampa Bay (5-2) (16-13) 22/16 (15)

19. Arizona (3-3) (13-15) 18/20 (25)

20. Houston (3-3) (12-17) 17/24 (29)

21. San Francisco (3-4) (14-15) 19/23 (24)

22. Oakland (4-2) (15-15) 25/17 (17)

23. Pittsburgh (4-3) (14-16) 20/26 (26)

24. Baltimore (4-3) (13-15) 23/25 (19)

25. Detroit (1-6) (13-17) 24/21 (9)

26. San Diego (3-3) (12-18) 27/19 (28)

27. LA Dodgers (3-3) (15-16) 26/27 (23)

28. Chi Cubs (3-3) (13-16) 28/28 (30)

29. Chi Sox (1-6) (11-20) 29/29 (18)

30. Minnesota (1-6) (10-18) 30/30 (22)

April Showers

Minnesota took over the worst spot in both offense and defense this week, thank to a week where they were outscored 54-15 in 7 games. Their lone win came in Chicago last night, against the equally anemic White Sox, and it took a no-hitter from Francisco Liriano to win the game, which ended with a final score of 1-0. I don't think the pitching was that great, the offenses were just that bad.

Speaking of that embarrassing no-hitter last night, the Chicago White Sox were nearly as bad as Minnesota last week, also winning only once, over the Baltimore Orioles, which isn't as impressive as it would have been 3 weeks ago. Losing 1-0 to the worst team in the Major Leagues who were starting their worst pitcher is a sure sign that you are one of the worst teams around.

Rounding out the losers this week are the Texas Rangers, a team that was #1 just 3 weeks ago. While they haven't fallen nearly as far as the other losers (they're still a top 10 team), they've lost consecutive series to Toronto and Oakland, both of which are fairly average teams. They need to win the next two in Seattle to avoid losing their third series in a row.

May Flowers

The Houston Astros are still not a very good team, but they have won three straight games, including two blowouts to start the month of May, and they no longer have the worst record in the National League (that would be San Diego). We'll see if they can make it four in a row this afternoon against the Reds (I'm betting they can).

Philadelphia's only loss of the week came in 14 innings against the New York Mets in the game during which they announced the death of Osama Bin Laden. If the team from the city which houses the Liberty Bell had to lose to a team from any other city on that historic night, at least it was a team from the city that was attacked on that dreadful day 10 years ago.

San Diego may have the worst record in the National League today, but that doesn't mean they're not playing well. They've won three of their last 4, despite being underdogs in all of them, and they have a series coming up with Arizona this week. They may not be in last for long.

NBA Player of the Day

LeBron James - MIA - 35 pts, 7 reb, 2 ast, 14-25 FG, 2-4 3P, 5-8 FT

The Miami Heat have two stars that can take over a game, which has come in very handy during the playoffs. Either James or Wade has been named Player of the Day nearly every time the Heat have played lately, and although their combined success may hurt them in the quest for individual awards, it may end up helping them earn the ultimate team award, an NBA title.

Predictions - 4 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Hawks at Bulls - Bulls by 10

Mavericks at Lakers - Lakers by 4

MLB

Astros at Reds - Astros by 0.7

Twins at White Sox - White Sox by 1.1

Cubs at Dodgers - Cubs by 1.3

Brewers at Braves - Braves by 1.7

Pirates at Padres - Pirates by 1.1

Blue Jays at Rays - Jays by 1.9

Yankees at Tigers - Yankees by 1.0

Nationals at Phillies - Phillies by 2.7

Angels at Red Sox - Red Sox by 0.8

Giants at Mets - Mets by 0.9

Brewers at Braves - Braves by 1.0

Orioles at Royals - Orioles by 1.1

Marlins at Cardinals - Marlins by 0.3

Rockies at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 1.0

Indians at Athletics - Indians by 1.9

Rangers at Mariners - Mariners by 0.4

Prediction Results - 3 May

NBA Playoffs: 2-0 (1.000) 36-14 overall (.720)

MLB: 7-7 (.500) 156-144 overall (.520)

Upsets: 3-1 (.750) 226-154 overall (.595)

Predictions - 3 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Celtics at Heat - Heat by 6

Grizzlies at Thunder - Thunder by 3

MLB

Blue Jays at Rays - Jays by 0.1

Yankees at Tigers - Yankees by 3.8

Nationals at Phillies - Phillies by 0.6

Brewers at Braves - Braves by 1.5

Astros at Reds - Reds by 2.3

Giants at Mets - Giants by 0.5

Angels at Red Sox - Sox by 0.2

Twins at White Sox - Sox by 1.0

Orioles at Royals - Royals by 1.5

Marlins at Cardinals - Cards by 2.5

Rockies at Diamondbacks - Rockies by 2.4

Indians at Athletics - Indians by 1.6

Pirates at Padres - Pirates by 3.0

Rangers at Mariners - Mariners by 0.6

Cubs at Dodgers - Dodgers by 3.0

NBA Player of the Day

Joe Johnson - ATL - 34 pts, 4 reb, 3 ast, 3 stl, 12-18 FG, 5-5 3P, 5-5 FT

We have another repeat winner, after Johnson won this award for his performance in the final game of the series against Orlando, but this time, Johnson won based on his shooting and scoring, while last time his rebounding played a large part in his victory. Johnson was perfect from behind the 3-point line last night, hitting big 3-pointers every time Chicago tried to make the game close, and he was also perfect from the free throw line. He was the best player in a game that involved the likely MVP, which is really saying something.

Prediction Results - 2 May

NBA Playoffs: 0-2 (.000) 34-14 overall (.708)

MLB: 6-3 (.667) 149-137 overall (.521)

Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 223-153 overall (.593)

Paul Pierce's ejection

There has been some controversy over the ending of last night's Heat-Celtics game, which had a major turning point with about 7 minutes left when Paul Pierce was ejected after receiving his second technical foul. During the game, the play-by-play announcers were very critical of referee Ed Malloy's decision to toss Pierce, saying that the second technical was unwarranted. After the game, coach Doc Rivers and several Celtics voiced a similar opinion, with Rivers going as far as to say that the Heat players involved should have been given flagrant fouls.

The first incident happened with 7:59 left in the game. Paul Pierce had the ball and pump-faked James Jones to get him off his feet in order to draw a foul, which is exactly what happened. When Jones was coming down and Pierce was going up for his shot, Jones ensured that Pierce wouldn't score by grabbing his arms, nearly hugging him. Coach Rivers claimed that this was a "clear flagrant" and that he "went right for the head and grabbed." If you watch the replay, which has been shown over and over on SportsCenter, it is clear that Jones didn't make contact with Pierce's head, and it also appears that he didn't even try to. He went right for the arms to prevent a shot, just as he stated afterward. Pierce didn't like the contact from Jones, which is quite ironic, considering that his intent with the pump fake was to draw contact, so he got right in Jones' face and nearly started a fight, which was quickly broken up by referees, who hit both players with technical fouls. After watching this play multiple times, it's obvious the officials made the correct call.

The next incident occurred less than a minute later, when Pierce was setting a screen to help Ray Allen get open behind the 3-point line. Dwyane Wade, who was guarding Allen at the time, plowed into Pierce and was called for a personal foul. Once again, Pierce didn't like the contact and attempted to get in Wade's face, but was separated from the situation quickly. Once again, Coach Rivers though a flagrant should have been issued. If Wade had intentionally hit Pierce in the head or the groin, I could see a flagrant foul being called on the play, but there was no such attempt, just a hit that was called a foul as it should have. While the second incident wasn't as close to becoming a fight as the first, the technical fouls assessed to both players in this case were definitely warranted. The previous incident had happened less than one minute earlier, and the referees needed to keep the game under control, and allowing these types of situations to keep happening by not doling out punishment would have led to more problems.

In both cases, Paul Pierce was in a situation where he was trying to draw contact and a foul, and in both cases the call went against the opposing player. It's obvious that Pierce let his temper get out of control last night, and an ejection was the only way to take care of it. If he didn't want the opposing players to make contact with him, he should have made different plays in both instances. As it stands, Pierce's temper cost him 7 minutes and may have cost his team the game.

NBA Player of the Day

Zach Randolph - MEM - 34 pts, 10 reb, 2 ast, 3 stl, 12-22 FG, 1-1 3P, 9-9 FT

After Randolph's great game to close out the series against San Antonio, he came back two night later with an even better game to upset Oklahoma City in game 1. He scored 3 more points, had one fewer rebound, did not miss a free throw, and shot the exact same percentage as in the previous game. We may be looking at the first 8-seed ever to play in the Western Conference Finals.

Predictions - 2 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Hawks at Bulls - Bulls by 11

Mavericks at Lakers - Lakers by 4

MLB

Rangers at Athletics - Rangers by 3.2

Yankees at Tigers - Yankees by 4.0

Giants at Nationals - Nats by 0.5

Brewers at Braves - Braves by 1.1

Astros at Reds - Reds by 2.3

Angels at Red Sox - Angels by 2.9

Orioles at White Sox - Sox by 0.0

Marlins at Cardinals - Cards by 1.1

Pirates at Padres - Pirates by 0.0

Cubs at Dodgers - Dodgers by 2.1

Prediction Results - 1 May

NBA Playoffs: 1-1 (.500) 34-12 overall (.739)

MLB: 8-7 (.533) 143-134 overall (.516)

Upsets: 4-2 (.667) 222-152 overall (.594)

Predictions - 1 May

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Grizzlies at Thunder - Thunder by 4

Celtics at Heat - Heat by 5

MLB

Tigers at Indians - Indians by 5.6

Blue Jays at Yankees - Jays by 1.0

Cardinals at Braves - Cards by 1.3

Giants at Nationals - Giants by 1.9

Mariners at Red Sox - Sox by 0.3

Angels at Rays - Angels by 1.6

Brewers at Astros - Brewers by 0.6

Orioles at White Sox - Orioles by 0.4

Twins at Royals - Royals by 2.3

Pirates at Rockies - Pirates by 1.0

Rangers at Athletics - Rangers by 2.6

Cubs at Diamondbacks - D-Backs by 1.1

Marlins at Reds - Reds by 0.9

Padres at Dodgers - Dodgers by 0.3

Mets at Phillies - Mets by 0.7

Prediction Results - 30 Apr

MLB: 5-10 (.333) 135-127 overall (.515)

Upsets: 1-5 (.167) 218-150 overall (.592)