College Football Predictions - 30 Aug to 3 Sep

The opening weekend of college football season extends almost an entire week, with games starting Thursday and not finishing up until Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech wrap up their battle on Monday night. I have picked the winner of every game involving an FBS school this week, along with their projected margin of victory, if they are playing another FBS school. Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

(9) South Carolina at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 9
UCF at Akron - Knights by 48
Eastern Michigan at Ball State - Cardinals by 6
Southeastern Missouri at Central Michigan - Chippewas
Towson at Kent State - Golden Flashes
Northern Colorado at Utah - Utes
Texas-San Antonio at South Alabama - Jaguars by 6
Massachusetts at Connecticut - Huskies by 23
UCLA at Rice - Owls by 15
McNeese State at Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders
Sacramento State at New Mexico State - Aggies
Southern Utah at Utah State - Aggies
Eastern Washington at Idaho - Vandals
Washington State at BYU - WSU Cougars by 6
Northern Arizona at Arizona State - Sun Devils
Minnesota at UNLV - Golden Gophers by 17

Friday

(24) Boise State at (13) Michigan State - Broncos by 7
Villanova at Temple - Owls
Tennessee at North Carolina State - Wolfpack by 6
Wagner at Florida Atlantic - Owls
San Jose State at (21) Stanford - Cardinal by 38

Saturday

Notre Dame vs. Navy - Irish by 30
Troy at UAB - Trojans by 3
Tulsa at Iowa State - Cyclones by 19
Appalachian State at East Carolina - Pirates
Northwestern at Syracuse - Orange by 7
Miami-Ohio at (18) Ohio State - Buckeyes by 1
Ohio at Penn State - Nittany Lions by 7
Marshall at (11) West Virginia - Mountaineers by 17
Western Michigan at Illinois - Illini by 3
Buffalo at (6) Georgia - Bulldogs by 49
Elon at North Carolina - Tar Heels
Idaho State at Air Force - Falcons
Nevada at California - Golden Bears by 41
William & Mary at Maryland - Terrapins
Nicholls State at Oregon State - Beavers
Richmond at Virginia - Cavaliers
Bowling Green at (23) Florida - Falcons by 3
Miami at Boston College - Eagles by 43
Southern Miss at (17) Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 34
Northern Iowa at (12) Wisconsin - Badgers
Iowa at Northern Illinois - Hawkeyes by 10
Eastern Kentucky at Purdue - Boilermakers
Colorado State vs. Colorado - Rams by 11
Southern at New Mexico - Lobos
Murray State at (7) Florida State - Seminoles
Youngstown State at Pittsburgh - Panthers
Liberty at Wake Forest - Demon Deacons
(14) Clemson vs. Auburn - Clemson Tigers by 23
Jacksonville State at (10) Arkansas - Razorbacks
Chattanooga at South Florida - Bulls
Austin Peay at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers
North Texas at (3) LSU - Tigers by 37
Southeastern Louisiana at Missouri - Tigers
Central Arkansas at Mississippi - Rebels
Florida International at Duke - Blue Devils by 17
Savannah State at (19) Oklahoma State - Cowboys
Tennessee-Martin at Memphis - Tigers
Lamar at Louisiana-Lafayette - Ragin Cajuns
Jackson State at Mississippi State - Bulldogs
South Dakota State at Kansas - Jayhawks
Missouri State at (22) Kansas State - Wildcats
Northwestern State at Texas Tech - Red Raiders
Hawaii at (1) USC - Trojans by 46
Indiana State at Indiana - Hoosiers
Texas State at Houston - Cougars
Wyoming at (15) Texas - Longhorns by 31
(8) Michigan vs. (2) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 3
Rutgers at Tulane - Scarlet Knights by 22
Weber State at Fresno State - Bulldogs
Toledo at Arizona - Rockets by 21
San Diego State at Washington - Huskies by 24
Arkansas State at (5) Oregon - Ducks
(4) Oklahoma at UTEP - Sooners by 44

Sunday

Kentucky at (25) Louisville - Cardinals by 12
SMU at Baylor - Mustangs by 21

Monday

Georgia Tech at (16) Virginia Tech - Hokies by 3

My pick percentage last season was 71.6%, up from 66% the previous season. Let's see if I can hit 75% this season.

College Football Preseason Rankings

It's just 3 weeks until football finally returns, and it's time to predict how each team will fare during the upcoming season. Unlike the national polls, which are based solely on the opinions of coaches and media, my preseason rankings are based on last season's performance combined with a formula determining how intact last season's team is coming into this season. The result has several teams that are expected to be here, along with several teams that will surprise everyone, myself included. These are the 25 teams which should perform best this season, with last season's final ESPN ranking in parentheses, and this season's best predicted finish also included.

Rank. (Last) Team (2011 Rec) 2012 Best (ESPN)
1. (16) Kansas State (10-3) 12-0 (21)
2. (NR) USC (10-2) 11-1 (3)
3. (1) Alabama (12-1) 12-0 (2)
4. (18) West Virginia (10-3) 11-1 (11)
5. (15) Oklahoma (10-3) 10-2 (4)
6. (9) Michigan (11-2) 10-2 (8)
7. (28) Texas (8-5) 10-2 (15)
8. (NR) Utah (8-5) 12-0 (32)
9. (24) Nebraska (9-4) 12-0 (16)
10. (23) Florida State (9-4) 12-0 (7)
11. (13) TCU (11-2) 9-3 (17)
12. (NR) Air Force (7-6) 11-1 (NR)
13. (NR) California (7-6) 9-3 (NR)
14. (NR) Vanderbilt (6-7) 10-2 (NR)
15. (27) Missouri (8-5) 10-2 (43)
16. (2) LSU (13-1) 11-1 (1)
17. (22) Clemson (10-4) 11-1 (14)
18. (NR) Pittsburgh (6-7) 10-2 (NR)
19. (8) South Carolina (11-2) 9-3 (9)
20. (36) Notre Dame (8-5) 9-3 (24)
21. (NR) Oregon State (3-9) 11-1 (NR)
22. (3) Oklahoma State (12-1) 7-5 (19)
23. (NR) Purdue (7-6) 10-2 (NR)
24. (NR) SMU (8-5) 11-1 (NR)
25. (30) Rutgers (9-4) 9-3 (41)

Teams Falling from Last Season's Final Rankings

(4) Oregon
(5) Arkansas
(6) Boise State
(7) Stanford
(10) Michigan State
(11) Wisconsin
(12) Baylor
(14) Houston
(17) Virginia Tech
(19) Southern Miss
(20) Georgia
(21) Cincinnati
(25) Brigham Young

ESPN Preseason Ranked Teams Not Ranked Above

Oregon (5)
Georgia (6)
Arkansas (10)
Wisconsin (12)
Michigan State (13)
Stanford (18)
Virginia Tech (20)
Boise State (22)
Florida (23)
Auburn (25)

Ranked Teams by Conference

Big 12 - 6
SEC - 5
Pac 12 - 4
Big 10 - 3
ACC - 2
Big East - 2
MWC - 1
Ind - 1
CUSA - 1

Kansas State is the biggest surprise on this list, jumping clear to the #1 spot without even reaching the top 20 of the Coaches Poll, but the pick makes sense. They play in the deepest conference in the nation, and finished last season with just three losses, all to teams that finished in my top 10 last season. Add to that the fact that they are returning every important starting player from last season's team, and you have the makings of a powerful team. Will they finish #1? That depends on how they play on the road, where they face Oklahoma, West Virginia, and TCU this season. If they can make it through those games unscathed, we may be looking at the first non-SEC national champion in 7 years.

USC is back after several years of ineligibility due to NCAA sanctions, and they look like they are ready to resume their spot as one of the top teams in the country. They lost only twice last season, but with Matt Barkley returning for his senior season, they look poised to win the Pac 12 title yet again. Their only loss in the final 2 months of last season was a triple overtime thriller against Stanford, and they closed their season with a 50-0 thrashing of rival UCLA.

The defending national champs may have lost Trent Richardson to the NFL, but if history is any indicator, Alabama will find another great running back to take his place, just as Richardson filled the void left by Mark Ingram a few seasons ago. The SEC has won the last 6 national titles, and Alabama seems like the favorite to take the conference title this season, which puts them in the driver's seat for a possible repeat, which would be the first of the BCS era.

West Virginia moves to the Big 12 after another mediocre season in the Big East, but with a roster that is mostly intact and most of their toughest games scheduled at home, the Mountaineers could actually win the conference in their first year. The Big 12 became much stronger in the offseason, adding the conference champions from the Big East and Mountain West while getting rid of two of its middle-of-the-road teams to the SEC. Whichever team comes out of this loaded conference has a great argument for being included in the title game.

Check back over the next couple weeks as a get my opening weekend predictions posted and give you my preseason NFL rankings as well.

Top 100 NBA Players: 2012 Update

It was only a couple of weeks ago that I finished my countdown of the top 100 NBA players of all time, but since then another season has ended, and I've spent some time adding in the new set of statistics to determine new spots in the rankings for current players. Here is how that list looks now, with previous ranking in parentheses. Current players are in bold.

1. (1) Michael Jordan
2. (2) Wilt Chamberlain
3. (3) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. (5) Kobe Bryant
5. (4) Karl Malone
6. (6) Shaquille O'Neal
7. (7) Magic Johnson
8. (8) Larry Bird
9. (12) LeBron James
10. (9) Tim Duncan

11. (10) Jerry West
12. (11) Hakeem Olajuwon
13. (13) Elgin Baylor
14. (19) Kevin Garnett
15. (17) Dirk Nowitzki
16. (14) Bill Russell
17. (15) Clyde Drexler
18. (16) Oscar Robertson
19. (18) Scottie Pippen
20. (20) Charles Barkley

21. (27) Dwyane Wade
22. (21) Bob Pettit
23. (22) David Robinson
24. (23) George Mikan
25. (24) John Havlicek
26. (25) Julius Erving
27. (26) Moses Malone
28. (33) Paul Pierce
29. (28) Elvin Hayes
30. (29) Jason Kidd

31. (30) Patrick Ewing
32. (31) Rick Barry
33. (32) Allen Iverson
34. (34) George Gervin
35. (35) Gary Payton
36. (36) Bob Cousy
37. (40) Pau Gasol
38. (37) James Worthy
39. (38) Vince Carter
40. (39) Walt Frazier

41. (41) Alex English
42. (68) Kevin Durant
43. (42) Ray Allen
44. (43) Isiah Thomas
45. (44) Dolph Schayes
46. (45) Dennis Johnson
47. (46) Kevin McHale
48. (47) Dave Cowens
49. (48) Dominique Wilkins
50. (49) Reggie Miller

51. (50) Shawn Marion
52. (51) Chris Webber
53. (52) Bob McAdoo
54. (53) Tracy McGrady
55. (54) Steve Nash
56. (55) Richard Hamilton
57. (56) Dwight Howard
58. (57) Gus Williams
59. (84) Rajon Rondo
60. (58) Amare Stoudemire

61. (NR) Russell Westbrook
62. (59) Adrian Dantley
63. (60) John Stockton
64. (61) Robert Parish
65. (62) Shawn Kemp
66. (63) Chauncey Billups
67. (66) Carmelo Anthony
68. (64) Sam Jones
69. (65) Michael Finley
70. (87) Tony Parker

71. (67) Sidney Moncrief
72. (69) Elton Brand
73. (70) Kevin Johnson
74. (71) Latrell Sprewell
75. (72) Horace Grant
76. (73) Anfernee Hardaway
77. (74) Antoine Walker
78. (75) Grant Hill
79. (86) Chris Bosh
80. (76) Hal Greer

81. (77) Jo Jo White
82. (78) Walt Bellamy
83. (79) Joe Fulks
84. (80) Bob Lanier
85. (81) Mark Aguirre
86. (82) Chris Mullin
87. (83) Neil Johnston
88. (91) Carlos Boozer
89. (NR) Chris Paul
90. (85) Max Zaslofsky

91. (88) Jerry Lucas
92. (89) Manu Ginobili
93. (90) Bill Sharman
94. (92) Tom Chambers
95. (93) Terry Porter
96. (94) Fat Lever
97. (95) Jeff Hornacek
98. (NR) Joe Johnson
99. (96) Walter Davis
100. (97) Bob Dandridge

Dropped Out

(98) Jerome Kersey
(99) Lamar Odom
(100) Cliff Hagan

Of the 30 active players among the top 100, 15 moved upward in the overall rankings at the conclusion of the season, and three of them entered the top 100 for the first time. Several who are still in their prime years still found themselves dropping this season, like Manu Ginobili, Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony, and Dwight Howard, while others are still active but peaked long ago and won't be moving up again, such as Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter, and Grant Hill.

LeBron James cemented his status as one of the top 10 players of all time at age 27 by winning his first NBA Championship, with the regular season and Finals MVP awards to go along with it. Another good year should vault him to #6, while another great year like this one could get him to #5, or even #4 if something happens to Kobe Bryant.

Kevin Durant made one of the biggest jumps with his third straight season leading the league in scoring, and getting his team to the NBA Finals for the first time helped his cause even more. Very few players have led the league in scoring 3 straight seasons, the others being Bob McAdoo, Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, George Mikan, Neil Johnston, and George Gervin. Of those, only Jordan and Wilt ever went for more than 3 in a row, which the 23-year-old will be trying to accomplish next season.

Rajon Rondo also moved up big following his amazing playoff performance, in which he recorded four triple-doubles, which gives him 10 for his career in the playoffs, tying him for third all time at age 25. He recorded one of them in game 7 of the second round, which allowed him to join Larry Bird as the only Celtics to post a triple-double in a game 7, then he did it again in the Eastern Conference Finals. He's still ranked behind his "Big 3" teammates on the all-time list, but by the time he retires he may be the greatest of the four.

Russell Westbrook debuted at #61 after being one of the top players all season long, then helping to lead the Thunder to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1996, when they were still the Seattle Supersonics. With him and fellow 23-year-old Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City has a great foundation laid for a decade of dominance.

Tony Parker established himself as San Antonio's star this year, leading them to the league's best record and 10 straight wins to open the playoffs before his team collapsed against the much younger Thunder. Parker still has several good seasons in front of him, and could end up inside the top 25 if he can keep the Spurs near the top of the league for the remainder of his prime years.

Chris Paul had yet another strong season, and this time he matched his longest playoff run by reaching the second round of the playoffs with his new team, the Los Angeles Clippers. He also led the league in steals for the fourth time, and was among the top 4 in assists for the sixth straight season. All he needs is a deep playoff run to make a real move up the rankings.

It took 11 seasons, 7 playing at an All-Star level, for Joe Johnson to make his way into the top 100, but he still hasn't seen a win in the second round of the playoffs, which is the main thing holding him back from becoming a top-50 caliber player. Maybe his trade to Brooklyn will give him the supporting cast he needs to take the next step, although it could decrease his numbers enough that it won't be all that helpful.

Top 100 NBA Players: #1

Michael Jordan

(Kalb: #3, Simmons: #1, BBR: #1)

Ask 100 people who the greatest player of all time is, and the top response will most likely be Michael Jordan, but it would be far from a landslide. Many others would get a significant number of votes, from Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, and Oscar Robertson to Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, and even LeBron James.  So what makes Michael Jordan the best player of all time?

There are five factors that I feel qualify a player to be considered one of the greatest of all time. Those are offensive and defensive prowess, regular season and playoff dominance, and longevity. By using these 5 factors, I'll show that Michael Jordan is the greatest player of all time.

First, offensive prowess. The purpose of offense is to score points, and there has never been a greater scorer than Michael Jordan. Wilt Chamberlain may own the record for points in a game and points per game for a full season, but Michael Jordan owns the record for most points per game over a full career. Among the top 20 players of all time, the five with the highest career scoring averages are, in order:

Michael Jordan
Wilt Chamberlain
LeBron James
Elgin Baylor
Jerry West

Next, defensive prowess. This one is a little tougher to define, especially since the All-Defensive Team has only existed since 1969, Bill Russell's final season. Three players have appeared on the All-Defensive First Team nine times in their career, and if you add in Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain, both of whom were said to have blocked at least 8 shots in a game quite regularly, this is the list you come up with:

Michael Jordan
Kobe Bryant
Kevin Garnett
Bill Russell
Wilt Chamberlain

Then let's consider regular season dominance. Michael Jordan was the best player in the league for his final 9 seasons with the Chicago Bulls, and would have made it at least 11 if he hadn't kept retiring prematurely. He was the best player in 1988, and he was the best player in 1998, a feat only Kareem can match with his 1970 and 1980 seasons. The list of players who spent the longest time as the league's top star is as follows:

Wilt Chamberlain
Michael Jordan
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
LeBron James
Larry Bird

Perhaps the most important category is playoff dominance. The whole point of playing the game is to win championships, and Jordan was the best player on more champions than anybody but Bill Russell. He made 6 trips to the NBA Finals in his career, and won all 6 times. The record for highest scoring average in a Finals series is 41.0, and it's no surprise that Jordan holds that record for his performance against the Phoenix Suns in 1993. Here is the list of the players who have led their teams to the most championships:

Bill Russell
Michael Jordan
Magic Johnson
Tim Duncan
Shaquille O'Neal
Larry Bird

Finally, let's look at longevity. When looking at this category, I'm looking at more than just playing for a long time. You must also play at a high level for a long period of time, and Michael Jordan fits that bill as well. In his first game after turning 40, he obliterated the old record for points by a player of that age. Kareem had held the record of 27, but Jordan poured in 43 that night, and scored at least 30 points 9 other times after his 40th birthday, meaning he owns the 10 highest-scoring games for a 40-year old player. Here are the 5 players who had the most productive seasons after the age of 35:

Karl Malone
Elgin Baylor
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Michael Jordan
Jerry West

There's only one player that appears on all 5 of these lists, and you've probably already guessed who that is. It's also worth noting that only one other player appears even 3 times on these lists, and that is Wilt Chamberlain, the player I ranked as second-best all time. Michael Jordan is the only player in history who has been dominant in every important facet of the game, which is what makes him the greatest of all time.

With that in mind, are there any current players that have a chance at displacing Jordan at the top? In my opinion, there are only two that have a chance, and the two happen to be facing each other in the NBA Finals right now. The obvious one is LeBron James, who has already cracked two of these lists, and has already made the All-Defensive First Team four times, and has a head start on the longevity since he started so young. A championship would start him down the road in the fifth category as well. The other is Kevin Durant, who is a great offensive player and is improving on defense, and also entered the league very young, which could help his longevity.

While there is nobody who can measure up to what Wilt did in his first few years, Jordan became just as dominant a player after that point, even beating Wilt at the tail of of his career, when Wilt was returning from injury and Jordan from retirement. What sets Jordan apart is that he took home 6 NBA titles, while Wilt only won 2, and he wasn't even the best player during one of those playoff runs. All of this leads me to believe that Michael Jordan is still the best player ever to play the game of basketball.

Top 100 NBA Players: #2

Wilt Chamberlain

(Kalb: #2, Simmons: #6, BBR: #2)

Every serious basketball fan has an opinion about Wilt Chamberlain. Either he is the greatest basketball player who ever lived, or he was vastly overrated and couldn't win when it mattered. The truth is somewhere between the two, and I'll explain why.

First of all, when it comes to regular season dominance, Wilt Chamberlain is the best player to ever set foot on a basketball court. Most people know about his 100-point game, but just one year earlier he also grabbed 55 rebounds in a game, which is still a record. But let's start back at the beginning.

When Wilt entered the NBA in 1959, he broke his first record before playing a game when he signed the richest contract in history, making $30,000 during his rookie season. That season turned out to be the most dominant rookie season ever in any sport, as he set new records for scoring and rebounding and won the All-Star MVP, regular season MVP, and Rookie of the Year awards. He also took a Warriors team that had missed the playoffs the previous year all the way to the Conference Finals, where they lost to the Boston Celtics, which would be a recurring theme throughout his career.

Two years later he had the most dominant season in history, even by today's standards. That year he averaged 50.4 points, 25.7 rebounds, and 2.4 assists while playing 48.5 minutes per game. That season represents two records which will never be broken, and his rebounding record (27.2 per game) from the previous season is just as unreachable today. The fact that games have only 48 minutes make his minutes record the most solid record in sports, and it was reached by playing all but a handful of minutes during the season and having several games go into overtime.

The scoring record is also pretty impressive. During that season he reached 50 points 45 times, which is more than any other player has done it in an entire career. Michael Jordan had 37 50-point outings for second on the all-time list, but he's far behind Wilt's 122. His 100-point game is also interesting, since he could have scored more, but the game ended immediately after he scored his final basket and the fans rushed the court. The game was such a blowout that the referees decided to call off the final minute.

Throughout the process of unveiling these rankings, I have made a point of mentioning that the pace of the game was much faster in the 1960's, which caused statistics to balloon out of proportion. In 1962 alone, Wilt averaged 50 points, Oscar Robertson averaged a triple-double, and Elgin Baylor had the highest scoring season ever by anyone not named Wilt. In order to bring these numbers into perspective, I've adjusted them to the pace of today's game, and in most cases it makes those seasons become just very good, but Wilt's 1962 season still stands the test of time. Here are what his averages look like adjusted for inflation:

Chamberlain (1962) adjusted - 40.3 pts, 15.2 reb, 2.1 ast

Even adjusted, Wilt's 1962 season stands alone as the greatest season ever in the NBA. Through the 1960's, he was the best player in every single season, even if he only won 4 MVP awards. So how can a player who was the best in the league for 10 seasons (a record, by the way) not be the best player of all time? The answer lies in the other argument I mentioned in the opening paragraph, that Wilt was not a winner.

While Wilt was the best regular season player of all time, he had the misfortune of running into the best playoff player of all time 8 times in one decade, that man being Bill Russell. In those 8 seasons, the Celtics beat Wilt's teams 7 times, each time in the Conference Finals or the Finals, with Wilt and the 76ers triumphing once, in 1967. With the help of Jerry West, he was able to win a second championship in 1972.

The persistent rumor that Wilt's teams did not win was slightly overblown. In 14 seasons, his teams won two championships, reached 6 NBA Finals, and played in the Conference Finals 12 times. If Boston and Philadelphia had been in different conferences, it's likely he would have played in the Finals at least 10 times. Even in his final season, he was still a great player, averaging a league-leading 18.6 rebounds per game and setting a league record with a 72.7% field goal percentage at age 36.

Wilt had most of the factors that lead to a high ranking on this list. He was a great offensive player. He was a great defensive player. He was a great player in the regular season. He had the longevity that is needed for greatness. What he lacked, and what ultimately kept him from the #1 spot was that greatness in the playoffs, where he was good but not great. Every player I've chronicled so far is lacking at least somewhat in one of those areas, but in my next post you'll see the one player who can be considered great in every one of those areas.

Kareem's numbers throughout the early part of his career were pretty incredible, but they look pretty average when compared to those of Wilt's first decade. Kareem may have won more championships, although half of those had more to do with Magic than Kareem, and Kareem didn't dominate a decade the way Wilt did the 1960's, although he is one of only two players to come close. It seems pretty clear to me that Wilt was the better overall player.

NBA Finals Preview

The waiting game is over. Only two teams remain. Miami, eager to make up for last season's disappointment in the Finals, closed out the Eastern Conference Finals with two huge wins over the Boston Celtics. Oklahoma City, a team that has been on the rise for years, came back from a 2-0 deficit and ended San Antonio's 20-game winning streak with four straight wins to advance to their first Finals since the move to the Midwest. It's shaping up to be a very fun and competitive Finals.

Oklahoma City is entering the NBA Finals with three days more rest than the Miami Heat, thanks to their ability to close out their series a game earlier than their new opponent. But how much does rest really matter? In the history of the NBA, 61 teams have entered the Finals with at least a day more rest than their opponent, and those teams have a record of 34-27, for a winning percentage of .557. It's not a huge advantage, but it has been becoming more important in recent years, so that gives a slight advantage to OKC.

There is also a great individual matchup going on in this year's Finals. For only the 6th time in history, the league's MVP is going up against the league's scoring leader for the championship trophy. In the previous 5 matchups, the scoring leaders have a 3-2 advantage, but all three of those victories belong to Michael Jordan, when they beat LA in 1991, Phoenix in 1993, and Utah in 1997. In each of those seasons Jordan probably should have been the MVP, so maybe they shouldn't really count. I would say that the advantage here goes to Miami.

The biggest factor in the series may be home court advantage. In NBA Finals history, the team with home court advantage has won 47 out of 65 series, for a winning percentage of .723. Add to that the fact that Oklahoma City is undefeated on its home court in this season's playoffs, and all they need to do is win those four games and the title is theirs. Big advantage to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Overall, I put the odds of the Thunder winning the series at 55.8%, and my Finals pick is Oklahoma City in 7 games.

Top 100 NBA Players: #3

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

(Kalb: #5, Simmons: #3, BBR: #5)

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar dominated the 1970's in a way no decade has been dominated before or since, then adjusted to his role as sidekick to another superstar better than any other player in history, which allowed him to finish his career with 6 championships and 10 NBA Finals appearances.

There was no doubt that Kareem (then Lew Alcindor) would be the top pick in the 1969 NBA Draft, after he led UCLA to an 88-2 record in 3 seasons and 3 straight NCAA championships, where he was named the Most Outstanding Player each time. He easily won the Rookie of the Year trophy, and should have been given the MVP as well, but it was awarded to Willis Reed, who led the New York Knicks to the league's best record and their first championship that season. Here are how their numbers stacked up that year:

Alcindor - 28.8 pts, 14.5 reb, 4.1 ast, .518 FG%, .653 FT%
Reed - 21.7 pts, 13.9 reb, 2.0 ast, .507 FG%, .756 FT%

Although Reed may have led his team to a few more wins (Milwaukee had the second-best record), it's very easy to see that Kareem had the bigger impact, leading a team in its second year of existence to the league's second-best record and a trip to the Conference Finals. In fact, from 1969-1980, a span of 11 seasons, Kareem was the best player 8 times, with the only exceptions coming in two seasons in which he missed time with a broken hand and one season in which George Gervin was on top of his game. He holds the record for most MVP's won, with 6, but I believe he should have been awarded 8.

Even with how great he was for so long, he was only able to make it to 3 NBA Finals during his time as team leader, winning twice. There were even two seasons right during his peak seasons in which his teams missed the playoffs completely, which no other top 10 player can say. That all changed in 1981, when Magic Johnson became the center of the Lakers' offense and Kareem became their #2 star.

In the final 8 seasons of Kareem's career in Los Angeles, the Lakers made it to the Finals 7 times, and Kareem was a major contributor for most of those teams, although by the time he retired he was not near the player he had once been, posting just 10 points per game along with fewer than 5 rebounds.

Kareem is the NBA's all-time leader in All-Star appearances, MVP awards, points scored, and minutes played, and he is also one of only 3 players in history to win the scoring title, MVP, and Finals MVP in the same season, along with Michael Jordan and Shaquille O'Neal. That season was 1971, just his second season as a pro, when he averaged 31.7 points and 16.0 rebounds, took 133 out of 153 MVP votes, then led Milwaukee to the title by winning 12 of 14 in the playoffs and sweeping the Baltimore Bullets in the Finals. He was the first to do it, and it wouldn't happen again for 20 years, when Jordan won his first title.

In terms of longevity, Kareem and Karl Malone are basically even. When you look at playoff success, the edge goes to Abdul-Jabbar, who won a couple of titles as the star player and several more playing with Magic as the star. When looking at regular season dominance, there is no doubt that Kareem was better, as he was the best player 8 times, while Malone spent nearly as long as the league's #2 player. Overall, it's easy to see that Kareem was the better player, and deserves the #3 spot among the all-time greats.