College Football Preseason Rankings

The college football season starts off this Saturday with 5 games to allow the teams that travel to Hawaii this year to get an extra home game without losing a bye week. In preparation, I have gone through the rosters of all 130 FBS teams to determine how much talent was lost or gained, then adjusted each team's final rating from last season according to how much talent they lost in comparison to the average team. The defending champion Clemson Tigers lost some huge pieces, most notably quarterback DeShaun Watson, causing the Tigers to take one of the biggest slides in the initial rankings. Meanwhile, last year's runner-up, Alabama, is returning most of their roster, and enters the season with a commanding hold on the #1 spot, which is a familiar feeling for the Crimson Tide. Many feel the Tide could run the table and enter the playoff undefeated, but I see a few teams with a chance to knock them off, most notably Vanderbilt and Auburn, who both host Alabama this season. Here are my full preseason rankings, along with projected final records, with projected conference champs in bold:

				Rec		ProjRec
TW	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	SOS	MOV
1	1	Alabama	-29.18			11	1
2	5	Washington	-24.27			11	1
3	11	Penn State	-21.5			10	2
4	8	LSU	-20.96			10	2
5	14	Auburn	-19.73			9	3
6	3	Ohio State	-19.53			11	1
7	4	Michigan	-17.4			10	2
8	18	Colorado	-16.12			9	3
9	6	USC	-15.9			10	2
10	20	Florida	-15.74			9	2
11	13	Louisville	-14.94			10	2
12	69	Wake Forest	-14.02			9	3
13	21	Washington State	-13.69			9	3
14	55	Vanderbilt	-13.57			9	3
15	47	Troy	-13.55			10	2
16	10	Wisconsin	-13.38			10	2
17	7	Oklahoma	-12.87			9	3
18	25	Kansas State	-12.6			9	3
19	59	TCU	-12.04			9	3
20	2	Clemson	-11.55			8	4
21	27	Oklahoma State	-10.91			9	3
22	46	Memphis	-10.44			10	2
23	44	Northwestern	-9.984			9	3
24	28	Appalachian State	-9.826			10	2
25	31	NC State	-9.677			8	4
26	12	Florida State	-9.6			7	5
27	16	Western Kentucky	-9.134			10	2
28	9	Miami	-8.751			9	3
29	34	South Florida	-8.214			10	2
30	52	Colorado State	-8.125			8	4
31	57	Georgia	-8.016			7	5
32	37	Houston	-7.493			9	3
33	19	Stanford	-6.774			7	5
34	15	Western Michigan	-6.678			9	3
35	66	Army	-6.666			9	3
36	32	San Diego State	-6.515			10	2
37	41	Minnesota	-5.909			8	4
38	24	Temple	-5.477			8	4
39	60	UCLA	-5.303			6	6
40	40	Toledo	-5.043			9	3
41	17	Virginia Tech	-4.725			7	5
42	76	Missouri	-4.511			7	5
43	45	Georgia Tech	-4.396			6	6
44	58	Mississippi State	-4.361			6	6
45	30	Pittsburgh	-4.248			9	3
46	39	Utah	-3.892			6	6
47	35	West Virginia	-3.829			7	5
48	33	Boise State	-3.663			7	5
49	22	Texas A&M	-3.582			6	6
50	43	Notre Dame	-3.468			6	6
51	64	Arkansas State	-3.168			9	3
52	62	UCF	-2.989			8	4
53	89	Eastern Michigan	-2.823			8	4
54	71	Oregon State	-2.778			5	7
55	88	Arizona State	-2.601			6	6
56	91	SMU	-2.502			8	4
57	74	Duke	-2.326			6	6
58	51	Air Force	-2.23			7	5
59	56	Old Dominion	-1.639			9	3
60	85	South Carolina	-1.217			6	6
61	61	Kentucky	-0.811			5	7
62	53	Baylor	-0.6			6	6
63	90	Utah State	-0.557			6	6
64	36	BYU	-0.177			7	6
65	80	UT San Antonio	0.1522			9	3
66	75	New Mexico	0.8258			6	6
67	29	Tulsa	0.9146			5	7
68	81	Boston College	0.9775			5	7
69	94	Miami (OH)	0.9905			8	4
70	38	Iowa	1.0936			6	6
71	65	Texas	1.1895			5	7
72	26	North Carolina	1.2593			5	7
73	23	Tennessee	1.6649			5	7
74	87	Iowa State	1.8187			5	7
75	42	Louisiana Tech	2.4302			8	4
76	73	Indiana	2.5607			5	7
77	86	Middle Tennessee	2.6617			7	5
78	54	Arkansas	2.6989			5	7
79	82	Southern Miss	3.0117			8	4
80	78	Maryland	3.1155			4	8
81	79	Ohio	3.2471			8	4
82	77	Idaho	3.4053			6	6
83	106	Kent State	3.9217			6	6
84	50	Ole Miss	4.024			5	7
85	92	Tulane	4.5259			5	7
86	98	Georgia State	5.0173			6	6
87	67	Texas Tech	5.0472			4	8
88	49	Nebraska	5.3357			4	8
89	109	UNLV	5.343			6	6
90	72	Oregon	5.4955			5	7
91	48	Navy	5.5319			4	8
92	68	California	5.8887			3	9
93	99	Ball State	6.0126			6	6
94	70	Michigan State	6.2964			4	8
95	95	Central Michigan	6.3679			5	7
96	63	Wyoming	6.7279			6	6
97	121	New Mexico State	6.8991			5	7
98	96	Syracuse	7.0804			3	9
99	101	Arizona	7.1465			4	8
100	118	Louisiana Monroe	7.3332			5	7
101	103	Illinois	7.7231			4	8
102	108	East Carolina	7.8			4	8
103	122	Florida Intl	7.9258			5	7
104	104	Hawaii	8.5596			5	7
105	112	Purdue	9.8425			3	9
106	102	Akron	10.149			4	8
107	105	Cincinnati	10.267			4	8
108	83	Georgia Southern	10.301			4	8
109	125	Florida Atlantic	10.467			5	7
110	84	Northern Illinois	10.478			4	8
111	123	Fresno State	10.835			4	8
112	117	UMass	10.969			4	8
113	100	Virginia	10.977			3	9
114	115	Kansas	11.848			3	9
115	113	Bowling Green	12.446			4	8
116	97	South Alabama	12.768			4	8
117	114	Rutgers	13.016			3	9
118	116	Charlotte	13.893			4	8
119	93	Louisiana	13.93			4	8
120	107	North Texas	14.664			4	8
121	126	Connecticut	14.996			2	10
122	119	Marshall	15.271			2	10
123	111	San Jose State	16.82			2	11
124	110	Nevada	17.996			2	10
125		Coastal Carolina	18.363			3	9
126		UAB	18.363			4	8
127	124	UTEP	20.839			2	10
128	120	Rice	21.748			2	10
129	128	Texas State	21.969			2	10
130	127	Buffalo	24.926			1	11